If what you have done yesterday still looks big to you, you haven’t done much today
Who is a Gorbachev?, that was the man who as President presided over the dissolution of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republic, USSR, into 15 Sovereign nations and found himself come down from his large kingdom to be a fractional President of Russia.
The celebration of the 60th birthday anniversary of Nigeria last week Thursday provided another opportunity for the review of the nation state. A retrospective look was taken by many on how the 60 years’ journey have been. Even the current President of the country, Muhammadu Buhari was not left out in the deep reflections of the period. The President controversially took a swipe at some country’s previous leaders for the seeming failure recorded. Incidentally he is one of the two Nigerians within the years under review that got the rare privilege of ruling the country both as unelected military Head of state and as an elected President. The other person is Chief Olusegun Obasanjo.
There is no doubt that all is not well with this country called Nigeria. Few days before the independent anniversary, Chief Obasanjo, the man who has ruled this country longer than anybody declared it a failed state. The utterances of most critical leaders shows it clearly that something is fundamentally in the wrong about the country.
Ethnic Nationalities were long before the birthday very uncomfortable with the nation state about some happenings and were already seeking that a disengagement process be put in place in our status book in the form of a referendum.
The one Nigeria spirit of yester-years when such slogans as ‘Nigeria’s unity not negotiable’ or ‘to keep Nigeria one is a task that must be done’ was no longer tenable. All those patriotic talks are now old fashioned and are giving way to new thinking. Political and religious soothsayers and clairvoyants are queuing into the temperature of now and warning that the unity of the country is frighteningly fragile and something need to be done urgently to avert the disintegration.
Some diehards in government are however holding different views blaming such thinking on the political frustrations of the time that is prompting politicians to indulge in all forms of political intrigues and blackmail to arm-twist the government to their selfish desires.
Last week the number two citizen, the Vice President, Prof Yemi Osinbajo was so distraught with developments in the country that he had to join the fray by warning of imminent dismemberment of the country if care is not taken.
The Vice President actually did not say anything new or not known to people, his statement came with some weight only because of the quarters it came from, within the house. The apparent signal the VP’s statement tries to convey is that the highest seat of power is beginning to feel the current heat in the political space. This heat arose from the protracted injustice in the land over time.
The VP’s statement expectedly jolted some sections of the country particularly the area opposed to restructuring. He received attacks from the expected quarter, the Northern region who publicly warned him to guide his utterances. But political watchers saw his attackers as being duplicitous because they knew the number two man was being truthful and only raising alarm about the situation in the country.
Aside the ethnic Nationalities of Afenifere for the Yoruba; Ohanaeze for Ndigbo; Pan Niger Delta Forum, PANDEF for the Niger Delta and the Middle Belt Forum, MBF for Middle belters, that have been very vocal about restructuring, other voices were added lately from unexpected quarters, the clergy.
Even though the government can pretend to be absorbing the tension effectively, everything points to the fact that they are already in the kitchen and gauging the accompanying high temperature.
As these agitations accelerate, one country and her former President easily comes to mind for reference. The country is the defunct Union of Soviet Socialist Republic, USSR, which used to be a confederation of Russia, Belorussia, Ukraine, and the Transcaucasian Federation divided in 1936 into Georgia; Azerbaijan, and Armenian Republics and had a former Presidents called Mikhail Gorbachev.
Until December 26, 1991, USSR was the largest country in the World with over 8.6m square miles, approximately one sixth of the Earth’s land surface. It had nearly 300 million populations with over 100 ethnic nationalities that made up the union and each agonizing under the illusion of being the largest country in the World.
According to Wikipedia, the dissolution of the Soviet Union was the process of internal disintegration within the USSR, which began in the late 1980s with growing unrest in the various constituent republics, and ended on Boxing Day of 1991 when the almighty Supreme Soviet could not bear the pressure and voted to dissolve and terminate the union.
When Mikhail Gorbachev was elected General Secretary of the Communist Party of the USSR in 1985, a position that made him head of the party and the President of the union, dissolving the union was never in his agenda. He like President Buhari was insistent on maintaining the status quo and savoring large size of his Kingdom.
His main focus then was how to turn around the Soviet economy that was being seriously hit by communist system amidst soaring global capitalist economy. His main concern was to help jump start the failing economy, Gorbachev tried to open up the system and introduced a
restructured policy all intended to improve the standard living of his people. But to his surprise he lost control of everything as the long suppressed groups revolted. The people were more interested in the political solution which entailed restructuring than his economic agenda, the people were more loyal to their constituent republics powered by ethnic nationalities than they were to the nation. Gorbachev was getting little or no goodwill from the people as their interests were divergent. What followed eventually culminated in the final dissolution of the union to multiple 15 sovereign nation states.
The development became known as Gorbachev Reform even though the outcome was not what was intended.
What is the inference here? Even though President Buhari is not a reformer in anyway like Gorbachev his stubborn resistance to adjust to change, his obvious refusal to restructure amid cacophony of agitations may prove fatal for the country.
The President through his spokesman, Mallam Garba Shehu said that ‘the calls are recurring threats to the corporate existence of the country’, the Presidency warned that the growing agitation is unpatriotic and unhelpful as it insists that the government will not succumb to threats or take any decision out of pressure from any quarter.
Yes, it’s good to know that a government is strong and focused on its determined agenda but that can only endure if such conforms with reality. When Gorbachev set out to reform the Soviet Union, he did not anticipate the rot in the system that suppressed the people for long and was hoping to stand on old structure until he was swept off reducing his huge country of influence, his powerful Presidency of the Soviet Union to a fraction of it known as Russia.
President Buhari should do himself a whole lot of good by being responsive to happenings around. To continue to ignore or treat restructuring agitators as enemies of state is capable of being counterproductive. If Gorbachev had stood on the way of the changing times as a powerful President then, he may have lost his place in history today as a reformer who got a Union dissolved into multiplicity of nations without war. The various nations that came out of USSR are doing well now and above all they are leaving in peace. Pundits are unanimous that why United States with 50 constituent states cannot go the way of USSR is because of the true federalism in operation there.
Restructuring is not tantamount to dissolution of Nigeria union but resistance to it could. That to me is the caveat being passed down by various advocates on this issue. A second look at it could end up producing a statesman of history. Whether we like it or not, whether we accept it or not, the current nation called Nigeria is living in denial and as Gorbachev said in his book, ‘On My Country and the World’ “History teaches us, however, that when the times are ripe for change and the government refuses or is unable to change, either society starts to decay or a revolution begins.” But the two ugly options can be averted here. God help Nigeria.