The expected withdrawal of U.S. forces from Niger will endanger U.S. counter-terrorism operations and hand Russia more influence in Africa as American and western ties on the continent fracture.
Around 1,000 troops in Niger are expected to eventually withdraw from the country after the conclusion of ongoing high-level talks between Niamey and Washington following a military coup in the African country last year, the Pentagon has said.
A forced withdrawal from Niger is a major setback for U.S. military as it fights against Islamic extremist groups across the Sahel, a volatile region that stretches from Senegal in western Africa to the Red Sea.
At risk for the U.S. is not just keeping ISIS, Boko Haram and other insurgent groups in check, but also the growing influence of Russia, Iran and China, all of which are jockeying for power in Africa along with the West.
But Western powers like the U.S. and European Union seem to be losing the battle in the Sahel.
“There’s been this hollowing out of all of the international security cooperation,” said Joseph Siegle, director of research of the Africa Center for Strategic Studies at the Pentagon-funded National Defense University. “They were all part of a broader regional effort to try to support those countries.”
Siegle attributes the shift to a series of governments being toppled by military juntas and an anti-western disinformation campaign supported by malicious actors in Russia or other hostile nations. But he said closer ties with Russia will harm those countries in the future, because Moscow is not investing economically into those nations.
“These countries are going to feel huge strains, and they’ll continue to try to put on a good face to [show] this is working, but it’s not something they’re going to be able to sustain,” he added. “Something’s going to have to give here.”
The immediate risk of a Niger withdrawal is that the Sahel could erupt into more violence as the U.S. and France, along with other western powers, face eroding influence with military juntas that have close ties with Russia and other rival powers.
Threats from al-Qaeda and ISIS-linked insurgent groups have already spiked in other countries ruled by military governments, including Mali, which booted French forces in 2022 but has since seen terrorist groups double their territorial control.
@The HILL
