It’s over.
Fifty-four years of brutal Assad dynasty rule has come to an end. The streets of Damascus have erupted in celebration, President Assad has fled the country and the capital has fallen.
What comes next is of great concern. Syria is deeply divided, geographically and socially. This is a moment of huge peril.
Once the euphoria cools there will be deep hatred and anger towards former Assad loyalists after decades of murderous rule. Containing that will be difficult.
Who will govern Syria is unknown. Multiple rebel groups control different parts of the country and, we assume, they will all want their slice of power. That is a recipe for further civil war unless this can be managed in an orderly way.
Syria’s prime minister, Mohammed Ghazi al Jalali, has remained in Damascus and offered a peaceful transition. How he is treated will be a good indicator.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the main group that started this rebellion with the capture of Aleppo, was once affiliated with Al Qaeda. It has renounced those links but remain a proscribed terror organisation by the US and others.
Russia and Iran, Assad’s two main state sponsors, abandoned him when his fate seemed inevitable. It’s unlikely they will abandon Syria quite so quickly though. Moscow has key military bases on the Mediterranean coast which opens up a part of the world to them – giving these up would be a huge strategic blow.
To Iran, Syria was a centrepiece in its axis of resistance, the funnel through which weapons were channelled to Hezbollah and vital territory in its arc of influence. But Assad and Hezbollah have now both collapsed, and Iran’s network of Shia influence is in tatters.
It’s a new dawn for Syria, but there are dark clouds on the horizon.
Alistair Bunkall is the Middle East Correspondent of Sky News and can be reached through @AliBunkallSKY
