By Group Captain Sadeeq Garba Shehu (rtd)
Straight off, I signal that this post is titled “Explainer” and not “Excuser,” that is to say, I seek to explain but not excuse the phenomenon of coup, which is a contemporary governance issue in Africa.
First definition: A coup is an “illegal and overt attempts by the military or other elites within the State apparatus to unseat the sitting executive. A coup can be an attempted coup, a failed coup or a successful coup. And experts agree that a successful coup lasts for at least one week (7 days ); maybe the reason for ECOWAS 7-day deadline.
According to this definition, the target of a coup must be a sitting executive and the perpetrators must have formal ties to the national government. Movements that attempt to overthrow an entire government and which are led by those not connected to power, such as rebellions, insurgencies or mass protests, are not included.
While some definitions of coups limit the perpetrators to only military figures. Again, experts agree that the initial instigation of a coup attempt frequently involves civilian members of the government or politicians alone, with the military playing a later role in deciding whether the putsch will be successful. For example, a 1962 coup attempt led by Senegalese Prime Minister Mamadou Dia failed because he was unable to gain the military’s support.
Coup perpetrators must also be “within the State apparatus,” which excludes takeovers largely directed by foreign governments such as the fall of Ugandan President, Idi Amin, in 1979 at the hands of the Tanzanian military. This does not constitute a coup because foreign powers were the primary actors.
There is also another kind of coup as we saw in Chad that is called “dynasty coup.” In April 2021, after the death of the Chadian leader, Idriss Déby, the Army installed his son as interim President, leading a transitional military council. His opponents called it a “dynastic coup.”
COUPS IN AFRICA SINCE INDEPENDENCE
Overall, Africa has experienced more coups than any other continent.
By 2012, there had been over 200 coups and attempted coups in Africa, from their various times of independence.
There was a coup attempt every 55 days in the 1960s and 1970s, and over 90% of African States have had a coup experience.
The overall number of coup attempts in Africa remained remarkably consistent at an average of around four a year between 1960 and 2000.
There was a noticeable decline in the numbers of coups (and attempted coups) after 2000.
Coups in Africa had been declining for much of the past two decades.
In the 10 years before 2021, there had been on average less than one successful coup per year
But by 2010 coups in Africa have been on the increase.
Since 2010, there have been a total of 54 coups and attempted coups in Africa.
Out of the 54 ,16 were successful while 38 failed
COMPARISON OF AFRICAN NATIONS
Out of 54 countries on the African continent, 45 have had at least one coup attempt since 1950.
Narrowing the focus to only those countries that have experienced a successful takeover, one in which perpetrators hold power for at least seven days, that number drops to 36, or two-thirds of nations on the continent.
COUNTRIES WITH THE MOST COUPS
Sudan tops the list as the African country with the most coups — attempted and successful — since 1950, with 17, 6 were successful including the current one, while 9 failed.
While Burkina Faso has had fewer total coups attempts than Sudan in the same period, it has the highest number of successful coups, with eight, including January’s coup. In addition to the most recent putsch, coups were successfully carried out in Burkina Faso in 1966, 1974, 1980, 1982, 1983, 1987 and 2014. A coup was also attempted in 2015.
Burundi’s history has been marked by 11 separate coups, mostly driven by the tensions between the Hutu and Tutsi communities.
Sierra Leone experienced a total of 9 coups and attempted coups with 4 successful and 5 failed. (Using football League Table format you could say MP 9; D 0; W 4; L5; GF 0; GA 0; GD 0 )
Ghana has also had its share of military coups, with 9 total , 8 successful 1 failed
Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation, had a long history of coups following independence in 1960, with eight coup attempts — six of them successful while 2 failed . Since 1999, the country has transferred power through democratic elections and helped usher in an era of greater stability in West Africa and the continent as a whole.
COMPARISON BY SUB-REGION
In each decade between 1958 and 2008, West Africa had the highest number of coups on the continent, accounting for 44.4%.
Since 2010, there have been over 40 coups and attempted coups in Africa; with 20 occurring in West Africa and the Sahel (including Chad).
COMPARISON BY FRANCOPHONE /ANGLOPHONE DIVIDE
Between 1958 and 2008, most coups in Africa occurred in former French colonies, as did six of the 7 since 2019.
Similarly, 12 of the 20 coups in the sub-region since 2010 happened there.
GLOBAL COMPARISON AFRICA COMPARED TO THE WORLD
Globally, since 195,0 there have been a total of 486 coups and attempted coups out of which 242 were successful and 244 failed .
Of the 486 attempted or successful coups carried out around the world since 1950, Africa has seen 214, the most of any region, with 106 of them successful,
Next is Latin America with a total of 146 coups and attempted coups with 70 successful and 76 failed .
The continent with the least number of coups and attempted coups is South Asia with 16, 10 successful and 6 failed.
CONCLUSION: CAUSES OF COUP AND WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE TO STOP THEM
A look at the history of coups in West Africa suggests some recurring themes as causes. These show how likely more coups are and what needs to change to prevent them.
We can categorise the causes of coups in West Africa into internal and external factors. Internal are those that emanate from challenges of national governance. External are those concerning global dynamics with significant impact on governance and security on the continent.
Governance deficits, non-fulfillment of the entitlements of citizenship, frustrated masses (most of whom are young) and growing insecurity are chief among the internal causes. International factors, including external influence, are among the externals.
Foreign influence and strategic competition make coups more likely to occur. In the first four decades of independence, coups were set against Cold War politics as two global powers, the Soviet Union (now Russia) and the United States (U.S.) locked horns over the continent.
Like coups in the post-independence era, recent coups in West/Central Africa also have foreign fingerprints. For instance, Russia is cited in both the 2021 and 2020 coups in Mali as well as the latest one in Burkina Faso. Assimi Goïta, the leader of both coups in Mali, is also reported to have received U.S. training and assistance.
The influence of France in political developments in the sub-region is almost a given, due to its colonial ties to West Africa. Mahamat Déby’s covert coup in Chad, for example, received endorsement from Paris.
China, too, joined Russia in preventing France, which had the support of the U.S. and the EU (European Union), to have the UN Security Council support a decision to impose economic and border sanctions on Mali.
Indeed, whereas China criticised the putsch in Guinea, it has been quiet on Mali’s.Thus, in the 21st century too, the quest for strategic influence and advantage by foreign powers in Africa has involved them in coups in the continent. They tolerate local politics and authoritarianism as long as their strategic advantage is served.
THE WAY FORWARD
Either way, coups are rarely a solution to bad governance. The trend must be stopped in its tracks. Yet, it also invites a reassessment of the neo-liberal democratic project in Africa.
The conditions under which coups occur are dynamic. To avert future coups and respond to current ones, there must be a radical change of direction.
Countries, with the help of regional and global partners, must address governance deficits in the form of non-fulfillment of the entitlements of citizenship, socio-economic frustration, and growing insecurity.
Finally, a more sustainable response to coups is to eliminate the adverse socio-economic and political conditions in national and international politics that allow immediate causes of political instability to hide behind a democratic façade.
Group Captain Sadeeq Garba Shehu (rtd) is an international Defence and Security Consultant
