“In a democracy, the opposition is not only tolerated as constitutional but must be maintained because it is indispensable” – Walter Lippmann
With the third postponement of its National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting scheduled for today, October 24, 2024, the main opposition’s Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, is still in theater, gasping for breath.
By the vote allocation in the 2023 Presidential election, Prof Mahmoud Yakubu led Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) gave the PDP, 6,984,520 and the Labour Party (LP) 6,101,533 thereby making them the two leading opposition parties in the country to the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC) who got 8,794,726 in the allocation.
Based on that, the two political parties were supposed to provide all the needed heat in the polity to the ruling party. Going by that allocation, when you add the over one million votes of NNPP, the three main opposition parties got over 14m votes as against the ruling party’s 8m, meaning that their combination enjoys more follower-ship than the ruling party.
But strangely and disappointingly, the opposition parties have been all on oxygen, panting for breath and visibly unable to play that role meaningfully and diligently. Rather than provide the needed and expected opposition, the two parties are struggling to avert interment which is actually what the ruling party is desiring for them. The greed and entrenched corruption in the political party system in the country are providing suitable grounds for the ruling party to achieve their dreams of a one-party State where Bola Ahmed Tinubu will be the General Overseer.
When for the first time since 1999, a vicious and bestial politician in the person of Tinubu grabbed and held on to the political power at the topmost position of President, many watchers foretold that the opposition was going to be thoroughly bruised.
Not a few Nigerians are still in awe of how Tinubu made it to the top amid all the obstacles of terrible pieces of baggage on his neck as a cog. Notable characters like former Governor of Kaduna State, Nasir El Rufai, who had rated himself highly as a political wizard with some top-level IQ, are still in consternation and thoroughly bewildered about how his intelligence failed him on the Tinubu matter. But the public already knows that it was his greed and selfishness that led him into the Tinubu trench as he followed various positions he was deceitfully offered.
He fought for Muslim-Muslim ticket to accommodate himself but another person took it. He worked for Office of Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF) to come to the North and another person won. He eyed the Chief of Staff office but there was no vacancy as the Oduduwa sons would never let that out to anybody. And he was told to chose any Ministry and he chose Power and Gas and was the only Minister nominee who knew his Ministry before a screening. But he was finally thrown out. When you have a politician who can do this to a utility colleague without losing sleep, only God knows what an opponent will face. Maybe Nyesom Wike’s time is also coming.
Political fortune tellers had warned that with Tinubu as President, opposition politicians should brace up for harder times. They attributed their forecast to the fact that the man on the throne has been in opposition virtually all his political life and knows all the intrigues therein. He knew all the devious things he did to inconvenience the ruling government and would not want any done to him. Have you not heard of the old saying that a frequent user of cutlass detests cutlass holders getting at his back?
It did not take long before the picture started manifesting with the two main opposition parties, the PDP and the LP, virtually in disarray and in the last lap of their survival or death.
But the question that requires some scrutiny is whether the opposition’s bewilderment is really and entirely caused by President Tinubu and his ruling APC. The answer to the question is yes and no. Yes, because a Tinubu who has no political morals found the weaknesses of the opposition a great window to help him decimate instead of helping to strengthen them. No, because the opposition, especially the PDP, had already decimated itself before Tinubu came, and they merely provided a window for him. While it’s not in doubt that strong opposition is the basis for a strong democracy, that does not apply to a government from inception that lacks the needed People’s mandate and one that sees itself as being in power disingenuously.
Corruption has made Nigeria’s political system deficient and this is more apparent with the opposition that faces significant challenges that hinder its effectiveness. As a result, they lack the much-needed viable strength to offer an alternative to the ruling party, which has dominated the country’s politics for almost a decade now. The opposition’s inability to present a unified front and capitalize on the ruling party’s weaknesses of a failed governance has allowed the APC to maintain its grip on power through any means.
Since 2015, when APC got into power by defeating the PDP, ineffective leadership largely caused by corruption and infighting has made the party unable to play the new role. They have been lacking in vision, strategy and the charisma needed to inspire and mobilize the people. They have also remained disconnected from the people as they never made an effort to build a strong presence at the grassroots. The gain recorded during the tenure of Prince Uche Secondus to connect the party with its large members across the country was destroyed when they sold the soul of the party to a big spender who is now helping to kill it. The elites and their structure easily got swept away by their unquenchable ambition and greed that drove them to go licking the anus of those in power and who had cash to give instead of staying to strengthen their political party.
Also helping to drown opposition, especially with the current regime of Tinubu, is the deliberate weaponization of poverty in such a way that all eyes will be on one source that holds the literary yam and the knife. This greatly hinders the opposition’s ability to mobilize voters.
Perhaps the greatest killer of the opposition is the electoral laws that create room for the biased electoral commissions to manipulate the process in favor of their appointees, the ruling party. The ruling party’s control over electoral machinery and resources has made it difficult for opposition parties to compete fairly.
And conspicuously helping this loophole is a weak and corrupt judiciary that stamps whatever comes in favor of the ruling party.
Given these disturbing pictures, how can the two leading opposition parties, the PDP and the LP, avert being buried as the ruling APC is already digging their grave? How can the two parties escape the grave ahead of the burial date in 2027?
To overcome these challenges, the two parties must rebuild and rebrand. They must cautiously develop a clear vision, strategy, and leadership that inspires trust and confidence among Nigerians. They must deliberately foster unity among and within themselves, encourage collaboration and coalition, and work towards presenting a united front in 2027, enough to overwhelm the ruling APC and their collaborators in INEC, judiciary, and security.
Individuals in the two parties must bring out their funds and invest in grassroots mobilization and empowerment to build a strong support base early enough, not to wait for the election year. They must ignite a push using their legislators and civil society groups for electoral reforms that will ensure free, fair, and credible elections.
Added to these variables, PDP and LP must adapt and evolve to address the country’s complex challenges and provide a viable alternative to the ruling party. The Presidential Candidate of the LP in the 2023 poll, Peter Obi, did very well in this area, and it helped him to win the heart of the electorates through his Obidient Movement and his campaign mantra from Consumption to Production which he empirically demonstrated as the only way to move the nation forward economically.
A lot of concerns are being raised in political circles that APC, under Tinubu’s leadership, is deviously working for a one-party state. This they have denied but their underhand roles in the headaches being faced by the two leading opposition parties, PDP and LP, do not support their denials.
To avert imminent demise, PDP and LP must be pragmatic and know that they need urgently a leadership renewal. This is the time to identify and push for a charismatic leader who can inspire to fly their flag in 2027. If the two parties can work together, which is the only reasonable option for now, they already have a Peter Obi, who indisputably is the most charismatic politician from the South already favored by the zoning arrangement. Luckily, Obi, by his antecedents, is committed to good governance, transparency, and accountability.
Finally, If the opposition can bury their greed and selfishness and try implementing these strategies, they stand tall, regaining power and providing a viable alternative to the ruling party that has unknowingly, by their misrule, aided and abated their inevitable demise. When these dreams come through, it would ultimately be strengthening the country’s democracy. But like the German theoretical physicist, Albert Einstein noted, “It takes a touch of genius and a lot of courage to move in the opposite direction.” God help us.
