By Olu Fasan
At the beginning of every year, analysts look back at the past 12 months – reflecting on what worked and what didn’t – and look forward to the next 12 months – prognosticating on what might and might not be. In that tradition, this column began last year with an article titled “2024: How Nigerians must assess Tinubu’s performance” (Vanguard, January 4, 2024). The piece looked back at 2023 and projected into 2024. Similarly, this intervention reflects on 2024 and takes the long view of 2025.
In setting the criteria for assessing Tinubu’s performance in 2024, I appealed, first, to religion and quoted Proverbs 29:2. “When the righteous [good leaders] are in authority, the people rejoice; but when the wicked [bad leaders] rule, the people groan.” Then, I invoked the Jeffersonian credo that “the care of human life and happiness is the only legitimate object of good government”. This newspaper’s motto, “towards a better life for the people”, also aptly captures the primary purpose of every government. Thus, I posited that Tinubu’s performance in 2024 should be judged by the extent to which there were tangible improvements in the lives of ordinary Nigerians, and whether or not the people rejoiced or groaned.
So, what happened? Well, I gave my overall verdict in last week’s column when I said that Tinubu’s promise of renewed hope in his “2024 Renewed Hope Budget” turned out to be an illusion. In 2024, Nigeria’s ruling elite lived in outrageous opulence, using public funds to buy presidential yachts and fleets of SUVs and renovating their official residences with billions of naira, among many extravagances, while poverty reached dizzying heights, with over 64 per cent of Nigerians going to bed hungry, and an epidemic of kidnapping gripped Nigeria. In a country where there is no audit of budget implementation and performance, a mandatory practice in genuine and accountable democracies, several billions, if not trillions, of naira from last year’s N28.77 trillion budget would certainly have been embezzled and misappropriated without trace. Of course, Nigeria is a kleptocracy, as John Campbell and Matthew Page rightly stated in their book, Nigeria: What Everyone Needs to Know.
But my focus here is not the 2024 budget; rather, it is Tinubu’s governing philosophy, which led to his failure in 2024 and looks likely to make 2025 another wasted year. Everyone knows, by now, that Tinubu is a very arrogant and self-regarding ‘leader’, who believes he is a genius and can do whatever he wishes. Part of the reason for Tinubu’s self-confidence is that he has absolutely captured and pocketed the National Assembly and turned it into a supine and pliant legislature, thereby enthroning effective one-party rule.
Indeed, recently, Godswill Akpabio, Senate President, admitted that Tinubu has “muscled” the National Assembly. Akpabio said: “He [Tinubu] conferred on us Grand Commander of the Order of the Niger, GCON; whether he loved it or not he did it. He muscled the two Chambers together.” He said Tinubu did so to co-opt the National Assembly, knowing that the parliament “can turn a woman into a man and a man into a woman.” Of course, in Nigerian politics, everyone has a price, and Tinubu’s brand of politics is to pay the price, whatever it is, to get what he wants.
But at whose expense? If the National Assembly is so much in cahoots with Tinubu and rubberstamps everything that he presents to it, who then will hold him and his government up to scrutiny? Is an unaccountable government good for democracy? How come the parliament that “can turn a woman into a man and a man into a woman” can’t ensure that the Nigerian state works for the Nigerian people and engenders a better life for them? Aided by the National Assembly, Tinubu squandered 2024 shadowboxing on issues like national anthem, state police, local government autonomy and new tax bills without proper consultations and a coherent restructuring vision and without prioritising the needs of ordinary Nigerians. Of course, Tinubu and the National Assembly will trumpet the new monthly minimum wage of N70,000. But consider this: a senator, Sumaila Kawu, said in August that his monthly take-home pay was N21m, and lamented it wasn’t enough! Yet, Tinubu and the National Assembly brag about an inflation-decimated monthly minimum wage of N70,000. Simply put, they worked for themselves, not ordinary Nigerians, in 2024!
Which leads to Tinubu’s other governing philosophy: expansionary fiscal policy. Tinubu believes in large-scale government spending. He calls its “stimulus”. But the stimulus is not a rising tide that lifts all boats; rather, it unjustly enriches public officeholders, politically-connected government contractors and other political entrepreneurs who fleece the Nigerian people. Truth is, Nigeria is not only a kleptocracy, but also a plutocracy, a government of the super-rich and the well-connected. According to Enhancing Financial Innovation and Access, EFInA, a financial-inclusion outfit, 62 per cent of adult Nigerians earn less than N100,000 per month, with an average income of around N31,000. So, into whose pockets does Tinubu’s multi-trillion-naira stimulus go? Surely, not the pockets of ordinary Nigerians: the rising tide doesn’t lift their tiny boats!
Tinubu’s fiscal profligacy also triggers a large deficit, which leads to excessive borrowing and increases Nigeria’s debt burden. During his recent “media chat”, Tinubu said that “borrowing is not a crime.” But is devoting 33 per cent of a country’s budget to debt servicing – as the 2025 budget does with N16.33 trillion for debt-service – not a crime? Of course it is, because that’s money that could help improve people’s lives. Then, there’s the inflationary side of fiscal profligacy. Only the economically illiterate would say that Tinubu’s fiscal recklessness doesn’t contribute to Nigeria’s runaway inflation, now at 34.6 per cent. But who suffers most from inflation? Of course, it is the poor, whose disposable incomes and purchasing powers are completely wiped out, making the so-called minimum wage worthless.
Now, the above picture of Tinubu’s performance in 2024 offers insights into 2025. First, his governing philosophy, underpinned by arrogance of power and detachment from reality, will not change. He will continue to be wise in his own conceit. Second, his fiscal recklessness, as reflected in his proposed N49.74 trillion 2025 budget, will only further unjustly enrich the wealthy and the politically connected, while doing absolutely nothing to engender better lives for ordinary Nigerians. Tinubu said he will reduce inflation to 15 per cent this year. But the only way inflation can drop so dramatically amid fiscal profligacy is if the CBN continues to aggressively hike interest rates, thereby destroying industries and the prospects of reducing unemployment and poverty. He said he will bring the exchange rate down to N1,500 to $1. Yet, it is projected to reach N1,800 this year. Yet again, Tinubu is peddling fantasies!
Thanks to his perverse governing philosophy, Tinubu made life unbearable for ordinary Nigerians in 2024. Sadly, the omens are not good for 2025. My advice? Trust in God!
