“If I support Atiku for anything God will not forgive me. If I do not know, yes but once I know, Atiku can never enjoy my support” – Olusegun Obasanjo
Has anything really changed since the former President Olusegun Obasanjo made the above weighty vow? Yes, there have been apologies and forgiveness along the way but not fundamental enough to make the Former President raise the flag even today for his former second in command to occupy the exalted number one seat in the land. The political ambition of the former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, is legendary, but its realisation looks herculean due to an error in managing desires that can be likened to a mistake in changing the baton in a relay race or missing the track in athletics.
In a relay race, an error in the change of baton changes the whole equation, the baton carries the hopes of three other people. This pressure often leads to “safe” passes that lose time, or aggressive passes that result in a dropped baton—the ultimate heartbreak in track and field.
Whether it’s the surgical precision of a short sprint or the gruelling endurance of the long relay, these events prove that in a sport as in politics defined by individual excellence, the greatest thrill often comes from collaboration. You cannot miss a track in athletics and expect to get to the finishing line as you originally desired. This appears to be the predicament of Waziri Adamawa, the former Vice President who will be 80 years old in November this year and just hinted that he is embarking on a seventh Presidential contest, a torturous and yet elusive journey he started in 1993 at age 47 years in five different political parties -1993 (SDP), 2007 (AC), 2011 (PDP), 2015 (APC), 2019 (PDP), 2023 (PDP) and heading to ADC in 2027.
In all six previous efforts and even this seventh round, yours sincerely was active as a journalist and record keeper well-equipped to tell the story. As a political reporter for over three decades and another decade in the corridors of political parties in this country, I think I possess the political dough to claim some knowledge of the political trajectory of the former Vice President. Indisputably, Alhaji qualifies to claim to be the longest Presidential seeking politician in Nigeria. Even his enemies authoring a profile will not remove this fact.
It’s perhaps for long-standing appearance as a presidential contestant in Nigeria that he is seen in political parlance as both king and a kingmaker. But it does appear that Atiku’s biggest challenge today is not knowing how to separate the two statuses. In the palaces of strong kings, some influential king makers leave it long to determine who becomes the next king. The sustainability of their influence in the palace is anchored on the fact that they have the best institutional memory and their value is measured in that. Oftentimes they are seen as the reservoir of knowledge about the kingdom and are consulted regularly by everyone including the King.
Their impact in the King’s palace is noticeable and cannot be ignored and this is largely attributed to the fact that he never aspired to the throne. Once you decide to aspire to be on the king’s throne you lose the weight of king-making. This appears to be the junction Waziri Adamawa is at the moment, he is at the point of losing the enviable status that stands him out in the polity by refusing to heed the voice of reason and occupy the fatherly chair being left empty for his occupation.
When the political journey of Nigeria’s current democratic dispensation otherwise known as the fourth republic is written, names like Dr Alex Ekwueme, Ernest Shonekan, M.K. O. Abiola, Babagana Kingibe, Olu Falae, Generals Olusegun Obasanjo, Shehu Musa Yar’Adua, Ibrahim Babangida, Sani Abacha, Abdulsalami Abubakar, will feature prominently along with that of Atiku Abubakar as one of the youngest and most consistent.
It was Atiku’s enviable political records in the early stage of his political trajectory that made Olusegun Obasanjo discard all the politicians from the geopolitical North led by the vibrant, Kano firebrand Abubakar Rimi lined up for him to pick a running mate but he chose to go instead for an already elected Governor, yet to be sworn in Adamawa state, Atiku Abubakar.
Atiku’s political influence soared tremendously and was even underscored by Obasanjo who left everything politics and governance on his desk while he tried to rehabilitate himself from the trauma of long incarceration through his globe-trotting.
That political open cheque from a President to his Vice became Obasanjo’s undoing and the beginning of Atiku’s own problem. Rather than utilise the trust from his boss as an opportunity to build for tomorrow, he saw it as an avenue to hijack power from an apolitical boss forgetting that Obasanjo as a former Head of state and a military general, was tactically sophisticated in the power game and intelligence.
As Atiku assembled some young politicians hoping to teach the General politics, Obasanjo just returned to his military experience and gave him an uppercut that he has not finished nursing the wound even today.
In Igboland, the igede dance is not just for anybody because it can be disastrous if you take the wrong step while dancing it. All the promises that awaited Atiku in his political journey in this country went sour with that wrong step of inordinately mismanaging his ambition.
If Atiku Abubakar had suppressed his ambition and remained subservient to his boss Gen Obasanjo, he would have finished being President of Nigeria since 2015 and Nigeria would have been saved the confusion of All Progressive Congress, APC, as seen in Gen Muhammadu Buhari and Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s catastrophic presidency. Incidentally, Atiku’s error is not only in contributing to the emergence of a Buhari but also in leading five PDP governors to the APC that threw up Buhari in 2015 and dethroned his party the PDP.
Political minds examining the current political turmoil in Nigeria today try to trace it to Atiku Abubakar’s mismanagement of his Presidential ambition in 2003. Ever since then Atiku has remained at the centre of a political turmoil in the land over unrealised ambition.
Even if a reliable marabout had assured him as political rumour mills claim that he will be Nigeria’s President someday without telling him the year and at what age, he should know that many Nigerians thought so when he was picked as Vice President in 1999 by Obasanjo. In the spirit world where the marabouts hold sway, Olusegun Obasanjo’s unforgiving stance over Atiku’s backstabbing may have nullified whatever the marabouts saw or are still seeing in their hermits.
The most honest and reasonable thing left for Atiku at 80 years is to end the race as a statesman and a kingmaker. Trying to run this race at 80 years old at the inauspicious time is not wise. Not even the catastrophic rule of Tinubu will make a Northern President auspicious in 2027. The argument that the zoning figure is in his favour is laughable because it’s a known fact that in 66 years of our nationhood, the North has 46 of it but even at that, the issue is the prevailing circumstances in the country today which is whether an 80-year-old man with Atiku’s record is suitable if truth must be told. Especially coming after the calamitous reign of Buhari and Tinubu in that age bracket and moral status.
Tinubu’s prayer warriors would be wishing for an Atiku in the 2027 Presidential contest knowing the positives it would bring to his disastrous era. With all the experiences in his box Atiku embarking on this race at 80 with an unfavourable zoning arrangement will seriously dent his national status and dwarf his political kingship. Any whispering either by political associates or visionaries telling him Atiku otherwise is not wishing him well in his political endeavours. Given his political status in this country, Atiku should strive not to box himself into the elder statesman dilemma.
As all eyes are focused on him toward 2027, the challenge for Atiku now is whether he can rebrand. Many analysts suggest that by continuing to seek the presidency in 2027 after 1993, he risks being seen as a “bridge to the past” rather than a path to the future.
Atiku’s insistence on running in the face of the minuses therein, particularly the APC’s Northern governors remaining largely loyal to Tinubu, and ensuring that the “Northern vote” was split in four ways (Atiku, Tinubu, Obi and Kwankwaso) rather than consolidating behind a single “Northern choice.” does not leave good name for Atiku and such grows the rumour mills that a personal selfish anti-North deal might be on between him and Tinubu to undermine any Obi-Kwankwaso growing weight. If such is true, it might severely damage all the gains associated with Atiku in Nigerian politics.
It would be an unstoppable desired national unity if in 2027, an Atiku Abubakar, Rabiu Kwankwaso, Aminu Tambuwal, Nasir El-Rufai and others are in one political boat supporting the most popular and desirable choice of the people from the South? Tinubu’s disastrous first term reign should concomitantly facilitate this? God help us.
