Last year Burkina Faso surpassed Afghanistan as the country most impacted by terrorism, with nearly 2 000 deaths as the global terrorism epicentre shifts from the Middle East into the Sahel.
This is according to a new report by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP). Its Global Terrorism Index 2024 recorded 1,907 terrorism-related deaths and 442 injured last year.
Sub-Saharan Africa continues to be the most impacted region by terrorism in 2023 followed by the Middle East
and North Africa (MENA).
Within sub-Saharan Africa, the Sahel is the most affected region, accounting for almost half of all deaths from
terrorism and 26 per cent of attacks in 2023. Five of the ten countries most impacted by terrorism are in the Sahel
region.
Deaths from terrorism are now at their highest level since 2017. However, they are still almost 25 per cent lower than
at their peak in 2015. The largest falls in terrorism since 2007 have occurred in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Nigeria.
This year marks the first that Iraq does not appear amongst the ten countries most impacted by terrorism since the inception of the GTI. By contrast, this is the first year that Israel has been ranked in the ten most impacted, with its previous highest rank being 18th in 2012.
Burkina Faso was the most impacted country, followed by Israel, and then Mali. This is the highest ranking on the index for all three of these countries. Afghanistan fell to sixth place on the index. This is the first time since 2018 that Afghanistan was not the country most impacted by terrorism, and the first time it was not ranked in the five most impacted countries since the inception of the index.
Pakistan moved up three places to fourth on the Index, its worst place since 2016. Syria remained static at fifth place, while Nigeria, Myanmar and Niger retained their respective eighth, ninth and tenth places from the prior year. Somalia improved four places to seventh.
Pakistan, Nigeria, and Somalia have been the countries most consistently impacted by terrorism since 2011, with all three countries never having been ranked outside the worst ten.
According to the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)’s Global Terrorism Index 2024 report: “Nigeria recorded its first increase in terrorism in three years in 2023, with total deaths rising by 34 per cent to 524. This year marks Nigeria’s highest death toll since 2020, driven by a surge in conflict between ISWA and Boko Haram. If the conflict between these two groups was excluded, terrorism deaths would have declined by 18 per cent.
“Civilians were the most targeted group for the second consecutive year in 2023, followed by military personnel. Civilians were targeted in over a quarter of all attacks, followed by military personnel at 21 per cent and law enforcement also at 21 per cent.
“ISWA has been Nigeria’s deadliest terrorist group for each of the past four years. It accounted for 53 per cent of the nation’s terrorism-related fatalities and 37 per cent of terrorist incidents in 2023. Even though the number of ISWA terrorist attacks decreased slightly in the past year, the death toll rose by 27 per cent to 276 deaths, the highest amount in the past three years.
“On average, ISWA attacks became deadlier in 2023, causing 5.2 fatalities per attack, an increase from of 3.6 in 2022. The conflict between ISWA and Boko Haram intensified in 2023, with ISWA attacks resulting in the death of 167 Boko Haram militants, the most since the two groups split in 2016. Boko Haram recorded its deadliest year since 2020, with 29 attacks leading to 151 deaths, a significant rise from the nine attacks and 72 deaths recorded in the previous year. The majority of Boko Haram’s attacks targeted civilians, but almost a quarter of their fatalities occurred during confrontations with ISWA.
“The conflict between Boko Haram and ISWA has resulted in a significant escalation in terrorism in Borno State, which experienced an increase of 63 per cent in terrorism deaths compared with the prior year. Attacks in the state also increased from 48 to 73 respectively, an increase of 52 per cent. The deadliest terror attack of the year occurred in Borno State, when 60 terrorists were killed in a battle between ISWA and Boko Haram gunmen in August. Boko Haram reportedly lost more fighters than ISWA in the attack.
“The death of Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau in May 2021 has intensified conflicts between jihadist factions. Although ISWA remains the more dominant group, Boko Haram persists as a strong, albeit weakened, adversary. Regional observers have noted that government and security forces must focus on sustained peace initiatives in Borno State, allocate adequate resources to defector rehabilitation programs, and enhance services in rural areas to weaken recruitment efforts.”
The report noted that in Iraq, total deaths from terrorism have fallen 99 per cent since 2007. The epicentre of terrorism has shifted from the Middle East and North Africa into sub-Saharan Africa, concentrated largely in the Sahel region. This region now accounts for almost half of all deaths from terrorism globally.
Generally, terrorism has become more concentrated over the past decade. The number of countries recording at least one death from terrorism fell to 41 in 2023, down from 44 in 2022 and 57 in 2015.
The breakdown shows that deaths from terrorism have increased successively each year since 2014 when no deaths were recorded. Deaths surged from 1,135 in 2022 to 1 907 in 2023, a 68% increase, despite a nearly 16% decline in the number of attacks last year. This is the second consecutive year that over a thousand people were killed in terrorist attacks in Burkina Faso.
The increase in deaths coincided with an increased frequency of civilians being targeted, with civilians now comprising over half of victims.
Northwestern Burkina Faso, near the country’s borders with Niger and Mali, experienced the most terror attacks, accounting for almost half of all attacks in 2023. Of the country’s 1 907 deaths in 2023, 1 000 occurred along the Niger border in Centre-Nord and Est. Burkina Faso’s deadliest attack of 2023 occurred in this area.
In February, at least 71 soldiers were killed in the ambush. Security forces claimed to have killed 160 assailants in the fight, with Islamic State (IS) claiming responsibility for the attack. This was the fifth deadliest attack in the world in 2023, the IEP noted.
Civilians were the most targeted group for the fifth consecutive year, accounting for 1 132 deaths or over 59% of all terror-related deaths in the country. This is an increase of more than 56% when compared to the year prior, when 725 civilians were killed.
Jamaat Nusrat Al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) continues to be the most prominent terrorist group in Burkina Faso, although attacks remained static over the period, deaths increased almost fivefold, from 134 in 2022 to 616 in 2023. This resulted in a rise in the lethality of their attacks in Burkina Faso, averaging nearly 20 deaths per attack, a significant increase from 3.9 deaths per attack in 2022.
“Islamic State also increased its activity in Burkina Faso, claiming responsibility for seven attacks compared to two in the previous year. Although the overall number of IS attacks in the country remains relatively low, deaths did increase significantly, surpassing 100 for the first time with 174 deaths attributed to the group,” the GTI stated.
The report assessed it is highly likely that the number of deaths both groups were responsible for is significantly higher, as 85% of attacks and 59% of deaths in the country were attributed to unknown jihadist groups. This puts Burkina Faso amongst the countries with the highest rate of unclaimed terrorist attacks and deaths globally.
Burkina Faso’s deterioration in the 2024 GTI mirrors its poor performance in the 2023 Global Peace Index with the country recording the largest deterioration in peacefulness in sub-Saharan Africa. The formation of the Alliance of Sahel States, a collaboration between Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, represents the regions effort to combat terrorism. In January 2024, this alliance withdrew from ECOWAS. The alliance formed after the French and UN troop withdrawals. Given the successive years of escalating violence and the uncertain political situation, Burkina Faso is likely to experience further increases in terrorism, the IEP determined.