A nurse in Nigeria’s Maiduguri State Specialist Hospital reads out a diagnosis for the latest victim brought into the operating theatre: “25-year-old male. Bullet wound to the lower right limb.”
“The bullet exploded inside his leg,” surgeon Alberto Giudiceandrea told AFP as he prepared to perform a procedure for the International Committee of the Red Cross team working in the conflict-hit northeastern region.
Outside the hospital, there is little sign of violence on the well-kept streets of the state capital, giving credence to a belief that jihadists who launched an insurgency more than 12 years ago are now on the back foot.
But the continued arrivals of wounded men, women and children seeking treatment are a bloody reminder of the ebb and flow of a grinding war.
As typical during the dry season, Nigeria’s military is on the offensive, launching deadly air strikes on hideouts of Islamic State affiliated fighters.
Government troops have been emboldened by the death last year of Abubakar Shekau, leader of the Jama’tu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad known worldwide as Boko Haram, in a clash with rival group ISWAP.
Maiduguri lies in the heart of jihadist-torn northeastern Nigeria
Many hoped his death would mark a turning point in the conflict that has killed at least 40,000 people since 2009 and displaced 2.2 million more in Africa’s most populous country.
In the months that followed Shekau’s death, hundreds of fighters surrendered and local authorities started closing down camps for the internally displaced, urging people to return home.
But over that time ISWAP (Islamic State West Africa Province) reorganised itself, and after a brief lull the attacks have now fully resumed.
For the Islamic State group, which has lost influence in Syria and Iraq, Nigeria is now a key frontline.
– Mortar bombs, ambushes –
“What we are starting to see is a standoff, with ISWAP consolidating control of significant rural areas, while the army and air force are now more capable of repelling large-scale attacks on towns and cities,” said Nigeria researcher Vincent Foucher, of France’s CNRS research institute.
“The group is also expanding, since it took over areas previously under Shekau’s influence,” he added — a view shared by Tomasz Rolbiecki, an independent researcher on Islamic State´s attacks worldwide.
“ISWAP attacks are not as massive and deadly (as before) but at the same time they cover more areas” said Rolbiecki. “It’s a sustained operation.”
A civilian recovering from a bullet wound at the State Specialist Hospital in Maiduguri
The group is also adapting to the military’s improved defence, according to Foucher, “by intensifying the use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs), artillery and ambushes.”
Water-seller Abdulahi Isa, 30, was a victim of an ISWAP bomb launched on Maiduguri in December, during a visit by President Muhammadu Buhari to the city.
“A rocket fell in front of me… I just dropped to the ground,” said the father of three, both arms in casts as he recovers at the State Specialist Hospital.
In the women’s ward next door, Zahra Bulama, 40, was trying to console her daughter, Fatima. The 10-year-old, her head covered in bandages, was crying.
“We were trekking on the road when we walked on a mine,” said the mother.
Two of her eight children died that day in an ISWAP IED attack near their hometown of Konduga, she said. Young Fatima lost an eye and part of her face.
Physiotherapist Sanda Mohammed said the hospital is treating fewer such patients than before, but still receives “children with injuries beyond repair” whose “lives are changed forever.”
– Paying taxes –
ISWAP says it does not directly target Muslims unless they are affiliated to the government or security agencies. But analysts warn that the group is extorting money from an increasing number of ordinary citizens.
“Civilians are entering in contact with ISWAP, and paying taxes to them,” said Foucher. And although it’s unclear how many exactly are involved, he believes “at least hundreds of thousands” are in the group’s reach.
Homeless: A woman sits outside a makeshift shelter in the streets of Maiduguri
Borno Governor Babagana Zulum warned that ISWAP is “more sophisticated… well funded,” than its rivals.
“We should do everything possible to defeat ISWAP… Nigeria’s army has to restrategise, and defeat ISWAP,” he told reporters earlier this month, otherwise “ISWAP will be a threat to the entire nation”.
Since the end of January, the military says it has killed 180 fighters and arrested 130 others suspected of terrorism in the northeast.
But analysts worry it is not enough. Earlier this year, ISWAP released a 30-minute-long propaganda video, heavily featuring child soldiers.
For Rolbiecki, it was “a way of showing that… even after older, more experienced fighters are killed, they have a new generation ready to continue their fight.”
Boko Haram elements are also still active, with a surviving faction around nearby Lake Chad known as Bakura, and reports that a small number of fighters have moved to the northwest of the country.
AFP
