Nigeria risks joining Uganda and Zambia in losing its national assets if it defaults in paying back loans obtained from China which is currently put at $3.48bn, economic and financial experts have warned.
Already, in August 2020, Nigeria’s Minister of Transportation, Chief Rotimi Amaechi, hinted about Nigeria forfeiting its assets to China in the event of loan default when he gleefully announced that in obtaining some loans from China, Nigeria had waived its immunity, meaning that China could take the country to arbitration in the event of a default and take over national assets.
Chief Amechi however added that there would be no need for China to claim any of Nigeria’s national assets as long as it repaid its loans to the Asian giant.
According to the Minister, “we must learn to pay our debts and we are paying, and once you are paying, nobody will come and take any of your assets.”
Already, China has taken over Uganda’s only international airport and other key assets over the East African country’s inability to repay a $207m loan obtained on November 17, 2015 from the Export-Import Bank of China.
The loan has a maturity period of 20 years including a seven-year grace period. According to the deal signed with the Chinese lenders, Uganda will have to surrender its only international airport.
The Uganda Civil Aviation Authority said some provisions of the financing agreement with China exposed the Entebbe International Airport and other Ugandan assets which might be taken over by Chinese lenders upon arbitration in Beijing.
China has reportedly rejected recent pleas by Uganda to renegotiate the toxic clauses of the 2015 loan.
Zambia’s debt to Chinese public and private lenders is $6.6 billion, almost double the amount disclosed by the previous Zambian government, the China Africa Research Initiative (CARI) has estimated from an analysis of loan data.
In 2018, the Zambian government handed over the country’s national electricity company, ZESCO to the Chinese due to the inability of Zambia to meet its loan repayment promises. Before then, China was already in control of the country’s broadcasting company, ZNBC. Next to follow was Zambia’s main airport in the nation’s capital, Lusaka.
Although Nigeria’s Federal Government has been mostly secretive about the terms of the agreement on its China loans, the Debt Management Office (DMO) said in a statement in June, 2020 that “the total borrowings from China of $3.121bn as at March 31, 2020, are concessional loans with interest rates of 2.5 per cent per annum, tenor of 20 years and grace period (moratorium) of seven years.”
Stating that the terms of the loans are in compliant with the provisions of Section 41 (1a) of the Fiscal Responsibility Act, 2007, the DMO stated that the low interest rate reduces the interest cost to the government while the long tenor enables the repayment of the principal sum of the loans over many years.
Eleven projects, ranging from water supply, power generation, railways, airport terminals, communication to agricultural processing are funded by the loans acquired.
The Director General, DMO, Patience Oniha, had in February 2021 said: “So far, let’s be very clear that there has not been any default, whether of local or international debt.”
The earliest of the funding agreements between Nigeria and China was signed in 2010 with an interest rate of 2.5 per cent yearly, a repayment period of about 20 years and a grace period of seven years.
If Nigeria is unable to pay its first debt by 2038, the country may have to lease out any of the Chinese-funded projects in Nigeria to China.
The first loan project was for the Nigerian national public security communication system project with $399.50m agreed on December 20, 2010 and disbursed. However, the project was not only abandoned, its facilities have been vandalized.
The second loan was for the Nigerian railway modernisation project (Wu- Kaduna section) with $500m agreed on December 20, 2010 and disbursed.
While the third loan was for the Abuja light rail project with $500m agreed on November 7, 2012 and disbursed, the fourth loan was targeted at Nigerian ICT infrastructure backbone project with $100m agreed on January 5, 2013 and disbursed.
The fifth loan was meant for the Nigerian four airport terminals’ expansion project (Abuja, Kano, Lagos and Port Harcourt) with $500m agreed on July 10, 2013 but $455.28m was disbursed, which is 91.06 per cent of the agreed amount.
The sixth loan was for the Nigerian Zungeru hydroelectric power project with $984.32m agreed on September 28, 2013 but only $518.24m was disbursed, which is 52.65 per cent of the agreed amount.
The seventh loan was for the Nigerian 40 parboiled rice processing plants project (Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development), with $325.67m agreed on April 26, 2016, but nothing was disbursed.
