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2023: Peter Obi In Clear Lead With 40.37 Percent In New Nextier Polls Of Rural Voters

Peter Obi, the Presidential candidate of Labour Party (LP) has a clear lead over the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and All Progressive Congress (APC) counterparts, Atiku Abubakar and Bola Ahmed Tinubu in an opinion poll conducted on voters in across the six geopolitical zones ahead of the February 25, 2023 Presidential election.

In an ‘Electoral Poll of Rural Communities in Nigeria’ conducted by Nextier among survey respondents in rural communities in 12 Nigerian States, Peter Obi leads the voting intention at 40.37 percent.

“Atiku Abubakar follows at a distant 26.7 percent while Bola Amed Tinubu is at 20.47 percent.”

Nextier said that “Peter Obi has the highest net favourability of the presidential candidates amongst survey respondents at +30 percent. Atiku Abubakar is at +17.3 percent and Bola Tinubu at 4.98 percent. Kwankwaso is at -8.70 percent.”

Nextier poll shows that “Atiku Abubakar and Bola Tinubu are preferred by respondents with no educational attainments or people who chose not to disclose their educational statues.

“76.2 percent of survey respondents stated that Nigeria is moving in the wrong direction. Survey respondents stated that insecurity, bad governance, unemployment, and a weak economy are the most important issue in Nigeria today they want someone to solve

“Eight out of ten respondents are definite that nothing will make them change their minds and vote for another candidate.”

Nextier noted that “survey respondents stated that radio, social media and family/friends are the main channels through which they get information on the different presidential candidates

Other highlights of the survey include:

  • Peter Obi recorded the highest level of preference with all age ranges. Atiku Abubakar was second in each of those groups except for the 65 – 74 years group.
  • Atiku Abubakar has the highest preference among Moslems, while Peter Obi is preferred by respondents that self-identify as religious or not.
  • Atiku Abubakar and Bola Tinubu are preferred by respondents
    with no educational qualification while Peter Obi is preferred
    across most of the educational attainment groups.
  • While Atiku Abubakar is preferred by respondent who chose not to
    disclose their educational status (“blanks”), Peter Obi is preferred
    by respondents across most of the employment groupings.”

Nextier noted that it “conducted a face-to-face poll of registered voters in rural communities in 12 states in Nigeria.
– Rural communities, per the survey, are in local governments without tertiary educational institutions
– The Nextier survey team conducted the polls in two states per geo-political zone
– Target states included one PDP and one APC state in each geo-political region
– The survey excluded the home states of the leading presidential and vice-presidential candidates.

The States where the survey were conducted include North Central: Nasarawa (APC) | Benue (PDP); North East: Gombe (APC) | Bauchi (PDP); North West: Kebbi (APC) | Sokoto (PDP); South South: Cross River (APC) | Edo (PDP), South East: Imo (APC) | Abia (PDP) and South West: Ogun (APC) | Oyo (PDP).

Stating that the survey has a “Sample of N = 2,000,” Nextier stated that it “generated a margin of error of 2.2 percent at a 95 percent confidence interval; Sample was representative of age and gender demographics in the states while all survey respondents are registered to vote in the 2023 elections.

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