By Karen Ibrahim
Democratic governance is fundamentally a two-way street, requiring both a focused ruling party and a disciplined opposition to thrive. It relies as much on the effectiveness of opposition parties as it does on the performance of the administration in power. When democracy functions effectively, the citizens are presented with alternative choices, competing ideas, and constructive policy debates. While the incumbent administration in power is constitutionally mandated to execute the manifesto on which it was elected, opposition parties carry an equally vital responsibility of scrutinizing government actions, offering policy alternatives, and positioning themselves as a credible option to the electorate. This dynamic ensures that citizens are never short of meaningful political choices and the government in power doesn’t become arrogant.
Unfortunately, the political realities ahead of the 2027 Sokoto State gubernatorial election reveals a deeply uneven environment. Rather than a competitive arena, the state’s political space is defined by a visible imbalance. On one hand is the Governor Ahmed Aliyu administration supported by a unified party structure, that’s also delivering several ongoing developmental projects. On the other is an opposition burdened by internal paralysis. The inability of the major opposition parties—specifically the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the African Democratic Congress (ADC)—to effectively hold the Aliyu administration accountable points to a broader weakness: an excessive focus on winning elections,but lacks the capacity required for governance. Since the 2023 polls, internal divisions have prevented these parties from offering any oversight, leaving Governor Ahmed Aliyu to serve as its own opposition.
In recent months, public discussion across Sokoto State has increasingly focused on the irreconcilable crises affecting these opposition elements, creating a growing perception that they are tragically unprepared for the 2027 elections. They already faced an uphill battle because of political realignments in the state. After prolonged hesitation, the immediate past governor, Senator Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, resigned from the PDP and moved to the ADC. Aware of the electoral challenge posed by the political structure Governor Aliyu and of Senator Aliyu Wamakko, Tambuwal chose not to seek for another term in the Senate. The persistence of these crises further confirms his declining political influence.
Much of this paralysis stems from an unprecedented wave of legal disputes over internal party nominations, leaving the electoral future of the parties uncertain. Within both the PDP and ADC, factional struggles have generated lawsuits challenging the validity of recently concluded congresses. These legal conflicts mirror earlier primary election disputes where courts were eventually required to determine authentic candidates. The ADC in particular has faced instability arising from conflicting judicial outcomes, ranging from a Federal High Court order directing the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to deregister the party alongside others, to a Court of Appeal ruling staying the execution of that judgment amid the continuing leadership and primaries disputes.
As a result of these legal battles, both the PDP and ADC face the risk of failing to field valid candidates for the election in the Sokoto State. While Nigeria’s electoral system provides safeguards and INEC has established timelines, the opportunity and time to resolve the conflict continues to narrow. Even if these parties overcome their legal hurdles before the regulatory deadlines, the prolonged disputes have already done an inculpable damage to them and squandered their resources,such that they can’t effectively compete.
To remain electorally viable and have the confidence of the people, political parties must maintain effective leadership structures, respect internal democratic processes, and commit to collective decision-making. As the crises within the PDP and ADC have demonstrated, when these problems —alongside adherence to their party constitutions—are weakened, healthy competition can quickly deteriorate into factional conflict. A party’s strength ultimately depends on the willingness of competing interests to compromise and accept democratic outcomes. Political parties naturally contain differing opinions, where diverse interests intersect, but they are expected to manage these differences. When disagreements become prolonged, they actually confirm and reinforce instability.
These tensions expose the deeper weakness of these parties which distract them from their primary responsibilities of presenting alternative policies and engaging citizens on major governance issues. Political parties that are unable to effectively manage their own internal affairs may struggle with the more demanding responsibility of governing a state of nearly six million people. This challenge, combined with the disastrous eight(8) years legacy of the Aminu Tambuwal’s administration, has further weakened the opposition’s credibility. How can these parties expect to win when their energy is devoted to internal battles rather than grassroots mobilization, and strategic planning? The disputes have generated uncertainty among supporters and voters, consuming political capital that may prove difficult to recover. By remaining trapped in prolonged litigation, the opposition appears to have surrendered the political momentum,just as it had abandoned its role as an effective watchdog.
For Governor Aliyu, however, his greatest political advantage does not arise solely from the difficulties facing his opponents, but from the sterling performance of his administration. From the beginning, the governor recognized that delivering campaign promises, effective governance, and visible improvements in the lives of the people provide the strongest basis for public support. While the opposition’s disputes have effectively sidelined them, Governor Aliyu has continued implementing policies and projects without the burden of internal party conflict. This stability is reinforced by the cohesion of the ruling APC in the state, anchored on the combined alliance of the governor and Senator Aliyu Wamakko. That alignment has provided the administration with the stability necessary to remain focused on governance.
The argument for Governor Aliyu’s reelection is rooted in infrastructure development and fiscal investments. Since assuming office, the governor has anchored his administration around his 9-Point Smart Agenda, a framework designed to translate policy into visible progress. Supporters argue that the scale of construction projects across the state offers direct evidence of governance that citizens can see and experience. In politics, infrastructure often serves as one of the most visible measures through which voters assess performance. Recent fiscal allocations further demonstrate the scale of the governor’s development effort.
Security is another area where Governor Aliyu’s leadership has continued to attract public support. While parts of eastern Sokoto, including Sabon Birni and Isa, have been faced with serious banditry challenges, the state government has devoted substantial resources to addressing them. The administration has procured over 180 Buffalo patrol vehicles, thousands of motorcycles, and other tactical equipment for security personnel. These investments, alongside support for local vigilante groups, are increasingly producing results. Supported by coordinated military operations and security efforts, criminal elements operating in these communities continue to face pressure. As citizens witness efforts to restore safety to vulnerable communities and farmlands, many are appreciative of the administration’s security agenda.
Despite these advantages, Governor Aliyu has continued governing without signs of complacency. While maintaining political momentum, his administration remains focused on delivering projects across the state. In the last few weeks, dignitaries including Governor Babagana Zulum of Borno State, former Governor Orji Uzor Kalu, the German Ambassador, and other prominent Nigerians have visited the state to commission completed projects and to launch new initiatives. These include housing estates, healthcare clinics, and vocational training centers aimed at rehabilitation and economic empowerment for internally displaced persons. Recognizing the economic pressures facing his people, the governor has also prioritized welfare interventions and policies intended to cushion vulnerable populations against hardship.
Admittedly, elections remain unpredictable, and no political outcome can ever be guaranteed. However, a close assessment of the political environment ahead of the 2027 Sokoto State election suggests that Governor Aliyu has built a strong foundation consisting of visible public projects and an organized party structure. The race currently appears to favor him, leaving the opposition with a difficult challenge.
Ultimately, democracy functions best when major political parties remain organized, disciplined, and policy-driven. Strong competition encourages innovation, strengthens institutions, promotes accountability, and gives voters meaningful choices based on competing ideas. Citizens benefit most when political campaigns focus on development programmes, economic policies, education, healthcare, security, and practical solutions to everyday challenges.
Therefore, if Governor Ahmed Aliyu emerges victorious on February 6, 2027, it should not come as a surprise. As a democrat, Governor Aliyu would likely have welcomed a competitive contest; unfortunately, the opposition’s internal disarray has weakened that possibility. Going forward, one can only hope that the opposition reorganizes itself and fulfills its democratic responsibility of providing a credible alternative. The future of democracy in Sokoto State depends not only on the performance of the current administration but also on the ability of the opposition to organize, engage the electorate, and contribute meaningfully to the political process.
