“What we plant in the soil of contemplation, we shall reap in the harvest of action.” – Meister Eckhart
As President and the Commander-in-Chief of the Nigeria Armed Forces, Bola Ahmed Tinubu wakes up this morning (if he ever slept last night) to receive initial intelligence reports across the country on the planned national protest starting today, his historic harangue to the Nigeria Police eleven years ago, precisely on November 29, 2013, during one of his many fulminations against the government of President Goodluck Jonathan will be ringing a reminder in his head: “Police do not attack protesters. Your children are involved. Your lives are involved. Your children’s future lies here,” he admonished intensely then.
If the President had wanted to forget his past actions and utterances, social media people would not permit it as they have front-loaded all his statements to remind him where he was coming from.
So far, even if this nationwide strike action fails to accomplish its desired goals, it has already achieved something going by the panic and trembling that it already gave to the government. From the President to all his security apparatchik as well as the ruling party are all nervy about today. The National Assembly has been forced to proceed on vacation and the exodus of politicians out of the country as reported shows the apprehension the strike has created.
The petrified state of the President on this is understandable given the torment he gave other leaders through protests when he was in opposition. He appears to be reaping what he sowed, a good action will reap good outcomes and vice-versa.
God so designed life in such a way that everything you do, everything you say, and every choice you make, sooner or later comes back around. Politicians would even wish that whatever they do or say that is not in their best interest should not be front-loaded to them but should be put in a trash can of history never to be remembered.
There is this saying that one who uses a machete harmfully detests a person with a machete walking behind him. President Tinubu is a known chronic protester against governments, whether military or civilian. Kaduna-born Senator, Shehu Sani called him the grand master of protests from whom the young ones learnt.
The nervousness generated around the Presidency on today’s nationwide strike therefore has a history and it’s what is causing the anxiety. Especially as the strike is also an ill wind that nobody can predict the outcome not even the organizers. The intelligence services have tried to heighten the tension by raising both imaginary and real alarms.
The fear and concern over the protest is understandable for one who knows what nemesis means or who understands the common idiom that what goes around comes around. Meaning that the consequences of one’s actions will eventually come back to haunt him.
There was no evil name Tinubu and his brother Prof Wole Soyinka did not call President Goodluck Jonathan and his wife, ‘Terrorist’, ‘Nebuchadnezzar’, ‘Shipopotamus’ etc for slightly increasing fuel price from N65 per litre to N141 per litre which was eventually forced down to N87 per litre after the protest and today at driver’s seat and removing the subsidy resulting in the product hike from N197 to N670, yet they expect the suffering people bearing the brunt to keep quiet.
Even if the people stay mute, the god of nemesis will not. There is what exists in politics called Karmic justice, meaning that whoever has engaged in unethical behaviour or treated others poorly may eventually face similar treatment themselves or whoever makes decisions that harm the people may ultimately face negative consequences yourself. Tinubu’s May 29, 2023 fiat statement ‘subsidy is gone,’ certainly came with enormous consequences that are giving birth to today’s protest.
With the cyclical nature of politics, former President Jonathan looking back will just be musing himself as he watches his past tormentor-in-chief struggling for life and on tenterhooks, as political fortunes have changed quickly, Tinubu now facing similar challenges and criticisms they once inflicted on him.
Political history is awash with leaders who suffered for using tactics they once criticized. America’s Richard Nixon’s resignation due to Watergate, after he had previously used similar tactics against his political enemies.
The electoral defeat of politicians who supported unpopular policies or scandals, such as the UK’s Conservative Party after the Brexit debacle. The point being underscored here is to sound a reminder to politicians that political actions have consequences and that the tables can turn quickly.
The Nigeria security operatives, the DSS, the Police, and the Military have all given the protest a name different from what the planners mean. They have even concluded that the protest will be violent and are trying to address the violence ahead of time.
But all the anxiety notwithstanding, the full success of this protest remains doubtful because of the level of government mobilization against it. Something tells me that the protest began and ended in the hype given to it on social media.
If you say you are hungry and angry and your reaction is not only measured but arranged, your anger is certainly not from within but from outside. Kenyan people didn’t make noise before their action day, the World just began to see action. The Arab Spring was triggered by specific incidents like the self-immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi in Tunisia (December 2010) and the arrest of activists in Egypt (2011) sparked the protests. These factors combined to create a perfect storm that led to the outbreak of protests and uprisings across the Arab world, starting in Tunisia and spreading to Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen, and other countries.
But for our case, the global community started hearing of Nigeria’s protest for hunger months before today which means the hunger is not as biting.
When a reaction of anger from within comes, it would be spontaneous and brazen. It would be driven by only one goal.
If the planners of this Nationwide Strike are familiar with the Igbo adage – ‘Agha akaraka adi eri ngwo’ro’ – a foretold war hardly consumes a cripple, why because he has all the time and space to exit from the war zone. That is exactly what the planners of today’s strike did, over-hyping the protest and giving the government all the time to plan for a neutralizer, but instead, they are calling and inducing stakeholders including fake clerics and raising fantasy advocate groups.
If this protest succeeds, it then means that even from within, the government is not popular and unwanted because the planners gave it all out as if they designed it for negotiation, not for action.
Many political watchers both within and outside the country including some members of the ruling party wish that this protest succeeds because it would help to deepen our democracy and engender respect for the people. If it turns positive, it will be listed among such successful rebellions like The Civil Rights Movement (1950s-1960s) in the United States; The Anti-Apartheid Movement (1940s-1990s) in South Africa! The Women’s Suffrage Movement (late 19th-early 20th century) globally; The Arab Spring (2010-2012) in the Middle East and North Africa; The Climate Change Movement (ongoing) globally and of course the ongoing Kenyan revolution.
But the concern is that all the rebellions that succeeded in the past had these key characteristics – Clear goals and messaging; Organized leadership and strategy; Nonviolent tactics; Broad coalition building and alliances; and Persistence and resilience.
The pessimism of many on this Nigeria protest succeeding is because when you compare it with others that were successful, they fall short of the essential characteristics. For instance, can Nigeria’s protest be able to raise the required awareness about a cause or issue, be able to mobilize public support and build a movement, Influence policy decisions and government actions, Hold those in power accountable and result in legislative or social change? Critical minds do not feel too optimistic about the organization of the protest. The demands rolled out by the planners didn’t show a people with tactics. They appear to be chewing more than their mouth can carry making it look more like a political theatrical presentation than a revolt.
But notwithstanding, American polymath, Benjamin Franklin encourages us to note that ‘rebellion against tyrants is obedience to God.’ And former American President John F. Kennedy reminds us that those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable. This means that if what protesters are doing today is genuine and honest, they need to realize that it’s not gotten without struggle, the result doesn’t just fall like a ripe mango. They must have made it fall even if it means climbing the tree. And even if revolutionaries die in the process, the revolution will survive because the language of the struggle is ‘Aluta continua,’ a Portuguese word meaning the struggle continues and that a fight for freedom, justice and equality is ongoing. God help us.