It is three years since the commencement of the Monday sit-at-home in the five States of the South-East geopolitical zone. The Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) had declared every Monday a sit-at-home day starting from August 9, until its leader Nnamdi Kanu is released from prison. Undoubtedly, it has put intense pressure on the booming economy of the region.
Not anymore, as the Monday sit-at-home has resulted in heavy loss of revenues running into trillions of naira and a sharp decline in foreign investment inflow. It has also led to violence, killings and destruction of properties/infrastructure and businesses. According to SMB Intelligence, not less than N7.6 trn has been lost in the region on account of the rising insecurity.
Although the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) had suspended the Monday sit-at-home, other groups sympathetic to the cause have been implementing it with much vigour and violence. The incarceration of IPOB leader, Mazi Nnamdi Kanu, by the federal authorities despite court orders for his release has further fueled the insecurity in the South-East. The more the Monday enforced holiday is being observed, the more the South-East economy bleeds. Unfortunately, transporters from the region lose an average of N10bn every Monday. This represents about N700bn annually and N3trn since the sit-at-home order began three years ago.
An investigation sponsored by the International Centre for Investigative Reporting (ICIR) revealed that between August 2021 and December 2022, the South-East economy lost a whopping N5.325trn. The amount may be higher when all the direct and indirect costs of the sit-at-home are included. The current revenue figure represents mainly micro-enterprises. The social and economic costs of deaths, destruction of property and other costs are not factored in the total revenues lost within the last three years. Before the beginning of the crisis, the South-East is reputed to have the largest Diaspora remittances in Nigeria.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that the South-East has emerged as one of the least in terms of revenue profile, especially in Internally Generated Revenue (IGR), with an all-time low IGR of N53bn in 2021. None of the five states in the region met its projected revenue target since 2021. According to NBS figures, Anambra State only met 27 percent of its revenue target in 2021 and 2022 financial year. Others achieved less than 15 per cent of their estimated revenue. A breakdown of the figures showed that Abia generated only N7.5bn in 2021, Anambra N12.77bn, Enugu N14bn, Ebonyi N7.7bn and Imo N9.9bn. Sadly, the IGR of the states dropped drastically in the last two years.
The latest report by SBM Intelligence claimed that between July 2023 and July 2024, Anambra ranked as the ‘headquarters of the ransom-for- kidnapping in the country,’ with about N350 million paid by victims of kidnappers. This is far more than Rivers State with ransom payment of N67million. Before the IPOB Monday sit-at-home order, the South-East was ranked the best-performing zone in the country in the West African Examination Council (WAEC) and National Examination Council (NECO) results. But academic calendar in the zone has been repeatedly disrupted by enforced holidays. This has reduced the inflow of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI).
Moreover, the economic policies of President Tinubu administration have worsened the situation. According to the NBS, out of the $456.7bn that Nigeria recorded from 2020-2023, the South East states attracted only 6 per cent FDI as a result of the sit-at-home order. Within this period, investment profile for the region totaled $265.8m. These include $66m in 2020, $4.47m in 2021, $36.97m in 2022 and $154m in 2023. Within the same period, the South-West region received capital importation inflow of $20.29bn, representing 82 per cent of total FDI.
Many businesses have since relocated from the South-East to other zones. Some have collapsed because of the insecurity. Some rural markets are no longer functioning and people have abandoned their homes. No potential investor will like to invest in a hostile and insecure environment. The ease of doing business is very low in the region. Although the governors, Ohanaeze and other stakeholders have made some efforts to ensure peace in the zone, they should do more. The restoration of peace in the zone should be given a strategic regional push.
We urge the governors and other stakeholders in the zone to collectively and meaningfully engage the youths. The governors should prioritize the creation of massive jobs by providing the needed enablers. We say this because the insecurity in the region is so much driven by poverty and youth unemployment. We decry the capital and talent flight from the region and task the governors to make the region livable and attractive to investors. On no account should the South-East be turned into a war zone. Without peace, the region will neither attract the needed FDI nor witness the expected socio-economic development.
We call on our investors and entrepreneurs to invest massively in the region. Above all, the Federal Government should show much commitment to bringing peace in the zone by releasing Nnamdi Kanu. Many Nigerians believe that releasing the IPOB leader will hasten the return of normalcy in the zone.
@Anambra People, https://anambrapeople.com.ng/2024/09/10/the-looming-collapse-of-s-east-economy/