- Military analysis supports the fielding of a sixth-generation stealth fighter, Breaking Defense has learned, though a final decision on the Next Generation Air Dominance platform now rests with the Trump administration.
By Michael Marrow and Valerie Insinna on December 20, 2024
A recent internal Air Force analysis supports the development of a manned, next-generation fighter jet, three sources told Breaking Defense — a finding that comes amid a high-profile debate over the future of the multi-billion-dollar Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program.
While the Trump administration will make the final decision of whether to press forward with NGAD, which was paused earlier this year, the review’s results could strengthen the case to keep the program alive and award a contract for the future fighter.
In a statement to Breaking Defense today Friday December 20, 2024, Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall did not dispute that the overall conclusion of the analysis supports a next-gen manned fighter.
“While our analysis does demonstrate that there is value in a next generation crewed platform, the current NGAD design comes at high total and unit costs that may be unaffordable,” Kendall said.
“Our analysis also highlights that there may be significant opportunity costs associated with proceeding with NGAD, given the DAF’s [Department of the Air Force] strategic priorities and the potential level of Air Force and Space Force budgets. There are a number of interdependencies and alternative options at various risk and resourcing levels which the next administration will have to consider before making a decision. All options remain on the table,” he added.
The NGAD program was temporarily suspended as the Air Force weighed whether it could afford an expensive next-generation fighter in light of ongoing budget constraints, the breakneck pace of adversary threats, and technological progress on competing spending priorities, especially a budding effort to field drone wingmen dubbed Collaborative Combat Aircraft. The CCA wingmen are expected to be a critical force multiplier for manned Air Force aircraft and have been described as a key component of the envisioned NGAD family of systems.
Kendall said in public comments Thursday that other concerns also influenced the delay, like how the platform would fit into the service’s Agile Combat Employment — a method of dispersing operations to avoid a crippling attack, relying on a network of bases officials fret may not have adequate defenses. The service is also weighing what elements are needed to support an NGAD fighter, like a next-gen tanker, whose fate is currently in limbo.
Air Force leaders decided to use the fall to review the NGAD concept, calling in help from former officials and researchers to conduct additional analysis. The process was expected to wrap up in time to inform the Air Force’s fiscal 2026 budget request, though the service recently announced it would punt a decision on the platform’s fate to the incoming Trump administration.
Without sharing the results, Kendall said publicly Thursday that the NGAD analysis was “mostly done” with the caveat that the new Trump team “may want some additional analysis when they show up.” He noted that the Air Force is “very close to being ready to proceed if that program continues its current form.”
The Air Force’s NGAD hesitancy sent shockwaves through the defense industry, which after a decade of development was gearing up for a decision on the jet originally expected this year. Boeing and Lockheed Martin are believed to be the prime contractors vying for the jet’s lucrative contract, which would likely be the world’s first sixth-gen fighter.
“If I had to categorize it, modernization costs are something that we still need,” Lt. Gen. David Harris told Breaking Defense. “And there’s even some readiness pieces in here that allow me to have the right supply and support. All of that still needs to come together.”
A next-gen fighter effort also carries profound implications for the engine industrial base. The NGAD platform is the only aircraft publicly planned to use an “adaptive” powerplant, which could offer leaps in fuel efficiency and thrust. GE Aerospace and Pratt & Whitney are competing to build the NGAD engine under a program called Next Generation Adaptive Propulsion.
While the Air Force’s analysis substantiates the requirement for a sixth-generation fighter, it’s unclear whether the service will be able to find the funding to continue development of the NGAD aircraft and engine given significant budget pressure from other programs such as the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, the B-21 Raider stealth bomber and the nuclear-tipped Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile system, whose price recently ballooned by 81 percent.
Kendall told Breaking Defense earlier this year he was confident that a sixth-generation fighter would be built, though he left the door open to an optionally manned version. Kendall said the operational challenges, primarily due to the rise of China, have been defined by an “accumulation of threats,” noting that Cold War-era assumptions can no longer hold.
“We’re not up against the Soviet Union anymore,” Kendall said. “We’re up against China, primarily, as the pacing challenge. And we’ve got to be sure we’re doing the right thing.”
How the incoming Trump administration will handle the NGAD issue is unknown. President-elect Donald Trump has yet to name his nominee for Air Force Secretary, but Elon Musk — an influential associate of Trump who will run his Department of Government Efficiency initiative — has made his views clear.
“[M]anned fighter jets are obsolete in the age of drones,” Musk recently posted on X, the social media platform he owns.
@Breaking Defense
