With Congress unlikely to pass a new Ukraine aid package before the new year, the Ukrainians are bracing for a tough winter as military operations slow down, troops are forced to preserve ammunition and Russian attacks continue to hammer energy infrastructure across the country.
The breakdown of U.S. and European support also threatens to derail Ukraine’s economy and give Russian forces an upper hand on the battlefield.
Maksym Skrypchenko, the president of the Transatlantic Dialogue Center, a Ukrainian think tank that advises the government in Kyiv, said Ukraine can hold together for only a short time before confronting a serious shortage of supplies.
“In a month or two, we will be not able to defend ourselves against Russian missiles. We will not be able to conduct huge military operations,” he said. “More than one month is a real problem.”
Skrypchenko said it will be a “disaster” if there is no support at all next year. He remains optimistic Congress will reach a deal, though he concedes time is not on his side.
“With every week, the chances of this happening are decreasing,” he said. “It’s going to be more difficult for those Ukraine-friendly GOP senators and members of the House to vote for Ukraine support because it’s completely linked with internal debates in the U.S. And it’s also painful for us, because we also understand the logic of many Republicans, and we don’t want to be involved in the internal politics.”
President Biden wants $61 billion to keep Ukraine in the fight, but that money is being held up as Congress debates border security. Republicans have tied migration reform to Ukraine aid, but lawmakers are at an impasse on how to deal with both issues.
The final tranche of U.S. aid will run out on Dec. 30, when the last of the money goes to replace Defense Department stocks that have been sent to Ukraine, Pentagon Comptroller Michael McCord wrote in a letter to congressional leaders this month.
“Absent congressional action to approve the supplemental, the [Pentagon] anticipates only one additional drawdown package will be available,” McCord wrote, urging Congress to support Ukraine “without delay.”
Ukrainians began saving ammunition over the fall, aware Congress was not likely to pass another aid package anytime soon, according to Skrypchenko and public reports.
But those reserves can only last so long, and troops are already struggling with a shortage of artillery rounds, which is expected to turn more severe after weeks without foreign assistance.
Air defense munitions may also run down after a couple of months, and a shortage of those critical defenses would allow Russia to pound Ukrainian infrastructure at an even faster pace.
Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova said Ukraine has thwarted Russian bombs on energy infrastructure and prevented widespread blackouts across the country because of U.S. assistance.
“Time is of the essence,” she told CBS this week of another U.S. package. “We really are counting on our friends and partners here. I believe in Christmas miracles. I really hope that this Christmas will show that all civilized people, all people who believe in freedom, that we can stay the course.”
It’s not just the U.S. where Ukraine support has faced resistance. Last week, Hungary blocked a $52 billion European Union package for Ukraine.
John Herbst, the senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, said Ukraine is in a “pinch” but described it as a manageable problem for the next few months. Still, he said it will grow worse over time and that “a lot depends on Europe.”
“If Europe passes the aid package … a truly dangerous scenario is pushed back by several months, if not longer,” said Herbst, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine.
As for the U.S., Herbst is mildly confident Congress can pass something this winter without too much damage to Ukraine.
“My view is if we can get this done by March, it’s unfortunate for Ukrainian casualties,” he continued, “but not irreparable damage.”
While there is some $4 billion left for Ukraine from the approved money last year, the Pentagon is out of funds to replenish stocks it transfers to the nation. Using remaining funds could leave holes in U.S. equipment stockpiles and impact military readiness.
White House national security spokesperson John Kirby noted Ukraine has fended off Russian assaults this year because they’ve been well-armed and well-supplied.
“Ukraine still needs our help,” Kirby told reporters Monday. “And it’s well past time for Congress to act.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky traveled to the U.S. last week to shore up support in Congress, to little avail.
But he also met with defense contractors as Ukraine seeks to ramp up internal production to become more independent and less reliant on Western aid. Zelensky said his country is on track to produce a million rounds of artillery shells next year — but cautioned they are still behind on production and manufacturing infrastructure.
“Unfortunately, it’s still a challenge to produce shells … we are still left with old-time Soviet red tape,” Zelensky said Tuesday during an end-of-year press conference. “We will do that, but it will take time.”
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warned in a report last month that anti-armor weapons, air defense munitions and artillery rounds remain “existential requirements” for Ukraine.
ISW analysts said the war has reached a general stalemate across the 600-mile front because neither side has committed enough resources yet. But they said Russia could win the war if Western support continues to dwindle.
“Ukraine’s ability to prevent Russian forces from conducting large-scale mechanized maneuver warfare, most crucially, remains absolutely dependent on the continued provision of Western aid on at least the current scale,” ISW researchers wrote in the report.
If Ukraine were to run low on critical air defense munitions, Russian bomber planes could begin a major campaign to hammer Ukrainian cities and military bases, according to war analysts. So far, Western surface-to-air missiles have prevented that from happening.
Western-supplied artillery shells, along with anti-armor weapons such as Javelin launchers, have also kept Ukraine in the fight and enabled it to hold the line against Russian onslaughts. But a shortage of those would likely open up holes in Ukraine’s defenses.
Ukraine will also struggle with a crippled economy if U.S. assistance falls off, as the ramifications of escalating Russian attacks ripple across the country, according to analysts.
The $113 billion in aid passed by the U.S. last year covered key financial funding for Ukraine, including paying the salaries of government workers and helping to keep energy flowing to schools and hospitals.
Herbst, from the Atlantic Council, said the economic aid is just as vital to keep Ukraine’s government functioning through the war.
“The economic aid is essentially making sure the Ukrainian government can function,” he said. “Last year they lost 33 percent of their economy during the invasion. So it’s almost as important as weapons.”
Herbst said Ukraine was facing “the most dangerous period” of the war but was confident that if Ukraine gets everything it needs from a fully supportive U.S. government, they can win.
“As long as American aid is not diminished, Ukraine will eventually win the war,” he said. “But if American aid were to disappear, the prospect of Ukraine losing is very real.”
@The HILL