The United Nations (UN) says that Nigeria, currently the world’s 7th largest populated country, is projected to surpass that of the United States and become the third largest country in the world shortly before 2050.
According to the UN’s biennial July 2024 World Population Prospects report, “Nigeria is growing the most rapidly” among all the nations of the world.
Already, the report said that world population is on course to peak earlier than expected this century as some of the world’s largest countries face declining birth rates.
According to it, global population is projected to peak at around 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s from the current 8.2 billion. It is expected to gradually decline to 10.2 billion by 2100 – 6% lower than anticipated a decade ago.
The UN in 2022 had estimated the world population would peak at 10.4 billion by the 2080s.
The report noted: “From 2017 to 2050, it is expected that half of the world’s population growth will be concentrated in just nine countries: India, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Ethiopia, the United Republic of Tanzania, the United States of America, Uganda and Indonesia (ordered by their expected contribution to total growth).
“The group of 47 least developed countries (LDCs) continues to have a relatively high level of fertility, which stood at 4.3 births per woman in 2010-2015. As a result, the population of these countries has been growing rapidly, at around 2.4 % per year. Although this rate of increase is expected to slow significantly over the coming decades, the combined population of the LDCs, roughly one billion in 2017, is projected to increase by 33 % between 2017 and 2030, and to reach 1.9 billion persons in 2050.
“Similarly, Africa continues to experience high rates of population growth. Between 2017 and 2050, the populations of 26 African countries are projected to expand to at least double their current size.
“The concentration of global population growth in the poorest countries presents a considerable challenge to governments in implementing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, which seeks to end poverty and hunger, expand and update health and education systems, achieve gender equality and women’s empowerment, reduce inequality and ensure that no one is left behind.
“The new projections include some notable findings at the country level. China (with 1.4 billion inhabitants) and India (1.3 billion inhabitants) remain the two most populous countries, comprising 19 and 18% of the total global population. In roughly seven years, or around 2024, the population of India is expected to surpass that of China.”
UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs, Li Junhua, said in a statement on Thursday that “in some countries, the birth rate is now even lower than previously anticipated, and we are also seeing slightly faster declines in some high-fertility regions.”
“The earlier and lower peak is a hopeful sign. This could mean reduced environmental pressures from human impacts due to lower aggregate consumption,” Li added.
Globally on average, women are having one child fewer than they did in 1990. In over half of all countries, the average number of live births per woman has fallen below 2.1, which marks the level required for a population to maintain a consistent size without migration. The UN cited that countries such as China, South Korea, Spain and Italy have “ultra-low” fertility rates.
As of 2024, the population has already peaked in 63 countries including China, Germany, Japan and Russia. The total population of these countries is stipulated to fall by 14% over the next 30 years.
However, in nine countries including Niger, Somalia, the Central African Republic and the Democratic Republic of Congo, “very rapid growth” is projected where total population of this group is set to double between 2024 and 2054.
For 126 countries including the United States, India, Indonesia, and Pakistan, population is expected to peak in the second half of the century or later.