By Comfort Ero
NATO member state leaders will meet in Ankara on 7-8 July at a time of tremendous upheaval for the alliance. If all goes well, the gathering will demonstrate that, despite the volatility, NATO remains united. If not, the summit will showcase a growing split between the United States and its Western allies.
Donald Trump has long sown doubt about whether the U.S. would actually come to its NATO allies’ defence in a crisis, in effect threatening the cornerstone promise of the founding treaty. His administration has repeatedly pledged to reduce U.S. military deployments in Europe, while sending confusing signals about its withdrawal plans.
It has curtailed U.S. aid to Ukraine, forcing allies, who believe that Russian victory over Ukraine would be disastrous for their own security, to take up a huge amount of slack. Most shocking to Europe, Trump has also threatened to seize Greenland from NATO ally Denmark.
The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has opened new wounds. The Trump administration berated NATO allies for inadequate support for a war they had no part in starting. In reality, the U.S. continued to use NATO allies’ bases and facilities to launch attacks on Iran (though some, like Spain, denied it access). Trump and his team have repeatedly said they would reevaluate the U.S. role in NATO after the Iran war. Allies are torn between trying to curry favour by offering Washington more rhetorical support and standing firm.
They will try to keep summit drama to a minimum. In the preceding days, expect plenty of discussions among officials, including during NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s meeting with Trump, to pre-define outcomes. For European countries and Canada, the main goal of the summit will be to project NATO’s unity and strength: likely reporting on coordinated planning for bigger European roles and progress on spending commitments and activities.
Over the past year and a half, they have scrambled to maintain U.S. support as long as possible while preparing for a future in which it is diminished. That’s a tall order for an alliance predicated on U.S. leadership and an outsized U.S. military role. An extra irritant is that U.S. officials seem reluctant to give up key positions, even as Washington plans to draw down forces and prods its allies to do and spend more.
The U.S.’s NATO allies will also remain preoccupied with identifying new ways to aid Ukraine – and maybe also get involved in negotiations amid speculation that the U.S. wants to embark on new talks. Host Türkiye, which will put on a Defence Industry Forum alongside the summit, is keen to show other NATO allies how much it has to offer them as they lay rearmament plans – and to showcase its bilateral relationship with Washington. But at the top of everyone’s agenda will be averting public disagreements with the U.S. delegation, lest relations with Washington sour even further.
Comfort Ero is President & CEO, International Crisis Group
