Nigeria’s next election circle in 2027 may face disruptions due to worsening poverty and escalating insecurity in the country, a new report by YIAGA Africa has warned.
Presenting the findings in Abuja, the executive director of YIAGA Africa, Samson Itodo, said the economic hardship across the country could lead to increased vote-buying, particularly through the exchange of food for votes.
“This election might be the most monetised in Nigeria’s history. The hunger in the land is making citizens vulnerable to manipulation,” Itodo said.
The report highlighted that rather than driving higher voter participation, the economic crisis could be weaponised by political actors to influence outcomes.
Itodo also pointed to a sharp decline in public confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), which began after the 2023 elections and has continued through recent polls in states like Kogi and Edo.
“Trust in the electoral process has plummeted. Citizens no longer believe in the fairness of the system,” he said.
According to him, another major concern was insecurity across different geopolitical zones, with violence, kidnapping and unrest threatening voter turnout and the safe conduct of polls.
“Insecurity affects candidates, voters and the electoral commission’s ability to operate effectively,” the report notes.
YIAGA Africa also warned of the erosion of political competition, saying Nigeria was gradually drifting towards a one-party state through intimidation, abuse of power and the weakening of opposition parties.
The report flagged artificial intelligence (AI) and the social media as emerging threats, particularly the potential spread of false information through deepfakes or AI-generated content.
“If AI is used to impersonate INEC officials or release fake election results, it could cause serious unrest,” Itodo warned.
In his welcome remarks, the chairman of the House of Representatives Committee on Electoral Matters, Adebayo Balogun, applauded YIAGA Africa for its consistent advocacy and detailed research.
“This report is a call to action. We must strengthen electoral trust to secure the future of our democracy,” Balogun said.
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