The eighth loan was for the Nigerian railway modernisation project (Lagos – Ibadan section), with $1.27bn agreed on August 18, 2017 but only $759.84m was disbursed, which is 17.50 per cent of the agreed amount.
The ninth loan was targeted at the rehabilitation and upgrading of Abuja-Keffi-Markurdi road project with $460.82m agreed on August 18, 2017 but only $80.64m was disbursed, which is 59.96 per cent of the amount agreed.
The 10th loan was meant for the Nigeria supply of rolling stocks and depot equipment for the Abuja light rail project with $157m agreed on May 29, 2018, but nothing was disbursed.
Lastly, the 11th loan was for the Nigeria greater Abuja water supply project with $381.09m agreed on May 29, 2018, but nothing was disbursed.
In terms of repayments, Nigeria paid $102.68m to China in the first six month of 2021, while it still owes about $3.48bn
Nigeria also paid a total of $102.68m to the Exim Bank of China in the first half of this year.
Nigeria paid an interest fee of $42.54m, which is 73.76 per cent of the principal fee of $57.67m as debt service to the Exim Bank of China in the first three months of 2021
Alongside commitment charges of $1.98m, Nigeria paid a total of $102.20m.
In the second quarter of 2021, Nigeria paid an interest fee of $306,050, without paying the principal fee, as debt service to the Exim Bank of China in the second three months of 2021
Alongside commitment charges of $170,680, Nigeria paid a total of $476,730 in Q2 2021.
Altogether, Nigeria spent $591.11m in five years on servicing the debts owed to the Exim Bank of China. In spite of this repayment, Nevertheless, Nigeria still owes China $3.48bn as of the end of June 2021.
However, financial analysts hinted about the possibility of Nigeria forfeiting key national assets to China if the country defaulted on its loans, advising the Federal Government to properly review the loan agreements with China to save the country from facing a situation similar to that of Uganda.
Chief Executive Officer of SD&D Capital Management, Idakolo Gbolade, said Nigeria might forfeit certain assets in the event of a loan default, stating: “Yes, it is very possible. If you remember about a year ago, there was serious concern in the National Assembly on the loans given by the Chinese Exim Bank to us. And I am sure the loan clause also includes forfeiture of national assets.”
The expert, however, expressed confidence that Nigeria was capable of paying back its debt.
An economist and professor of Economics and Public Policy at the University of Uyo, Akpan Ekpo, said the development in Uganda was worrisome and exemplified some of the dangers of borrowing from external sources.
He, therefore, advised the government to ensure that loan agreements with China were properly appraised.
Ekpo said, “It is an issue of concern; that is why in any loan agreement with China, we have to read in between the lines. We have to make sure we really understand their agreements.
“We should make sure that Nigerians are involved in the loan negotiation process. Experts should be carried along so that they can properly understand both the agreement in English and in Chinese.
“If the loans have clauses that may cost us our assets or even our sovereignty – as the debate was earlier in the year – that would be disastrous.
“So they should take experts with them when they go to negotiate the loans they collect from China, not just people from foreign affairs.”
A professor of Economics at the Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ogun State, Sheriffdeen Tella, equally expressed a similar view, stressing that all loan agreements between Nigeria and external sources should be properly studied by experts.
He said, “It could happen to any African country because they are all thinking of borrowing. But I think that since people have kept the conversation alive now, the government will be very careful with loans collected from China.
“There is, however, the need for an assessment of government external debt from different sources now. We have to start looking at it and there is a need to study the documents that contain the agreements of some of these loans to prevent a similar occurrence.
“We need to start asking ‘what are the contents or the conditions of the loans?’ There is also a need for the government to create a means for offsetting such debts.”
The Managing Director of Cowry Asset Management Limited, Johnson Chukwu, said the country should not have a problem paying back the loan if the economy thrived sufficiently.
He said, “An interest of 2.5 per cent is not high. The key challenge is that did we invest the money in productive assets, and are we getting the value for the money? Was the project cost-optimal?
“It is important to note that investment in infrastructure should lead to an expansion in the country’s ability to generate revenue. If the economy thrives, paying back the loan should not be a problem.
“However, if certain reasonable conditions are not met, it may have a catalytic effect on the economy with the country finding it difficult to pay back the loan.”
Copyright The PUNCH
