By Jide Olatuyi
President Bola Tinubu’s initial decision to enforce ECOWAS’ zero tolerance for coup d’états and unconstitutional change of government in Niger Republic marks a significant stance in West African regional politics. This analysis will examine the context, implications, and potential outcomes of Tinubu’s decision from various angles.
Context and Background
In July 2023, Niger Republic experienced a military coup, with President Mohamed Bazoum being ousted by the military. This event followed a troubling pattern in West Africa, where several countries, including Mali, Guinea, and Burkina Faso, have experienced coups in recent years. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has a longstanding principle of zero tolerance for unconstitutional changes of government, aiming to promote democracy and stability in the region.
As the newly inaugurated President of Nigeria, Tinubu assumed the Chairmanship of ECOWAS, placing him at the forefront of regional responses to the coup in Niger. His decision to enforce ECOWAS’ stance reflects both his commitment to regional stability and the expectations placed upon Nigeria as a key player in West African politics.
Strategic and Political Implications
1. Regional Stability and Security: Tinubu’s enforcement of ECOWAS’ policy underscores Nigeria’s leadership role in promoting democratic norms and stability in West Africa.
Niger is a strategic partner in the fight against terrorism, particularly against groups like Boko Haram and ISIS-West Africa. Political instability in Niger could exacerbate security challenges in the region, potentially spilling over into neighboring countries, including Nigeria.
2. Nigeria’s Diplomatic Leadership: By taking a firm stance, Tinubu aims to reassert Nigeria’s influence within ECOWAS and on the African continent. This move is critical for Nigeria to maintain its status as a regional hegemon and a proponent of democratic governance. It also serves to strengthen ECOWAS as a collective body capable of decisive action, enhancing its credibility and authority.
3. Domestic Political Considerations: Tinubu’s decision also has domestic implications. Demonstrating a commitment to democratic principles abroad can bolster his image at home, where issues of governance, security, and economic stability are pressing. This stance might help consolidate his support among Nigerians who favor strong leadership and adherence to democratic norms.
4. International Relations: Enforcing ECOWAS’ zero tolerance for coups aligns with broader international expectations from the United Nations, African Union, and other international bodies that advocate for democratic governance. This alignment could attract international support and assistance in dealing with the broader implications of instability in Niger and the Sahel region.
Challenges and Risks
1. Military Intervention: One of the primary tools at ECOWAS’ disposal is military intervention. However, this option is fraught with risks, including the potential for prolonged conflict, humanitarian crises, and regional destabilization. Tinubu must navigate these complexities, weighing the costs and benefits of such an intervention.
2. Diplomatic and Economic Measures: Sanctions and diplomatic isolation are other mechanisms ECOWAS might employ. While these can pressure the coup leaders, they also risk harming the civilian population and could potentially drive Niger closer to non-Western allies, complicating the geopolitical landscape. Though, some of these sanctions have been lifted to ease life for the population in Niger republic, it remains to be seen how the move have impacted the resolve of the coup leaders to reconsider the genuine steps towards democratic transition and to alter the shift in regional alliances.
3. Regional Unity: Enforcing a hardline stance requires the unanimous support of ECOWAS member states, which might have differing views on intervention and the prioritization of stability versus democracy. Maintaining unity within ECOWAS is crucial for the effectiveness of any collective action.
Potential Outcomes
1. Restoration of Democratic Governance: The ideal outcome is the restoration of President Bazoum or the establishment of a legitimate, civilian-led government. This would reinforce the norm against unconstitutional changes of government and stabilize the region.
2. Protracted Conflict: If ECOWAS’ measures, including potential military intervention, fail to resolve the situation quickly, the region could face prolonged conflict. This outcome would strain ECOWAS’ resources and could have severe humanitarian and security consequences.
3. Shift in Regional Alliances: The crisis in Niger might prompt a realignment of regional alliances, with countries in the Sahel seeking new partnerships outside traditional Western influence. This could alter the strategic dynamics in West Africa.
Conclusion
President Bola Tinubu’s decision to enforce ECOWAS’ zero tolerance for coups in Niger Republic is a bold assertion of Nigeria’s leadership and commitment to regional stability. While the move underscores Nigeria’s role as a promoter of democracy, it also entails significant risks and challenges. The success of this initiative depends on ECOWAS’ ability to implement effective measures, maintain regional unity, and navigate the complex geopolitical landscape. Ultimately, Tinubu’s approach will significantly impact the future of democratic governance and stability in West Africa.
April 29th, 2024
Jide OLATUYI is an International Development Policy Analyst
