“Do not criticise those who leave the Sun and run towards the fogs! Maybe they just need to disappear to get rid of the burdens of life!” ― Mehmet Murat ildan
The People’s Democratic Party, its presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar, and the running mate Ifeanyi Okowa need extra grace to be stronger than their burdens to remain standing in the face of their self-inflicted adversities.
Already, the initial arrogant thinking that the 2023 presidency is theirs for the asking (a done deal) by fielding a Northern Muslim among the front runners is fast diminishing. The candidate’s loose talk the other day that the North did not need others except him was a measure of the pressure under which he was smarting as he appeared to be pelted from numerous angles.
Political Musings this week will dwell on the self-inflicted burden of the PDP and the candidate possibly having to cope without its traditional base in the South-East in the coming polls. Ndigbo can be marginalised as indeed they are in resource allocations and other means of government patronage; but certainly, no wise politician can risk marginalising their voters or afford to treat them as electorally insignificant or peripheral.
From all indications, the 2023 presidential election is going to be a watershed. From whatever ridge of the land you stand to measure, it is going to show strange things like no other in the electoral history of Nigeria.
Since the inception of the current political dispensation in 1999, there has been a craving out there for a third force in our polity. Pundits say that it’s the only way to curtail the arrogance of the ruling class in the two leading parties. That coming to fruition has been hard because of the dominance of the ruling class in the two leading parties and its corrupt enrichment crying to high heavens.
The incumbent All Progressive Congress and the main opposition PDP have proven to be six and a half dozen. Their members have been crisscrossing and intersecting each other as they move in and out of the two parties. Nigerians have long been yearning for something new and different from the two same-coin political parties, Before no one seemed to know how to go about it.
The frustration of the people could only be heard in beer parlours, markets, and motor parks, among other places where they feel the immediate effect of bad governance. The October 2020 youth revolt tagged #EndSARS was the most visible organised show of anger against a system and it achieved a lot, thanks to the police brutality that triggered it. The #EndSARS protest, even though it was quelled by the government-instigated security agencies and the military, still made the people, particularly the Nigerian youths, appreciate their potential in a democratic setting.
It sent the youths engaging their brawn and brains outside the box for an alternative way of conveying their feelings to a deaf-mute government. While the youths brainstorm on the use of the ballot box to make their statement ahead of 2023, they have found the messages of the former governor of Anambra State Peter Obi both resonating and soothing enough to rely on as a take-off point. Against that backdrop, young people found it refreshing and stimulating Obi’s exit from the PDP to the Labour Party. The youth’s sweeping embrace of Obi and his new platform, the LP, therefore, has its origin in the #EndSARS rebellion.
When PDP pushed Obi out of the presidential primary election, not minding that the South-East from where he hails, is most logically favoured. Besides, the geopolitical zone has been the substratum of the party electorally since 1999, it was bound to have repercussions. The former vice president Atiku Abubakar who eventually picked the PDP ticket has in all his previous elections won in the South-East. Ditto the PDP.
The South-East had hoped to see a reciprocation of its faithfulness from Atiku Abubakar, especially for the tremendous goodwill he enjoyed at the peak of his political career. Alas! It never came. Instead, he blocked it and went outside the South-East for a presidential running mate.
This situation has vicariously placed both Atiku Abubakar and PDP in a very precarious and uncertain situation in the geo-political zone. Members of the party in the region have found themselves in a very tough position, especially with the growing acceptance of their own Obi by other regions and basing it on justice and fair play. The Yoruba umbrella body under Afenifere said it endorsed Obi of the Labour Party ahead of one of their own in the ruling APC because of its avowed position on justice for the stability of the Nigerian polity. Pan Niger Delta Forum, PANDEF, and Middle Belt Forum echo the same sentiment of justice and fair play.
Therefore, any anti-Obi posturing by any Southeasterner, probably based on party affiliation or whatever consideration, will fall flat in the eyes of those who pander to justice and or fair play. Such selfishness most likely will endanger their political future.
The recent attempts of Atiku Abubakar and the PDP to install Governor Ifeanyi Okowa as a bonafide Igbo man in Enugu did not achieve much because Okowa’s Igboness could not address relevant issues. While biologically, historically, and culturally Okowa’s Igbo origin cannot not be called to question, the same cannot be said of his political inclinations towards the Igbo.
As Chief John Nnia Nwodo, former president-general of Ohanaeze Ndigbo publicly confirmed, throughout his four-your tenure as the leader of the apex Igbo socio-cultural and political organisation, Dr Okowa refused bluntly to identify with Ohanaeze, never paid a dime of the mandatory running cost emoluments to the body by Igbo-speaking states of which Delta is one.
Against this backdrop, it would be hard at this time for Okowa to stroll in and enjoy his Igboness when he squandered the opportunity when he had it.
Ahead of 2023, Atiku Abuabakar and his party have some political baggage to carry as it relates to the South-East. There is clear evidence of a broken bond, both by the party and its candidate. For 23 years since 1999, the people of the South-East remained unalloyedly loyal to the PDP. Even when incumbent governments came from the centre seeking support as was the case in 2019, the zone refused to budge, declining even to give 25 per cent to the other parties. In the 2019 presidential election, for example, the South-East gave votes above 90 per cent for the PDP and the then-candidate Atiku Abubakar.
Political pundits are therefore unanimous that if PDP and its candidates are expecting any vote from the South-East in 2023, it would be akin to one reaping where they did not sow or an ingrate still expecting generosity from the benefactor. Even the holy book reminds us that those who reap where they did not sow are like brigands. It may therefore amount to political banditry for the PDP to expect votes from the South-East as usual.
Even political leaders who would want to show sheepish loyalty to their party would discover to their chagrin that they will be undermining their future, especially as it is generally perceived that Peter Obi of LP from South East is the best among the 18 contestants for the number one position. What genuine and patriotic excuse will anybody from the South-East have to make him vote against their own who happens to be the best among the lot?
When political ambition pushes one to carry the burden in our hearts instead of on our shoulders, we must seek extraordinary grace to cope with the weight. No wonder the Canada-based author and philosopher Matshona Dhliwayo said, “A hundred bricks on your back are easier to carry than a single pebble on your soul.”
PDP and Atiku and indeed the rest of Nigerians will continue to be confronted by their unwholesome attitude to the South-East and the entire ethnic Igbo, easily among the first three major groups in Nigeria. Any political ambition or calculations that continues to disregard the Ndigbo question in Nigeria will be toying with the aftermath of injustice.
Perhaps, the God factor in Peter Obi’s amazing entry into the political terrain is the Lord’s subtle way to grant the land the opportunity of righting its wrongs. Imagine the consequences of missing such a chance. May God help us not to be found wanting during this big step towards justice and fairness which can prevent the whirlwind in our polity.