By Iliyasu Gadu, Ilgad2009@gmail.com
08035355706 (Texts only)
The opinion polls in the coming presidential elections scheduled for November 5 in the United States of America are tight between Vice President Kamala Harris of the Democratic Party and former President Donald Trump of the Republican Party. Most polls recorded give Harris a slight edge over Trump following a ‘’bounce’’ of favourable rating after the recent presidential debates between the two candidates in which the VP by most accounts performed better.
Indeed since her entry into the race to replace President Joe Biden, Kamala Harris has managed a steady rise in the polls to the point where she is now leading slightly. When she was drafted by the Democrats to replace President Biden, challenger Donald Trump was recorded as having an unassailable five per cent gap in the poll ratings leading many to conclude that former President Trump will go on to win the elections in November 5.
But upon her entry into the race to replace President Joe Biden, Harris not only closed the gap, she is by overall tally of the opinion polls presently, leading by about 5 per cent. Many expect that in the one and half months remaining, Harris will maintain that lead and go on to win the US presidential elections.
Kamala Harris is on the cusp of ground shaking history. In the likely event of her winning the US presidential elections on November she will become the first woman to lead the most powerful country on earth. Not only that, she will also be the first African-American, Asian-American to achieve that remarkable feat. She will add that to the feat already achieved by being the first woman to be Vice President of the United States and the first African-American, Asian-American to do so, all within a decade.
The prospect of a woman not to talk of a non-white one becoming the president of the United States of America would have seemed unimaginable to some. But here we are on the verge of the tables turning and on the trajectory of another epochal event in American history since Barrack Obama became the first African-American president an event which reverberated around the world when it happened.
So what are the factors propelling Kamala Harris to this history making event and how influential can they be in helping her to a possible win on November 5?
First we must bear in mind that in America, politics and governance are determined by interest groups. These interest groups are for ever pitching their case through Congress, Media and Advocacy organizations. They are at their most strident during electioneering when they try to thread their narratives hoping to horse trade with the candidates in exchange for votes and influence.
As ever, the November 5 US presidential elections like others before it is being tacked closely by the interest groups. Kamala Harris is riding fortuitously on the crest of some of these factors which are providing the much needed heft to her possibility of winning the elections on November 5.
The first and possibly the most important of these factors is the American ‘’Deep State’’. This is the name given to the constellation of the vast and powerful American Military-Industrial complex, the Intelligence Community and other guardians of the American state. They may not necessarily be enamoured on Kamala Harris or what she is, but they take very seriously their role as the pillars and projectors of American power and influence around the world. They have been playing this role since the beginning of the second war and have thus guided the rise and dominance of America globally. Without necessarily intervening openly in American politics due to their sensitive position and status in the system, they do however maintain an eagle-eyed interest and attention on trends in American politics. In keeping with their role as protectors of American interest on many instances they had also intervene discreetly to direct and determine these trends.
The American ‘’Deep state’’ will certainly not support Donald Trump in the November 5 elections. Trump has stated clearly that his goal is to scale down American military involvement in Ukraine and other areas. He also prefers that America cuts its spending on NATO and compel other countries in the alliance to step up their on their contributions.
Certainly this will not come as cheering news to the likes of huge defence contractors like Lockheed-Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, Boeing, General Motors, General Dynamics etc. Trump had also had a well- publicised run in with several Generals in the American military and intelligence establishments which had led to a lot of animus.
It is a foregone conclusion that the ‘’Deep state’’ will pour money and deploy dark tactics to prevent a Trump victory on November 5. And this is likely to boost the chances of a Harris victory. Indeed it may not be totally out of expectation that the ‘’Deep state’’ was behind the move to prevail on President Biden to step down from the race and draft in Vice President Kamala Harris as it was looking likely that Trump would defeat him. A very American coup one would say.
The second factor that favours Harris in the race is the American Foreign Policy establishment. The guys at Foggy Bottom will not forget in a hurry that during his Presidency, Trump ran American foreign policy with reckless and chaotic abandon. Allies like Germany, France and even Britain bristled at Trump’s often undiplomatic statements and interventions in their internal affairs. Trump’s Ambassador to Germany in particular behaved like an American Governor-General of Germany with his disregard of diplomatic protocols in his conduct which led to spats between the two countries. It got such that former American Ambassadors had to write an op-ed which was carried by major American newspapers. With the hindsight of these experiences, the influential American foreign policy establishment will not relish a Trump victory. They will prefer to support Harris.
Thirdly, you can shoot down the moon, but the major influential American newspapers like New York Times, Washington Post, Chicago Sun-Times, Los Angeles Times, Wall Street Journal etc will never be caught endorsing Trump. It will be against their hallowed principles of promoting decency, values, ethics and probity which Trump by his history of public, private and business practices is grossly short of. Trump’s dark one liners and unrestrained speeches and statements may make good copy to other papers but for the mainstream papers it makes bad optics to be seen endorsing him. And when the endorsements begin to kick soon, about 60 per cent of the mainstream American media organizations will reject him.
There are also other important American institutions like the Wall Street, the American Legal Establishment and others who find Trump’s history of business and legal infractions as abhorrent and would not like a repeat of his presence in the White House.
And last but not the least the factor of Trump himself, a detestable, erratic, egotistic, divisive, grumpy, grouchy and grudge bearing figure with just about everyone is certainly a minus for the hallowed office of the President of the United States. Majority of Americans would not want him in that office and they will do so with their votes on November 5.
If as seem likely that Kamala Harris wins the US Presidential elections on November 5, it will be down to not what she is but the good fortune of having an opponent who many do not like and are willing to prevent him from winning by voting for her instead.
Iliyasu Gadu, a former Foreign Service Officer who served at the Nigerian Missions in Germany and the United Kingdom (UK), is a columnist with Daily Trust