“When authority is total, so too is the madness of the man who declares it, and the potential for abuse of power.” – Rick Wilson
From whichever angle you stand to watch the ongoing impasse in Rivers State that has resulted in a state of emergency and unilateral removal of Governor Similaya Fubara and other elected people from office, it’s President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s text running his 2027 template.
For those who know President Bola Tinubu well, he is not the type who starts scampering for umbrellas or raincoats when the rain is already falling. He prepares himself well ahead of anything he wants to do politically and is hardly taken unawares or found off guard.
During the 2023 electioneering, he finished his work ahead of the poll and was enjoying himself, certain that he was going to be President. Naively, his opponents took him for granted, especially as he was feigning health challenges, bluffing all public debates and media interviews, knowing he was sure the job was already done and he could arrogantly and comfortably ignore anybody using his balablu rhetorics.
Then, as if giving a hint to his opponents after his shabby London Chattam House appearance in 2022 where he could not answer any question, he took his team to a classy restaurant to do a pre-victory celebration. He then foretold what was going to happen, saying that political power is never served al carte but is to be grabbed and ran with.
Even now, the opposition is yet to come to terms with that message. They did a video of their dance and this prophetic pronouncement at the London restaurant before sumptuous meals and ensured they made it viral for Nigerians to see. All the predictions in that restaurant gathering came to pass and against public and electoral permutations, Tinubu was declared the winner and has been President for 18 months now.
Within the 18 months of his being at the helm of affairs, he has not left anybody in doubt that he is in charge and in control of affairs. In all his actions and inactions, he has left nobody guessing about his politics and his second-term bid.
The signs are there unhidden to even the blind that Tinubu is in power and has been amassing more power to clear the small obstacles to be anticipated on his way.
To win an election in an ideal democracy, you need the people more than any other variables convincing antecedent and a manifesto to win the trust of the people. But not so in Nigeria, to win an election in this clime, you need four things that complement each other – money, security, INEC and the Judiciary – money to buy all buyable on the way, security to protect your devious actions, INEC to deliver what you want and the judiciary to seal the deal and make it look good and legal. In 2023, Tinubu had all four essentials and got the result he wanted.
Ahead of 2027, he still has them even more fundamentally. All sources of public income in Nigeria today, Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, Federal Inland Revenue Service, FIRS, Customs, Finance and Blue Economy, Accountant General of the Federation, etc, are with his kinsmen. All critical security units needed in an election, Army, Police and DSS, are in the hands of his kinsmen; INEC,’s Mahmoud Yakubu, who is still willing to serve Tinubu, is giving way this year for a more trusted hand from his kinsmen or a Wike and Akpabio’s nominee.
The Judiciary is already in the hands of a Lagos Justice who is retiring in 2028 after the job is done. With all these, if Jagaban decides to repeat the London restaurant pre-victory dance with his team ahead of 2027, who should be surprised? All those politicians leaving their parties and going to APC are those surrendering to this reality and anxious to attend to their stomach infrastructural needs.
The noise has been crescendoing from the opposition’s desk since Tuesday’s fiat Presidential announcement declaring a state of Emergency in Rivers State and the unilateral removal of all elected persons, including the embattled State Governor, Similaya Fubara, as if they didn’t see it coming.
When President Tinubu early in the year told media chat that he was doffing his hat for Nyesom Wike, the opposition should have decoded that properly to mean that the man was doing a good hatchet job for which he was hired from the opposition platform, the PDP. Why shouldn’t Wike be honoured? He ensured that the main opposition PDP remained in disarray. If his only request from the President for the dirty job is to remain as Minister and to ensure Rivers belong to him one way or the other, why not?
What a feeble opposition did in Rivers’s case was to provide Tinubu an avenue to test-run some of his weapons for 2027 and size the opponents. He wants to know how much the opposition can bark or bite so that he prepare an antidote ahead of 2027.
But how far can they go even as this incident provides an avenue for Tinubu to text-run his game plan? Also, it has allowed the opposition to show that they can also bark and bite. But how far can they go in the tattered form they are at the moment?
