The entry of the military into the politics and governance of Niger Republic is yet another negative development in the growth of democracy and people-centred rule in that country and the West African sub-region in general. This clearly justifies the wide condemnation the coup has received from all and sundry, particularly the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which gave the coupists seven days to restore democratic order, warning that it would not foreclose the use of force to execute its ultimatum.
The regional body’s reaction is not unexpected as its new chairman, President Bola Tinubu of Nigeria has not just recently assumed the mantle of leadership, he had, barely two weeks before the coup, declared zero tolerance to military incursion and terrorism in the sub-region. All the same, the solution to the Niger crisis does not lie in military action, but a deep introspection of the underlying circumstances of coups in West Africa, as well as an admixture of political diplomacy.
To move headlong into military onslaught is very likely to escalate the problem beyond manageable level, even as it may not stop the coupists from carrying on.
The Niger coup signifies a seeming endlessness to the cycle of military incursions into the African political space. While the new ECOWAS leadership was warning against unconstitutional change of government in the sub-region early in July, little did it know that a coup was incubating in Niger Republic.
By July 26, 2023, the presidential guard toppled the civilian regime of Mohamed Bazoum. The coup would soon gain widespread support among the population with an optic that showed resentment of French imperialism in that country.
Matter-of-course, condemnation of the coup was swift from centres of imperialism and democracy promoting nations, namely, the United Nations, African Union, ECOWAS, United States, France, and Nigeria. Their condemnation converges around the need to restore constitutional order in Niger. The United Nations Secretary General, Antonio Gutierrez, “condemns in the strongest terms any effort to seize power by force and to undermine democratic governance, peace and stability in Niger… calls on all actors involved to exercise restraint and to ensure the protection of constitutional order.”
The African Union condemned the coup and urged “unanimous condemnation of this coup attempt, and for the immediate and unconditional return of the felon soldiers to their barracks.” Also, ECOWAS “condemns in the strongest terms the attempt to seize power by force and calls on the coup plotters to free the democratically elected president of the republic immediately and without any condition.”
Certainly, the unconstitutional take-over of power is condemnable, but there is a need for a sober interrogation of the reasons for the coup. The putschists pointed to rising insecurity and economic stagnation as reasons for take-over of government. Therefore, it became necessary to pre-empt “the gradual and inevitable demise” of the State. Informed analysts have pointed to other contradictions of the Nigerien society, such as ethnicity, the presence of foreign forces ostensibly fighting terrorism.
Ethnically, Bazoum comes from Niger’s ethnic Arab minority with allegations of having foreign origins. This was an issue in the run up to his election that he won with about 56 per cent of the votes. The military composed of the indigenous African ethnic groups apparently could not come to terms with this reality. The presence of French and American bases in the country equally undermines the country’s sovereignty. To make matters worse, French forces, expelled by both Mali and Burkina Faso, were invited into the country by Bazoum’s government in ways that pose a threat to the country’s military forces.
Economically, Niger is in dire straits. Inflation is soaring underlined by higher consumer food prices and the deteriorating international economic situation accounting for lower prices for its uranium. Its budget deficit rose to 6.6 per cent of GDP in 2022 from 6.1 per cent in 2021 due to public overspending over and above revenue levels.
Public debt rose slightly to 51.2 per cent of GDP in 2022 from 50.9 per cent in 2021. The country is laden with foreign loans that constitute about 65 per cent of public debt with risk of external debt distress. Its current account deficit that is often sustained by concessional loans and foreign direct investment, widened to 15.1 per cent of GDP in 2022 from 13.9 per cent in 2021. The country suffers from extreme poverty at about 42 per cent in 2021.
Terrorism writ large among the prevailing contradictions in Niger and the sub-region. This has informed the basing of U.S. military platforms in the sub-region. However, the increase in foreign forces in Niger, mainly, the U.S. and France, has not stopped insurgent attacks. There are several insurgent groups, such as Boko Haram, Al-Qaeda and Islamic State affiliates in the country.
These issues ought to gain the attention of the regional body more than a hasty ultimatum of seven days as a prelude to the possible use of force. This decision was hasty, and wrong-headed. While the regime of sanctions will compel a transition to democracy, the threat to use force by ECOWAS is ill-timed and uninformed by its prevailing circumstances.
Africa should think through its interest to avoid being a proxy to foreign forces. ECOWAS’ threat of an option of military intervention in Niger would seem an instigation of the U.S. and France. This is to be avoided because it will engender sub-regional crises that could destabilise the region and Africa in general to the advantage of forces bent on recolonising the continent. This consequence is foreseeable with the joint declaration of the governments in Mali and Burkina Faso seeing the use of force in Niger as a declaration of war on the African nation that would engender a joint response.
It is obvious that Nigeria will bear largely, in the main, the cost of a military option. There may be an initial handout by the West; it ends there. Notably, Nigeria itself, is battling insurgency, Boko Haram, bandits, armed herdsmen and Islamic State of West Africa, and has been unable to surmount these. Its security forces are spread thin across the country, which is burdened by a huge external debt. Without doubt, the country and the sub-region will be mired in an unending conflict that will spell doom for the sub-regional organisation.
Instead, ECOWAS under the leadership of Tinubu should initiate a dialogue with the coup leadership and seek a pacific solution through some power sharing arrangement due to the endogenous factors central to the current crisis.
For Nigeria, the Nigerien crisis provides a basis to rethink its foreign policy and to make use of its policy think-tanks like the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs instead of embracing impulsive and ad-hoc pronouncements.
