Unity to be real must stand the severest strain without breaking
Anyone who has kept abreast of the goings-on in Nigeria in the last 61 years, will most likely answer this week’s headline’s question with a resounding No.
In 1860, during a presidential debate, Abraham Lincoln told the Congress he did not expect the divided house of America’s slaves and freemen to fall, but “I do expect it will cease to be divided.” Here is a lesson for Nigeria in that famous “divided house” speech: The only way for Southern Nigeria to realise its much-vaunted dream of noiselessly producing a President in 2023 is to cease to be divided. Simpliciter.
Yesterday’s statesmen who decided that top party and government positions be zoned between North and South were utterly unfair to the South. Why were they oblivious of our history as a nation? They knew that the very foundation of Nigeria, even under British rule, was laid on a tripod of the three major ethnic groups that dominate the geo-political zones of the North, East, West.
When the idea of creating the six geo-political areas came up, it was intended to create more convenient administrative demarcations and to play down the festering sore of ethnic divide already ravaging the polity. But the current zoning formula of today’s political players did not factor in the entrenched ethnic divide in the South.
While there exists a monolithic North from inception despite the multiplicity of tribes and religion, there is nothing really like a political South. It was very nourishing for the North to accede to the North/South zoning formula knowing that they will use it to an advantage since a one united South is not easily achievable.
The North knows that the old West will not agree politically with the old East. This obvious division in the South, fueled by the two main groups, Ndigbo and the Yoruba, are indeed at the root of the nation’s political challenges. The North has continued to exploit this disadvantage to its gain and rather than help it has been manuring the division. Do you blame those who take advantage of politics?
Pundits are unanimous that Nigeria will experience stability the moment there is solidarity in the South to equal or challenge Northern dominance. But when is that possible given the glaring obstacles to southern unity. What that means is that political stability in Nigeria is a phantasm if the country is to remain in this uneven, scrappy, and inconvenient structure.
While the North can conveniently domicile its Presidency in any of the three zones without much friction and bickering, the same is not possible in the South. The evident dominance of the Hausa-Fulani in the North helped by the use of Islam as a unifying force makes political homogeneity easy.
The same cannot be said of the South, which has Christianity as one dominant religion but is unable to use it to harness oneness because of the fierce ethnic rivalry there.
It is, perhaps, against this backdrop that the ruling APC and the main opposition PDP are in a cat-and-mouse game ahead of 2023. It’s also for this reason that the July Lagos declaration by Southern Governors Forum that the President in 2023 must come from the geopolitical South generated all the hype even though it didn’t seem feasible and realistic.
However, the declaration still jolted some Northern operatives even though they knew it was only on paper as the people were too vertically divided to concretize such a dream. The fact that a southern unity was being contemplated was enough to send jitters to the spines of northern gladiators. But even the southern governors who made the declaration did not believe themselves as most of them are secretly haggling for the Vice President slot, especially in PDP.
The year 2023 provides a bounteous opportunity for the political South to unwaveringly and resolutely come into existence and send a powerful signal to the North. How can they do that? Simply, by approaching issues on the ground with justice and equity in mind?
If the Presidency is coming to the South and the two main ethnic groups in the region, Igbo and Yoruba, are not one united body the dream may never be realised. If, for instance, the two main party leaders, APC and PDP in the spirit of their July declaration for a Southern President in 2023 can go further to say in the interest of peace, justice, and fairness, let the region in the South that has not had a go at it be given the opportunity, a lot of mileage will be covered in realising the aspiration.
If that happens a strong signal will be sent out to the North that a match-mate is bracing for the fight. But will that happen? Your guess is as good as mine.
The three main ethnic nationality groups in the South, Afenifere for the West, PANDEF for the South-South and Ohanaeze Ndigbo for the East, have been at the forefront of trying to create a harmonious geo-political South through their judicious demand for the restructuring of the country. But their aspiration is not enjoying the full backing of the region’s political gladiators who put the people’s wishes into action.
Putting reason into action, the Afenifere, the umbrella body of the Yoruba, has said repeatedly that the West is more interested in restructuring than in the presidency. The highly respected Afenifere leader Pa Ayo Adebanjo, has underscored this position umpteen times, anchoring his stand on the Yoruba belief in justice and equity as the only basis to achieve peaceful and harmonious co-existence. His counterpart in the South-South region, the PANDEF leader, the irrepressible Elder Edwin Clark, has remained unmistaken that the next President should be an Igbo from the South-East for equity and justice.
The position of the duo is based on the value of sharing based on equity and justice as the two zones have produced a President in this dispensation, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo from 1999 to 2007 and Goodluck Jonathan from 2010 to 2015. The third zone in the region, the South-East is yet to take it’s turn.
To put this laudable intention through would need the politicians in the two zones to activate it but this is not forthcoming.
Ahead of 2023, the Lagos State strong man Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, has his two eyes all right but they are focused on only one thing and that is his ambition to be President in 2023. For him, it’s either him or nobody, so preaching justice and fairness can only make sense if you narrow down to his ambition.
As far as APC is concerned, the South-East is not in the equation in the Presidency discussion, the same also for PDP, South-West is not in the equation. The North now stands in watch to cash in on this state of affairs.
As it stands now in this country, the only realistic way the South can produce a President in this country electorally is if the flag bearers of the leading parties are all from the South and the North will ensure it does not happen. When Chief Olusegun Obasanjo emerged in 1999 the two main candidates came from the South-West. The other time was Goodluck Jonathan who entered through the accident of President Umaru Yar’Adua and subsequently he could not sustain it.
So long as the people of the South are not ready to embrace justice and fairness even as they are demanding it from others, so long will they continue to play second fiddle, the only value available for politically disoriented people.
If the North succeeds in the game of one of the two major political parties picking their ticket from the region, the Southern President will remain a pipe dream. If that happens, the blame should go to the Southern political operatives for being obstinate on the issue of justice and fairness, the only option that will guarantee a united South.
If my forethought is right, this is where we are headed in 2023. If APC decides to come to the South to avert a breakup, PDP will head to the North to grab power first before implementing zoning. In such circumstances, the South will lose again for refusing to make sacrifices for the region’s unity. Nobody or group expects to harvest gain when separated in interest and divided in purpose because victory abounds where sacrifices are made for unity. A house divided against itself is a long fact that will not stand. Even the biblical Jesus responded to the accusation from the Scribes that he was casting out demons by the power of Beelzebub, the Prince of demons. So, Southern leaders, the ball is right there in your court, kick it in the direction you wish best for your people but blame yourself for any wrong kick.
God help us.