The National Assembly they need to halt this brazen impunity is manned by an uncommon Godswill Akpabio and a loyalty-challenged Speaker, Hon. Tajudeen Abass, all sitting at the mercy of the President, not their members who themselves are obvious compromisers with inordinate corrupt appetite. Rather than think of democracy and Nigeria they will be seeing this as yet another huge opportunity to corruptly enrich themselves.
Not to mention the judiciary, who, at the apex level, already laid the foundation for the situation as it turned out. The Civil Society and Labor force that are utility partners in the democratic struggle have all gone to bed. The media is hamstrung by the economy of the time and can hardly raise any fierce editorial. For social media, everything, including this and deaths, is entertainment. So, what next?
Already, with an ex-military man as the Sole Administrator, the excited operatives are already mobilized for a python dance in Rivers State. The effectiveness of our military is more on this type of assignment. Meanwhile, they are not ashamed that a retired Brigadier General, a former Director General of the NYSC, was taken away like a chicken in his home in Katsina State by some ragtag bandits and kept away for nearly a month now, but they could not recover him even after a ransom was paid.
The mobilization of security and other critical sectors is more directed at enhancing second-term bids for the President than the internal security of the populace. If you want to know how feverish the 2027 preparation is for the President and his team, go around Abuja and see emerging billboards of the President and the wife announcing their 2027 interest.
Already, more than two years to the election, the North-Central All Progressives Congress (APC) Forum has officially declared its full support for President Tinubu’s second-term ambition, citing significant achievements in governance.
According to a statement released after a strategic meeting in Abuja, the Forum, chaired by one Alhaji Saleh Zazzaga, commended Tinubu’s leadership, particularly in the areas of infrastructure development, security, and inclusive appointments.
The group asserted that since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, no administration has delivered as many benefits to the North-Central region as Tinubu’s.
This endorsement comes amidst criticism from the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) and the Arewa Youth Consultative Forum (AYCF), which have expressed dissatisfaction with Tinubu’s policies, citing ongoing socio-economic challenges and suggesting support for Tinubu’s opponents in 2027.
Despite the opposition, the North-Central APC Forum expressed confidence in Tinubu’s ability to revamp the economy, pointing to recent improvements as evidence of his policies’ success.
The Forum called on Nigerians to remain patient and supportive, stressing that Tinubu’s ongoing reforms require time to deliver full benefits.
“President Tinubu deserves a second term to consolidate and expand these gains. After careful consideration, the North-Central APC Forum has given him a pass mark in key areas.
The Forum concluded by urging all Nigerians to rally behind the President, emphasizing that collective support is crucial for deepening the impact of his reform policies and achieving sustainable national progress.
As provocative as that statement might be to you and as you may even call the group hired, how many people are not hirable in Nigeria today? But a strategic opposition must not overlook Tinubu’s strategic appointments in the North Central, Chief of Defence, Staff, Secretary to Government of the Federation (SGF), and even the vocal Catholic cleric Bishop Hassan Kukah brought on board etc., are made strategically with 2027 in mind.
The obvious brutal bias intervention of Tinubu in Rivers State is also keeping 2027 in focus. Since 1999 when this contemporary political journey began in the country, Rivers State has been a notorious cornerstone to every President. If Tinubu as a politician and incumbent President knows this, why should he watch his opponents take it? If it takes illegal action to take political control of Rivers ahead of 2027, why not if he is unstoppable? The cry should be for the underdog, not the mighty.
If River’s people have anybody to blame, it should be their inordinately ambitious leaders, from Peter Odili to Rotimi Amaechi and Nyesom Wike, who repeatedly exposed River’s wealth for vandalization. Only a fool In Nigeria should, after watching Tinubu’s political trajectory, draw a sharp, bright line between his actions in government and his interests for 2027. Sorry, for anybody on the way who is not prepared for the worst.
But finally, when all is said and done in political permutations, the God factor remains the ultimate and sacrosanct, although when and how it would come remains a mystery. If the opposition sincerely wants divine intervention it must embrace justice within its fold because God doesn’t operate in an unjust society and a journey to equity requires clean hands. God help us.
