The capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and the deadly nationwide protests in Iran are separate events unfolding on different continents. However, political unrest simultaneously battering the two oil-rich nations could converge to become a defining moment with far-reaching consequences for global geopolitics and trade.
Following Maduro’s extradition to New York to face criminal charges, including narco-terrorism, U.S. President Donald Trump made clear that Washington intends to take control of Venezuela’s oil industry. On Friday, he said the United States would invest at least $100 billion to rebuild the country’s battered energy sector.
“The U.S. said narco-terrorism was the primary reason behind its operation to arrest Maduro. But it is fair to say that the real motive stems from Washington’s plan to control Venezuela’s oil industry,” said Choo Jae-woo, a professor at Kyung Hee University.
Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, estimated at 303 billion barrels, followed by Saudi Arabia with 267 billion and Iran with 209 billion. In the wake of the U.S. operation to capture Maduro, the question of who will control Venezuela’s oil industry has emerged as a key issue, with the potential to rattle not only the geopolitical landscape but also global trade.
Whether the United States will pursue similar military action against Iran, another oil-rich nation, remains uncertain.
Iran’s bloody crackdown on protests has led to a soaring death toll. Despite widespread bloodshed and a communications blackout imposed by the government, the Iranian public continues to resist the regime. Time will tell whether the authorities or the protesters — who initially took to the streets over economic grievances — will gain the upper hand.
Choo said the likelihood of U.S. intervention in Iran appears slim, citing Washington’s past responses to similar uprisings elsewhere.
“The U.S. has not intervened in uprisings driven by economic grievances aimed at overthrowing incumbent regimes,” he said. “There have been anti-government protests in countries across Africa and the Middle East, yet the U.S. has refrained from intervening. We will have to see how Washington reacts to Iran this time.”
Citing an unnamed source, Trump said he had received information indicating that Iran had halted the killing of protesters and suspended planned executions. His remarks were interpreted as a signal that the U.S. was backing away from military action against Iran.
Several Middle Eastern countries have reportedly urged Trump not to launch a military strike on Iran. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked him to postpone any attack, days after Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Egypt conveyed similar requests, warning of the risk of a wider regional conflict.
Shin Jae-hyun, an Iran expert who served as special envoy for natural resources during the conservative Lee Myung-bak administration (2008–2013), said Iran would be better off if the current uprising leads to regime change.
“A regime change is inevitable,” he said, stressing that key government officials and those who ordered security forces to fire on protesters should be held accountable.
According to Shin, the most realistic and favorable scenario would involve Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior officials stepping down, allowing President Masoud Pezeshkian to form a transitional interim government with the goal of establishing a democratic system within a year or so. He added that the U.S. and other Western nations should support Iran’s efforts to rebuild the country.
A banner on the front end of a bus features images of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and China’s Xi Jinping with a message that translates to, “An example for the world,” during a government-organized rally opposing U.S. intervention, in Caracas, Venezuela, Dec. 13, 2025. AP-Yonhap
Political instability in Iran and Venezuela is poised to deal a blow to China, both politically and economically. The two countries have been among Beijing’s closest partners, and their simultaneous upheavals — albeit driven by different causes — underscore China’s limited ability to influence events even among friendly regimes. This impotence risks undermining China’s image as a rising global leader.
Beyond the political setback, China also stands to suffer significant economic losses.
Should Iran replace its Islamic theocracy with a democratic government, as protesters are demanding, China would face serious repercussions, largely because of its long-standing practice of purchasing “sanctioned oil.”
China is the world’s largest oil importer, and its economy depends heavily on foreign energy supplies. In 2024, China imported an average of 11.1 million barrels per day of crude oil. Its top five suppliers were Russia (20 percent), Saudi Arabia (14 percent), Malaysia (13 percent), Iraq (11 percent) and Oman (7 percent). Together, these countries accounted for roughly two-thirds of China’s total crude imports.
However, this supplier list contains a notable anomaly. Malaysia emerged as China’s third-largest oil supplier in 2024, providing an officially reported 1.4 million barrels per day — far exceeding the Southeast Asian nation’s actual production capacity of about 565,000 barrels per day.
According to Erica Downs, a senior researcher at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs, much of the oil labeled as Malaysian is in fact imported from Iran and Venezuela.
“The emergence of Malaysia as China’s third-largest oil supplier last year almost certainly reflects oil imports from Iran and Venezuela that are rebranded as Malaysian to evade U.S. sanctions,” Downs said at a U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission hearing on April 30 last year.
She explained that crude from Iran and Venezuela is relabeled through ship-to-ship transfers in waters off Malaysia, allowing it to enter China. Such sanctioned oil is typically sold below market prices at a discount of $5 to $10 per barrel.
As political unrest in Iran and Venezuela deepens and its aftermath unfolds, China may be forced to restructure its oil import portfolio. If Beijing can no longer rely on discounted crude oil from the two countries, it will face heightened risks to its energy security.
@Korea Times
