By Michael Makovsky and Blaise Misztal, The HILL
Gaza is but one front in a wider Iran-Israel conflict that is already shifting northward to Lebanon. Recent senior Israeli warnings suggest a full-scale war between Israel and Iran’s powerful proxy Hezbollah is becoming more a question of when and not if.
Immediately after Hamas’s attack on Oct. 7, Israeli leaders feared that Hezbollah, with its 150,000-rocket arsenal and precision-guided munitions, might attack next and debated, but ultimately decided against, preempting it.
Israeli fears were not unfounded. In the past eight months, Hezbollah has launched almost 5,000 shorter-range projectiles at close-by Israeli communities, a significant amount that is increasingly intolerable.
Some 80,000 Israelis — the equivalent of about 3 million Americans — have either been made or chosen to flee their homes in the north. Meanwhile, the casualties —18 soldiers and at least nine civilians — and damage, including a recent wildfire, are mounting.
Israel has punished Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and beyond, seeking to create a buffer zone of up to 13 kilometers and enable Israelis to return to their northern homes. But that, coupled with U.S. mediation, hasn’t yet led to an agreement with Hezbollah.
Even if fighting in the north stops, any calm could be short-lived. After Oct. 7, Israel is no longer willing or able to coexist with Iranian-backed, genocidal terrorists on its borders, particularly one bristling with a rocket arsenal that can overwhelm Israeli air defenses, rain destruction on the country and protect Iran’s nuclear program.
Is it better for Israel to act sooner or later?
The argument for soon is that Israel must ensure its citizens return to their northern homes, both out of obligation and because their displacement undermines the founding promise of the Jewish state: that Jews will be safe to live anywhere within its borders.
Iranian nuclear progress is another pressing reason for Israel to act against Hezbollah soon.
With Tehran now capable of enriching up to a bomb’s worth of fissile material in less than two weeks, Israel might not be able to wait much longer to prevent a nuclear Iran. But that could require first eliminating the Hezbollah rockets with which Iran could retaliate for any Israeli strike. Hezbollah might not wish to face tremendous destruction by Israel to protect Iran’s nuclear program, obviating the need for Israeli preventive action, but most likely it will heed Tehran’s wishes.
But Israel also has good reasons to wait before escalating against Hezbollah. Not least of these is the urgency of finishing the fight in Gaza and freeing the remaining 116 Israeli hostages. Israel prefers not to stretch its forces and strain its weapons stocks further by simultaneously waging a war in its north and south.
Israel also needs to rest, reset and resupply. Eight months of war, with hundreds of thousands of reservists mobilized, have tested Israeli society and economy. Also, Israel would like to restock its weapons before engaging in a very demanding war in Lebanon. Moreover, in the next year or two, Israel’s innovative laser-based missile-defense system, Iron Beam, could be online, helping blunt Hezbollah’s rocket barrages.
Israel might also wish to wait until after the November U.S. presidential election to wage war against Hezbollah. It will likely need American military resupply, political cover and assistance dealing with Iran, but cannot now rely on such U.S. support.
It’s clear to all, from Dearborn to Tehran, that the White House believes continued Israel-Hamas fighting undercuts President Biden’s reelection, and that it considers an Israel-Hezbollah war even more politically damaging. Biden might feel liberated after the elections. If Donald Trump wins, he might give Israel more room to conduct its campaign.
A strong Israel, a non-nuclear Iran and a secure Middle East are vital U.S. interests. Full-throated U.S. support for preventive Israeli military action against Hezbollah is most likely to achieve them. The prospect of a U.S.-backed Israel taking the fight to Hezbollah, and even Iran’s nuclear program might be the one thing that quiets both Hezbollah’s guns and Tehran’s centrifuges.
But should a war prove necessary, U.S. support will ensure Israel restores the deterrence it lost after Oct. 7, Hezbollah is defanged, Iran can be prevented from crossing the nuclear threshold and regional peace accords can be broadened.
Israel will have to decide whether to go to war against Hezbollah sooner or later. To ensure a convincing victory that protects Israel and advances U.S. interests, the United States should stand beside it always.
Michael Makovsky, a former Pentagon official, is president and CEO of the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA). Blaise Misztal is JINSA’s vice president for policy.
