By Group Captain Saheeq Garba Shehu (rtd)
Let me state my position clearly.
1️⃣ I do not believe there is a Christian genocide in Nigeria.
Yes. Nigeria has serious security failures — banditry, terrorism, criminality, state weakness — but those failures affect Christians, Muslims, and traditional communities alike. Framing them as a religious extermination project is, in my view, inaccurate and dangerous.
2️⃣ That theory did not emerge organically.
It was deliberately packaged and promoted during the late President Muhammadu Buhari (PMB) era, particularly within the period of the Biden–Democratic administration in the United States. The original target was late PMB. Some Nigerian clerics and conspiracy theorists — some still alive, some now deceased — were central to pushing it, (for emphasis it was even called Government sponsored Christian Genocide) largely to portray the Buhari government internationally as hostile to Christians.
3️⃣ However, the narrative failed to gain traction under the Biden administration. Despite sustained lobbying, it did not become accepted policy thinking within the U.S. Democratic establishment, which viewed Nigeria’s crisis primarily through governance and security lenses, not religious extermination.
4️⃣ The theory was later repackaged and relaunched.
When the PMB administration came to an end, and PBAT emerged, some of its earlier promoters of the “Christian Genocide in Nigeria” found favour with PBAT and quietly changed camps and even dropped their advocacy. But a new group of Nigerian clerics and conspiracy entrepreneurs who have also learned the trick, revived the narrative — this time during the Trump Republican resurgence.
This time, the messaging was carefully tailored for a different audience: 👉 the powerful Evangelical Christian base in America’s Bible Belt — a core pillar of Trump’s political support.
Within that environment, the theory found more emotional resonance and, predictably, fertile ground.
5️⃣ Now, again , a new counter-narrative has emerged — the so-called “Screwdriver Salesman theory.” A New York Times story “The Screwdriver Salesman Behind Trump’s Airstrikes in Nigeria” focuses on Emeka Umeagbalasi, a screwdriver trader in Onitsha who also runs a small NGO, whose data and reports have been cited by some U.S. Republican lawmakers and allegedly influenced U.S. policy actions including airstrikes.
Do I believe the PMB era and later the PBAT era “Christian Genocide in Nigeria” theory ? NO.
Do I believe the new counter theory of Screwdriver Salesman? NO.
What I see is an obscure, poorly reasoned explanation attempting to counter one exaggeration with another.
6️⃣ I reject both narratives.
I do not believe Nigeria is witnessing a Christian genocide.
I also do not believe the screwdriver trader version.
Both are distortions — driven not by evidence, but by politics, emotion, and audience targeting.
Nigeria’s crisis is real.
But it is not theological.
It is institutional.
Our problem is not religion.
It is weak policing, poor intelligence coordination, governance failure, rural criminal economies, and decades of state retreat from ungoverned spaces.
Reducing a complex national security crisis into competing conspiracy theories may generate clicks, likes and shares, or even funding, or foreign sympathy — but it does not save lives.
As Nigerians, we must resist narratives designed to divide us for external consumption.
Truth must matter more than mobilization.
Facts must matter more than fear.
That is the only responsible path forward.
Group Captain Sadeeq Garba Shehu (rtd) is a Security & Defence Analyst/Conflict Security & Development Consult Ltd
