By Iliyasu Gadu, Ilgad2009@gmail.com
(08035355706 Texts only)
As we have all anticipated, in the morning hours of Saturday February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched coordinated attacks on the Islamic Republic with bombing raids across cities in the country. Tehran, Isfahan, Tabriz and Qom were some of the cities targeted.
The Iranian response was swift. American military bases in Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were on the receiving end of barrages of Iranian missile attacks.
For the Americans, assembling such a massive military force costing hundreds of millions of dollars in daily maintenance for over a month only to turn around and head back home, was never in consideration. The only scenario that could have brought about such measure would be if the Iranians would agree to all the demands of the Americans namely; stopping the nuclear programme, dismantling the ballistic missiles development and stop supporting proxies like Hizbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen. Even at that the Americans would insist on stationing a large contingent of their troops in Iran to monitor compliance and possibly embark on regime change.
The Iranians were never going to accept this and the Americans knew it. So, the diplomatic discussions that the American and Iranian officials were holding back and forth all along amounted to mere posturing.
To the Iranians, the American position amounted to a diktat which would leave and its defense capabilities vulnerable to its chief regional adversary, Israel. The Iranians know that their second and third generation American made F-4 Phantoms (relics of the Old Shah regime) and Russian made MiG 29 air assets are no match to the Israeli Air Force which has in its inventory scores of the most modern fourth and fifth generation cutting edge American made stealth platforms like the F-35 and F-22 Raptor.
Also, there was no way the Iranians would agree to part or even down grade their ballistic missile development programme which they consider as counterweight to the Israeli dominance in the air which played out during the 12-day war against Israel in June last year.
As both sides stuck to their positions on the key issues and with time and patience running out, it was inevitable that war was certain to happen.
The American battle plan aim to knock out much of Iranian military infrastructure at first strike. They did not plan on getting bogged down in a prolonged brutal quagmire in the difficult operating terrain of Iran which will likely result in heavy casualties.
The massive American military build-up comprising air and sea platforms points to a strike plan that hopes to achieve just that. The Americans would need an expeditionary force of up to 200, 000 to invade and hold the Iranian mainland. Not only will the Americans not be able to find such a force, they can be sure that whatever they are able to muster will be slaughtered in the Iranian meat grinder. The Americans are banking that having done the necessary carpet bombing of Iranian military targets, the Iranian resistance would overthrow the theocratic regime and sue for peace bringing a quick end to the war.
Achieving this strategic goal depends largely on the Americans being able to destroy or suppress up to 70 per cent of Iranian launch capability of the thousands of ballistic missiles of different specifications that Iran possesses in the on-going war. As it is now clear with the successful Iranian strikes at American bases in the region and on targets in Israel, the Americans do not have the capacity to achieve the needful on this score.
Another consequential factor pertains to the possible destruction of the entire oil infrastructure of the region. Imagine for a moment, that the massive oil installations in Saudi Arabia and the other gulf states are targeted by barrages of Iranian missiles and that the straits of Hormuz through which the combined oil exports of the gulf states passes is blockaded by the Iranians. Some estimates have it that 20 per cent of global oil is supplied through this waterway which is controlled by Iran.
The American contingency plan regarding the possible blockade of the Hormuz straits by Iran is, to turn to Venezuela and Nigeria both of which are now under the control of American forces, as sources for oil supplies. It figures that all that song and dance about President Maduro in Venezuela and ‘’Christian Genocide’’ in Nigeria was to put American boots on ground in order to control alternative sources of oil in the event of a likely blockade of Hormuz which they had anticipated.
An important factor worthy of note here is that Nigerian and Venezuelan crudes are of differing contents. Venezuelan crude reserves apart from being the largest in the world, its’ grade is of the heavy variety similar to that in the Middle East. The Nigerian crude on the other hand is of the light, low sulfur variety. The strategic thinking by the Americans in this regard is that the Nigerian and Venezuelan crudes are situated at sources where the transportation corridor through the Atlantic and Caribbean takes only 12 days, and firmly controlled by the Americans. Another important factor is that the two different crude grades would serve the heavy and light industries as well as the use by vehicles in America
One likely consequence of this war which has not featured prominently so far but which military planners and analysts have kept at the back of their minds is the possibility of the use of nuclear weapons. This will come from three possible scenarios;
A war of this nature and magnitude which has now drawn parties in the region and with outside powers keenly following and involved in some aspects of it, can easily lead to a miscalculation from one of the protagonists.
Also, another possible red line is one or both of the American air craft carriers is sunk. And although it was reported that Israel had stated before the war that it can absorb up to 700 hits for Iranian missiles, should the war gets to the brink of total obliteration of Israel from relentless Iranian missiles barrages, the likelihood of Israel resorting to the nuclear option cannot be ruled out. Also if the Americans assess that they would incur more casualties in personnel and loss of prime military platforms President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu may likely authorize the use of nuclear weapons.
Similar thing happened during the second world war when the US faced with a possible loss of millions soldiers in the planned invasion of Japanese mainland, opted to drop atomic bombs on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. In the event of such happening in this on-going war likely to other parties and powers like Russia, China, Turkiye, Pakistan, Egypt, North Korea may join in leading possibly to a global conflagration.
Looking at the grim scenario what possible motivations have compelled the Americans and Israelis to embark on this war?
I believe for the Americans this war is both inevitable and necessary for two broad reasons.
This war is a clash of civilizations in which the Americans are compelled to defend the dominant ethos of the Judeo-Christian civilization against the Islamic order represented by Iran.
Secondly, for the Americans this war is driven by the necessity for economic survival. The 1974 petrodollar arrangement with the Saudis has run its full course and the latter is not keen to retain it wholistically. The Americans find this very alarming and if they were to prevail over the Iranians in this war, they would hope the Saudis will change their minds.
Iliyasu Gadu, a former Foreign Service Officer who served at the Nigerian Missions in Germany and the United Kingdom (UK), is also a columnist with Daily Trust
