By Iliyasu Gadu, Ilgad2009@gmail.com
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In the waning days of the military regime of General Sani Abacha, as the country was agog with the issue of whether the General was going to elongate his tenure by transmuting from military to civilian dictatorship, out of the glare of public notice a quiet but tense stand-off was going on at the Aso Presidential Villa, the seat of power.
As several groups and individuals (many of them obviously sponsored by the military government) were making their loud pitches in favour of General Abacha removing his military uniform and donning his civilian apparel to continue his rule of Nigeria, a select team of people were daily pondering over how Abacha could navigate through the challenges posed by the enormous task.
The team was monitoring the five political parties (five leprous fingers of a leprous hand, apologies to late Uncle Bola Ige) and getting and analysing reports from agents planted by the government in the parties. In addition to that, certain highly placed persons in the military, government, civil societies and business circles were under surveillance to determine their acceptance of the idea or not.
Obviously, the team and the government knew that despite the outward showing of support for the idea by some people, in reality many were not comfortable. And the discomfort stemmed from two principal reasons; one the idea of General Abacha resigning from the military to civilian as a mandatory condition to actualise his ambition. Many people in the military and the political power circle knew that once General Abacha attempted to remove his military uniform by military protocol he was out of the command structure and no uniformed person could obey his command. Indeed in that situation a mere corporal could arrest him under any pretext. Secondly if General Abacha was able to scale this formidable challenge, there was still the issue of how he could get all the five political parties to adopt him as their sole candidate without allowing another candidate from a different political party to compete against him.
The team which was set to work on these challenges distinctly knew that in the first scenario General Abacha could easily be arrested and overthrown. In the second scenario, he could be lured into a political trap wherein the politicians could pretend to be going along with him while sponsoring and supporting a political party with one of them leading that party to defeat General Abacha at the polls.
The team and government of General Abacha were still working to square the circle on this issue when the general was called to meet his maker which put the kibosh on the idea.
As the polity and the Nigerian public space is now trending with the issue of whether Nigeria is going to end up with a one-party state what with the spate of defections and political manoeuvring especially by the ruling All Peoples’ Congress (APC), there is an unmistakeable sense of de javu once again.
Abdullahi Ganduje the Chairman of the APC when asked whether the party was intent on foisting a one-party state in the country, his not so reassuring answer was it should not perturb Nigerians as countries like China practice such a political structure.
In our political trajectory almost all the governments in the past whether military or civilian have had in one way or the other attempted such a caper in varying degrees. But invariably despite their best efforts they have always met with ‘’banana peels’’ that make such attempts bite the dust. Sometimes these ‘’Banana peels’’ are clearly visible ahead; sometimes though the ‘’Banana peels’’ appear when it is too late to make amends.
Like previous government that embarked on this path, the Tinubu administration may be feeling smug on its chances of pulling a one-party caper on Nigeria such that it feels there are no obstacles on its way.
But in reality there are six clearly visible obstacles which the administration created out of its own inevitable contradictions and which may turn out to be its albatross in the 2027 elections.
The Rivers political imbroglio
This is a political Catch-22 situation for the administration. The Tinubu administration has seemingly thrown its lot with Nyesom Wike, the immediate past Governor of Rivers State who is now the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). The idea is to strengthen Wike in order to control the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP). It is also to control through him the rich resources of the State as well as deliver the votes necessary to win the State in 2027.
But realising that putting all its eggs in the Wike basket can be potentially dangerous, the Tinubu administration is also leaving the door open to a rapprochement with Wike’s estranged protégé Governor of Rivers State Sim Fubara who though now in Limbo is not totally out of the game.
The matter with VP Shettima
In the Tinubu Presidency’s Vice President Kashim Shettima, although capable and competent is nevertheless considered a political lightweight. In the context of 2027 elections in which the North is seen as potential game changer with its high votes haul, The Presidency is looking at other options than the VP who are expected to bring in more votes.
But removing Shettima under any circumstances is a politically risky prospect. The blowback from such a move could result in an implosion in the party severely affecting its fortunes in 2027
The Kano two Emirs dilemma
The Chairman of the APC Abdullahi Ganduje is from Kano. He was the immediate past Governor of the State. But despite his best efforts, his party was trounced by the New Nigeria Political Party (NNPP) which is led by his political nemesis, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso. But Kano has the largest vote haul in the country and the APC is salivating on it. Many believe with justification that the appointment and support given for the alternative Emir to the one appointed by the Kano State government is a rear guard action by the APC federal government to establish a beach head in the State in order to slug it out with the NNPP for the Kano votes. But this will certainly result in serious crises in 2027 elections.
Defections could lead to implosions in the party
The APC is encouraging opposition political parties to defect to its fold and bringing with them the entire party structures. The party is rolling out the red carpet for their benefit. But what will happen to those that laboured and built the party against the spirited opposition of the persons who are now opportunistically reaping where they did not sow. This scenario is clearly a setting for chaos especially during party primaries and a potential for disruptions.
The unbearably harsh economic situation in the country
Across the country, the harsh economic situation is blowing mercilessly sparing no one except the few well connected who constitute a minuscule one per cent of the populace. Many are led to believe that the 2027 election will in many ways be between the government at various levels and the people. Such situation could bring about unpredictable outcomes across the country before and during the elections.
What to do with the opposition political figures
The opposition is composed of several personalities who in themselves are no slouches by any stretch of the imagination. The APC would not only need to crowd them out of their political parties as it is now doing, it must find a way to bind and gag them. A very impossible undertaking as they can be more dangerous if driven underground. Imagine denying Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, El Rufai, Kwankwaso etc the political space to operate in this country. The Tinubu administration will be better off swallowing a bee.
There are other ‘’Banana peels’’ which may come in the coming months. But as the APC contemplates implementing a one-party agenda, the party would do well to learn the lessons of similar attempts by previous governments in this country and how they ended up.
Iliyasu Gadu, a former Foreign Service Officer who served at the Nigerian Missions in Germany and the United Kingdom (UK), is a columnist with Daily Trust
