“When Injustice Becomes Law, Resistance Becomes Duty”- Thomas Jefferson
In 2020, Governor Godwin Obaseki gave a stern response to Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s desire to return Edo State to the All Progressives Congress, APC, saying to him bluntly that ‘Edo no be Lagos’ and the Governor had his way. Today Tinubu as President is saying that APC will take back Edo and make it as beautiful as Lagos. This is the background that set the stage for Saturday’s make or mar election in Edo State.
No one can capture the mood of the September 21st 2024 Edo State gubernatorial polls better than Governor Obaseki who declared it ‘a do or die’ election. Added to his statement, the Governor and his party, the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP have refused to sign the cosmetic peace accord that the former military Head of state, General Abdulsalami Abubakar and his team always parade every election cycle with little or no impact.
The tension in the State has been perceivable with political pundits practically agreeing that the election is going to be tempestuous and choppy. The edginess and hostility over this election are not without history. It’s all a continuation of the animosity between three former friends bonded by the business of governance and now being set apart by politics. Adams Oshiohmole, Godwin Obaseki and Asue Ighodalo, one former Governor, one serving or outgoing Governor and another an incoming Governor by his wish. The triumvirate was once pals dancing around Edo State funds and having been exposed to the sweet taste of political power, they have gone Gaga in their quest for it and are now enemies ready and willing to go to any length to undermine each other.
Added to the background that is making the Saturday Edo poll taut is the ‘Edo no be Lagos’ dimension that was played up four years ago.
That year, during the first stanza of this fight between Oshiohmole and Obaseki, Oshiohmole had gone to seek the support of the indefatigable Lagos strong man, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu who assured him APC must win Edo but Obaseki gave a quick and an emphatic response then that ‘Edo no be Lagos’ where the Asiwaju holds sway in and out of office. After the contest, Obaseki won and proved really that Edo was not Lagos.
But going into Saturday’s battle, the Lagos unwearying man is now the national Emperor controlling the three critical institutions that are needed to win any elections In Nigeria which are, the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, the Police and the Judiciary. What Obaseki and his party have in their possession going into this Saturday’s electoral battle are just Edo voters who have little or no impact since they do not seem to matter in Nigeria’s unique electoral jurisprudence.
This opinion derives from the various judicial pronouncements in the 2023 general elections at all levels of the courts which shows that those who vote do not determine the winner but those who count the votes and the Police who protect them to announce the results and direct losers to go to court for the Judiciary to stamp whatever they pronounce. So, Obaseki even as incumbent is going into Saturday’s poll as an underdog because he has none of what gives victory in Nigeria’s elections.
INEC is still being manned by Prof Yakubu Mahmoud who directs voters to go right while he goes left. The Edo State Resident Electoral Commissioner, REC, Dr Anugbum Onuoha is the first cousin of the FCT Minister Nyesom Wike who nominated him for the appointment in the first place and possibly influenced his posting to Edo State where he has an axe to grind with Obaseki. He had also publicly declared that he would never support his party and its candidate in this election even though they were of the same political party. Also added to this is the Police Commissioner in the State who is said to be a pal of the same FCT Minister.
Further strength has even been given to the anti-Obaseki, PDP team by the 58-second viral video of President Tinubu assuring the people of Edo during his campaigns in 2022 that if he becomes President he would reclaim the State for the APC and make the State as beautiful as Lagos State. Hear him, “You know me well, you know Adam Oshiomole well, we are still going to fight further, don’t worry, we are with you, you will not walk alone. One thing I can assure you is this: Do you want Edo back? As the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, I will give Edo back to you. Edo will turn into a beautiful, if not more beautiful, and will be equal to Lagos. Be assured of that.”
So, against this backdrop and given the grab-and-run abracadabra witnessed in 2023, who will blame Obaseki if he declares Saturday polls a do-or-die affair? If he fails to fight now he will end up in jail so why won’t he fight to finish?
Edo voters, PDP and the Labour Party are all up against a perilous opponent who is shameless about electoral manipulation and backed by a corrupt and filthy security system whose efficiency is only seen during electoral doctoring rather than crime combating. And standing by to endorse all their atrocities is a visibly compromised judiciary whose interpretation of the law is based on extraneous factors induced by pecuniary interests.
What Governor Obaseki, PDP and the Labour Party must know to be properly guided is that confronting election riggers like the ruling APC that is heavily backed by all the apparatchik of government requires a strategic and multi-faceted approach.
They must ensure that the noise they will make when they are beaten must show incontrovertible evidence that they were rigged out. They must ensure evidence-based accusation, and concrete evidence of rigging, including documents, witness statements, and data analysis, not minding that their pals are occupying the judiciary who knows? They must keep mounting public exposure using social media, and be ready for public protests to raise awareness.
This election will be watched by the global community therefore efforts must be made to Inform international observers, diplomatic missions, and global organizations like the UN or EU. These bodies will have no legal power to upturn any illegality but they have enormous pressure to exert. But more important is organizing citizen-led initiatives, rallies, and petitions to demonstrate public demand for votes to count.
The PDP and LP should be conscious of the fact that APC has weaponized poverty and with more resources for the corrupt system at their disposal, they will have more to mobilize to make them look like they are the victim. What that entails is that safety must be prioritized and strategic planning applied when confronting election riggers, as they may retaliate or use violence to maintain power.
Perhaps the most disturbing fallout from these Edo gubernatorial polls is that because election manipulation has become inevitable, it’s leading to voters losing trust with the feeling that their votes won’t count or that the outcome is predetermined. This disgruntlement is what has fueled the increased tensions as frustrated citizens may turn to violence, and threaten stability and insecurity in the land. Boko Haram which gave birth to terrorism in Nigeria came as a fallout from gubernatorial election infighting in Borno State.
In addition to the negative consequences highlighted above, election rigging undermines democracy and erodes democratic institutions and norms. It disenfranchises voters and leads to weak and ineffective governance.
But all the hullabaloo notwithstanding, the people of Edo State have options, the choice is theirs to end the cycle of infighting and unhealthy political competitiveness that engulfed the State since Adams Oshiohmole governed the state. If Edo voters allow APC into Dennis Osadebe’s House again, the crisis will just begin because Obaseki will be heading to jail perhaps by the time the trio of Tinubu, Oshiohmole and Wike come on him. Neither will the scuffle end if the voters settle for Ighodalo and PDP because that will open fresh grounds for the ‘Tailor and the Board Chairman’ to continue their supremacy fight.
Perhaps the people of Edo might just decide to end all these and go for the third and more peaceful option, Olumide Akpata and Labour Party who has zoning issues as his major cog, after all the State is at the forefront of the struggle for a new Nigeria through the Obidient Movement, a group that believes that a new Nigeria is possible but first need to dismantle the criminal gang gripping the system. The Edo voters are lucky that they are not in a tight corner like the American voters who have two tight options, pro-abortionist and LGBTQ Kamal Harris and anti-immigrant Donald Trump. Even the Supreme Pontiff, Pope Francis had to admonish American Catholics to go for the lesser of the two evils.
If the Pontiff was advising the Edo people, he would be heard loud and clear urging them, to throw away the two evils and vote for peace and tranquillity in their State. After all, Abraham Lincoln tells us in one of his marble statements that “Elections belong to the people. It’s their decision. If they decide to turn their back on the fire and burn their behinds, then they will just have to sit on their blisters.” And American Attorney and politician, Keith Ellison sums it up that in any circumstance, “Not voting is not a protest. It is a surrender.” God help us.