By Ismail Jamiu Isa
The disruption of political position zoning in Nigeria by President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015 ignited a political crisis that led to the steep decline of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The party not only lost power but has also been struggling to maintain its relevance, even in opposition. Compounding President Jonathan’s misstep, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar deepened this crisis in 2023 by insisting on running for president, despite not being favoured by zoning. He hails from the same Northern region that ousted Jonathan and made the PDP lose power.
Even after leaving the PDP to lead a coalition within the African Democratic Congress (ADC), the zoning issue continues to plague him. It is painfully evident that the same zoning challenges that brought the PDP to its knees are now hindering the ADC’s progress and preventing its take-off, despite the substantial popularity of aspirants like Peter Obi in its fold. Obi significantly aligns well with zoning and resonates with the youth demographic. He had left the PDP in 2023 because Atiku refused to respect zoning, and he is on the verge of leaving the ADC for the same reason.
Recent kangaroo gatherings of some political figures from the Igbo community, under Atiku’s prompting, may have sent a clear message to Obi that this perennial aspirant, who has been in the race since 2003, shows no sign of stepping back. Obi has confided to close associates that he respects Atiku as a mentor and appreciates his choice of him as his running mate in 2019, when zoning favoured him, and he would prefer not to contest against him. This implies that Atiku would either endorse Obi or bid him farewell from the ADC.
Political observers, however, predict the downfall of the ADC without Obi as its flagbearer. Atiku’s previous attempt to sideline Obi in 2023 in favour of Ifeanyi Okowa, the incumbent governor of Delta State, ended in electoral disaster, and the situation may worsen this time. None of those South East politicians who assembled for Atiku recently can stand in the region to talk against Obi.
The PDP, once a formidable force in Nigeria’s political landscape, is teetering on the brink of survival due to the unchecked ambitions of its leaders. As articulated by Bangmbiki Hayariman in Pearls of Eternity, “Nothing is sweeter and more addictive than power; the unfortunate soul possessed by this demon will sacrifice others to obtain it unless they are sacrificed themselves.” Furthermore, James Callis astutely remarked that “anybody who has political ambition has an Achilles’ heel,” highlighting the complexities inherent in the political arena.
Despite witnessing the destructive impact of ambition on the PDP, many members of the African Democratic Coalition (ADC)—many of whom have roots in the PDP—are repeating the same mistakes of the past. In the current political climate, comparing the ADC to the PDP is not only relevant but necessary to understand the dynamics of Nigerian politics. The PDP originated as a coalition of defiant politicians dedicated to ending military rule. Similarly, the ADC is composed of politicians eager to challenge a confused, nepotistic, and divisive regime. However, while the PDP strategically introduced zoning of top positions between the North and South to foster harmony and sustain its power for sixteen years, the ADC’s avoidance of this strategy raises serious concerns, especially as it seems to revolve around Atiku Abubakar’s interests.
Initially, there was substantial excitement surrounding the ADC coalition, fueled by the public’s desire for an alternative to the failed All Progressives Congress (APC). Yet, this enthusiasm is swiftly waning due to growing uncertainty about the coalition’s direction. The fervour following Peter Obi’s official entry into the coalition on December 31, 2025, is dissipating because it increasingly appears that the coalition is tailored exclusively for the former Vice President, despite zoning posing significant challenges for him. Many political analysts familiar with Nigeria’s political landscape in the current political context agree that the simplest path to ensuring Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s re-election in 2027 lies in facilitating a return of political power to the North.
The comparison between the ADC and the PDP reveals crucial differences and similarities that will significantly influence their futures. Both parties operate in the opposition space; however, their challenges and structural foundations indicate that they are on divergent paths. For instance, where the PDP’s strength once lay in its entrenched presence in all 774 local governments, the ADC currently resembles little more than an “association of big names” primarily active in Abuja, lacking a robust grassroots framework outside the massive youth followership of the Obidients. Although recent high-profile defections supporting Peter Obi have sparked some growth, particularly in the Southeast, the ADC is devoid of the historical community support that both the PDP and the Labour Party have traditionally enjoyed in that region.
The PDP’s downfall is often attributed to its abandonment of zoning and its foundational principles of justice, culminating in an identity crisis. Regrettably, the ADC seems intent on ignoring these critical lessons. The widespread acceptance of zoning in the political landscape is vital for parties aiming to secure a lasting foothold in Nigeria’s complex political environment. If only ADC knew how badly Nigerians want APC out of the way.
Ismail wrote from Zaria, Kaduna State
