By Cheta Nwanze
A clear and alarming picture is emerging of Nigeria’s escalating food inflation and its devastating impact on child malnutrition. The crisis is not an abstract economic problem; a Premium Times report published on 10 August shows that this is a tangible, life-threatening emergency, vividly illustrated in communities like Awe in Nasarawa State. According to the report, the local government’s nutrition coordinator, Salamatu Madaki, has reported a sharp increase in cases of severe acute malnutrition, rising from 64 to 86 between December 2024 and May 2025. This disturbing trend, mirroring a national catastrophe, highlights a country where spiralling food costs push its most vulnerable citizens to the brink.
When viewed globally, Nigeria’s plight is among the most severe outside of war-torn and hyperinflationary countries. This is more than just a matter of economics; it’s a humanitarian emergency that threatens to cast a long shadow over the future of millions of Nigerian children.
A Look at the Numbers
The most recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that Nigeria’s food inflation, while having eased, remains a grave concern. The year-on-year food inflation rate for June stood at 21.97 per cent, a significant drop from the peak of over 40 per cent recorded in May 2024. However, this figure is still exceptionally high, especially when compared to a global average of 4.3 per cent reported in the IMF’s April World Economic Outlook. Nigeria’s rate is still considerably higher than that of its economic peers, such as Ghana’s 17.2 per cent and Kenya’s 3.8 per cent. Even with the moderation, the inflation rate signals an economy under immense pressure.
The SBM Intelligence Jollof Index powerfully captures the tangible impact of this inflation. According to its July report, the national average cost of preparing a single pot of Jollof rice, a staple for countless Nigerian families, has surged by an astonishing 153 per cent since March 2023. The cost has risen from approximately ₦10,864 to over ₦27,527. This dramatic increase means a traditional celebratory meal has become a luxury, consuming a significant portion — up to 40 per cent — of the new minimum monthly wage for low-income households.
This economic hardship has a direct link to the grim reality of child malnutrition. According to the 2025 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan, an estimated 2.55 million children under five are projected to suffer from acute malnutrition, with 1 million of these cases being severe. This places Nigeria’s crisis on par with other severely affected nations. For comparison, UNICEF’s 2025 projections for Afghanistan show 3.5 million children suffering from wasting, while Somalia is projected to have 1.7 million acutely malnourished children. Nigeria is in between!
When we look at stunting, UNICEF reports that 32 per cent of Nigerian children under five are affected — a rate that highlights a failure to meet global nutrition targets. WHO projects that if current trends continue, there will be 127 million stunted children under the age of five globally in 2025, underscoring the severity of Nigeria’s contribution to this global challenge.
What’s Fuelling the Fire?
The crisis is not the result of a single issue but rather a combination of interconnected problems.
In conflict-affected regions, farmer displacement remains a major driver of food scarcity. A July report from UNICEF detailed a deadly attack in Benue State, which displaced over 3,000 residents and destroyed food storage. This is a recent example of the systemic insecurity that continues to disrupt food supply chains and put millions at risk.
Nigeria continues to struggle to meet its humanitarian funding needs. The humanitarian response plan for the North-East requires over $910 million in 2025, with a significant portion allocated to nutrition. Despite a recent $1.08 billion loan from the World Bank in March for various programmes, including nutrition, the funding gap remains critical. A comparison with Yemen’s 2025 Humanitarian Response Plan shows its nutrition cluster is only 3.4 per cent funded, a stark reminder of the global nature of these resource gaps.
The naira’s volatility, debt, and foreign exchange shortages continue to inflate import prices and erode household purchasing power, pushing food inflation higher. While the overall inflation rate has eased, price hikes for staples persist. Recent market surveys in Lagos show that the price of a 50-kilogramme bag of rice has surged, and a single egg now costs five times its 2023 price, illustrating the enduring pressure on household budgets.
Beyond the Statistics: The Human Cost
These alarming figures point to a multifaceted emergency with far-reaching consequences.
The high number of acute malnutrition cases is a symptom of both regional insecurity and systemic underinvestment in food and healthcare systems. Severe wasting in children can lead to lifelong physical and cognitive deficits, threatening to create a “lost generation” with limited prospects for a healthy, productive future.
Soaring food costs constitute a significant threat to urban and rural families, increasing social unrest and deepening poverty. The displacement of farmers and food insecurity is destabilising rural economies, leading to a migration of people into already overstretched urban slums and putting immense pressure on aid systems.
Malnutrition makes millions more vulnerable to infectious diseases, impairs children’s performance at school, and lowers adult productivity. The widespread prevalence of stunting and wasting means that a large portion of the population will not have the opportunity to live healthy, fulfilling lives.
The Path Ahead: A Perilous Future
Nigeria is heading towards a more perilous future without swift and decisive action. The combination of global food price shocks, local insecurity, and a weak currency could push inflation even higher, forcing more families into acute hunger.
The number of malnourished children could easily exceed 2.55 million if funding gaps are not closed, conflict persists, or the displacement of farmers continues. This is not just a statistical prediction; it is already happening in communities like Awe.
The struggle for survival will likely lead to an increase in school dropouts, child labour, and crime. Public health systems, already struggling, will be overwhelmed by a rise in diseases linked to malnutrition.
As one of Africa’s largest economies, even more instability in Nigeria will inevitably affect its neighbours. This could lead to a rise in refugee numbers and a more complex humanitarian response across the continent.
The time for action is now. Nigeria must make addressing this crisis a top priority. This involves significantly increasing funding for nutrition, tackling rural insecurity to allow farmers to return to their land, and stabilising the currency. Furthermore, expanding food assistance and conditional cash transfers to the most vulnerable groups is essential. The exclusion of places like Awe from critical aid programmes must be addressed to ensure that no community is left behind.
Nigeria’s food inflation and malnutrition crisis are warning signs. They are symptoms of deep-seated problems that require immediate and coordinated solutions. The Premium Times article is a stark reminder that for millions of at-risk children in Nigeria, the next steps are a matter of life and death.
Cheta Nwanze is the Lead Partner at SBM Intelligence.
