By Michael Clarke, Defence & Security Analyst,
Defence and security analyst Professor Michael Clarke explains why the Israeli government appears to be going in circles when it comes to the planned offensive on Rafah.
Contradictory statements have been coming from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his war cabinet, and Professor Clarke says there is a “structural reason” for this.
Mr Netanyahu has three cabinets – a war cabinet, security cabinet and general cabinet – and “hops between all three, basically saying what he needs to keep all three happy”.
Those causing the most problems for the Israeli Prime Minister are Itamar Ben-Gvir, his National Security Minister, and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.
Between them they control about 13 votes in Israel’s Knesset, which is made up of 120 seats.
Professor Clarke says this is “enough to bring Netanyahu down”, and both men have threatened they will bring down his government unless he attacks Rafah.
At the same time, Israel’s allies and the rest of the world are saying it cannot invade Rafah.
Therefore Mr Netanyahu is announcing he will go ahead with the offensive, but he won’t say when.
The Prime Minister is “trying all the time to get to the end of the day and still be in power”, Professor Clarke says.
He’s also facing domestic pressure from the general public, who fear the conflict in Gaza “could turn out to be a very existential war for them”.
Mr Netanyahu is deeply unpopular among Israelis and 100,000 people have been turning up on the streets to protest, Mr Netanyahu says.
Professor Clarke says that if Israel went to the polls now, Mr Netanyahu would “lose catastrophically” and he would also “be back in front of the court on corruption charges.”
Staying in power is “keeping him out of the courts and, some would say, keeping him out of prison”, Professor Clarke adds.
@Sky News
