By Remi Olatunde & Ndubueze Nwosu
Everywhere you look in the world today, there is one form of conflict or the other. Indeed, the world is no stranger to conflicts. But could we have avoided some of the conflicts that are destabilizing some regions of the world today? How has world leadership contributed to fueling these conflicts and could they have done better?
In the post-Trump era, the absence of the 45th President of the United States has sparked debates about the potential impact on global stability. While Donald Trump’s “America First” policy garnered both support and criticism during his term, his absence from the political stage may have inadvertently contributed to increased tensions and conflicts in certain regions.
During his Presidency, Trump pursued an “America First” agenda, emphasizing a more unilateral approach to foreign policy. Supporters hailed this as prioritizing American interests while critics feared it could lead to isolationism and strained international relations.
In retrospect, proponents of Trump’s approach argue that it might have acted as a deterrent to certain conflicts, citing his reluctance to engage in prolonged military interventions.
One region that has come under scrutiny is the Middle East. Trump’s administration brokered historic normalization agreements between Israel and some Arab nations, challenging the traditional dynamics of the region. The absence of Trump’s diplomatic maneuvers left questions about the sustainability of these agreements and the potential for renewed tensions.
Little wonder then that in a post-Trump Presidency era, Hamas decided to bear its fangs against Israel, and Israel reciprocated with an iron fist that has left thousands of people dead and millions displaced from their homes. Factor in Hezbollah’s fiery exchanges with Israel on the northern border, the Houthis disruption of shipping traffic on the Red Sea, and Iran’s threatening fire and brimstone, and what you will have in no time is a conflagration of the entire region.
In Europe, Trump’s skepticism towards NATO and his emphasis on burden-sharing raised concerns about the alliance’s strength. The absence of his administration altered the dynamics within NATO, influencing member states’ commitment to collective defense and potentially affecting the deterrence factor against external threats.
It can be argued that with Trump in charge, Ukraine would not have been encouraged to go to war with Russia and NATO would have found a way to resolve their issues given that a Trump administration would have thought twice before appropriating billions of dollars in military aid to Ukraine when such funds would have gone a long way to boost the agenda of making America great again.
Another aspect to consider is Trump’s approach to North Korea. While the situation on the Korean Peninsula remains delicate, Trump’s unconventional style of diplomacy, including summits with Kim Jong-un, added a layer of unpredictability. Without Trump’s direct involvement, the dynamics between North Korea and the international community have shifted, potentially impacting regional stability. Propaganda and waste balloons are little triggers that can lead to all-out war.
Additionally, the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan under Biden’s administration was a significant policy shift. Critics argued that this move could create a power vacuum and lead to increased instability.
In the absence of Trump’s Presidency, the situation in Afghanistan becomes more complex, and the potential for conflict escalations looms.
In conclusion, the absence of a Trump Presidency has greatly influenced global stability. The impact on specific regions such as the Middle East, Afghanistan, North Korea, Africa, and Europe raises important questions about the role of U.S. leadership in preventing or contributing to conflicts.
As the world waits for Americans to elect their 47th President come November, many within and outside America will conclude that Trump coming back for a second term in office will be a blessing to the world.
Remi Olatunde and Ndubueze Nwosu are Conveners, Africa for Trump Group