- “We must learn to live and work together as brothers or perish together as fools” – Martin Luther King Jr.
Last weekend’s systematic political corruption witnessed in the Edo State gubernatorial election established one fact – that the opposition In Nigeria led by the trio of ATIKU Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Rabiu Kwankwaso (AOK) must learn to bond and integrate as a people of common purpose or perish and remain a perpetual adversary. After 2023 and the off-circle elections in Imo, Kogi, and Edo States, it would be delusional for the opposition to still think that Bola Tinubu is an accident that just happened and will soon fizzle out.
There is no visible alternative road to a new Nigeria of our dreams unless and until politicians moderate their ambition for the sake of the country and democracy and coalesce. American author and political activist, Helen Keller reminds the opposition that “Alone we can do so little; together we can do so much.” The only time we can see farther is when we learn on the shoulder of a giant or of each other.
AOK in English phraseology means a more intensive word for OK, that is to be in a good order or condition. But for this conversation, it stands as initials for ATIKU, Obi, and Kwankwaso, the three gladiators that are very familiar in our recent political trajectory. The trio were the front-runner Presidential candidates of the major political parties in the 2023 polls. Their electoral performance in 2023 according to the INEC, were in this order, Atiku of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) came second with 6,984, 520, about 29% of the votes cast. Obi of the Labour Party (LP) came a close third with 6,101, 533 votes, about 25% of the votes cast while Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) came a distance fourth with the following numbers – 1,496,687, about 6% of the votes cast.
Political pundits strongly believe that if the trio had remained in the main opposition’s PDP where they were before leaving for another party, Tinubu would not have been declared President, no matter the level of compromise he had with INEC operatives. It would have been difficult for Mahmoud Yakubu’s INEC to carry out the doctoring, glitch or no glitch. The electoral arithmetic was that the 14,582,740 million votes garnered by these three candidates would have been far more than the 8,794 726 votes of Tinubu even though politics is not mathematics.
But the opposition was irreconcilably split because of ambition. ATIKU saw himself as the Baba of PDP that should be venerated and adored. Obi was carrying the sentiment of his enviable antecedents and coming from the South East, the geopolitical zone justifiably deserving the exalted position as power was returning to the South. Kwankwaso was swimming in the euphoria of his Kwankwassiya and rated himself far above everyone else. He even pompously tried to belittle Obi when it was suggested that he be Obi’s running mate since power justifiably belonged to the South after eight years in the North. But the February 25th, 2023 poll redefined the position and separated the boys from the men as Kwankwaso and his loquacious Kwankwassiya were quarantined to just one State of Kano with one-digit percentage votes.
The obvious missteps of these trio in 2023 brought the country to the insensate state we are now in our polity. Going forward and ahead of 2027, all eyes are still fixed on the Atiku, Obi, and Kwankwaso to see whether they have learned any lesson or are still inordinate in their ambition.
After 2023, the picture is clearer. OBI, whose performance shocked all pundits, still enjoys the sentiment of coming from the most deserving geopolitical zone in addition to his accelerated profile after the 2023 election due to his pragmatic campaign messages.
Like it was in 2023, political pundits are still maintaining their stands that the only just and fair way to dethrone Tinubu and his APC is by the three leading political figures allying to back the only Southerner in their midst who incidentally and fortunately is the most profiled and loved politician in the land today.
The political environment is anxious to see the trio work together and save Nigeria from the deteriorating situation it is at the moment.
But strong indicators are showing that it might not materialize for the same reason that it did not work in 2023 – self-centredness, arrogance, and the inability of the gladiators to shift grounds or see justice, equity, and fairness as veritable variables for political progress.
What sort of patriotism will one claim to have if he is not ready to adjust for justice and enable a bad government to be thrown out?
Rabiu Kwankwaso, with his 6% votes, recently said while declaring the main opposition party, the PDP, technically dead, that he will win the Presidency in 2027, meaning that there was no lesson learned in the voting behavior of 2023 by him.
ATIKU Abubakar, who will be 81 years old in 2027 and has contested for the Presidency of the country since 1999, is also, by his body language, warming up for 2027, not to anoint anybody but to be anointed. ATIKU’s ageless ambition is still being fertilized by him and some of his associates, who live on him every four years.
The adamant position of Atiku and Kwankwaso is regrettable notwithstanding the strongly held view of the existing power rotation between the North and South, which has become a critical point in the country since the North successfully torpedoed Goodluck Jonathan in 2015 when he tried to breach the zoning arrangement.
Obi, who is still swimming in the glee of his rising profile, is also under intense pressure from his diehard youthful supporters who feel very strongly that he stands out in all ramifications and should no longer play second fiddle to anybody. These Obi’s rabid youthful supporters, known as the Obidients, are still luxuriating in the euphoria of their principal’s rising political profile that is anchored on his antecedents, clean profile, better and deeper messages as well the advantage of age, justice, equity, and fairness all combined in his favor.
What AOK must know as a fact is that in a political compromise of any nature, accommodation, and sacrifice are needed to achieve a common goal or promote national interest?
When that happens, there will be inherent benefits, promotion of political stability and cohesion, fostering constructive dialogue and compromise, and addressing pressing national issues. A proper understanding of political players enhances democratic institutions and helps to reduce polarization and conflict. If you are in opposition and you can’t come together, what is the guarantee that when you hold power, you will be able to harmonize the polity for good governance that is needed after elections? What is even amazing is that these political leaders know exactly what they should do to wrestle power from the ruling APC but are unable to surmount the challenges of overcoming their ideological differences, building trust among themselves, and managing their competing interests. What is glaringly playing out among the AOK is their inability to balance their ambitions with collective goals and ability to maintain unity in the face of disagreements.
Before any opposition can make an impact in an election and think of dethroning a ruling party, it must encourage collaborative problem-solving, develop an inclusive decision-making process, and put national interests over party, ethnic or religious loyalties. In any political arrangement where there is teamwork and reasonable collaboration driven by fairness, results are always achievable.
Dethroning a bad government in a democracy requires a multifaceted approach that involves both institutional and civic actions.
It’s only after designing this framework among themselves in opposition that they can have a weighty voice to confront common and envisaged obstacles like the electoral system to ensure transparent, free, and fair processes. By so doing, it prevents manipulation and ensures that the people’s voices are heard and man-made glitches, as was the case in 2023, are nipped in the bud.
A viable and expedient opposition must work towards establishing a robust accountability mechanism to hold elected officials accountable for their actions and ensure that they remain transparent and responsive to the people’s needs.
It’s also the responsibility of an organized opposition to encourage active citizenship through protests, advocacy, and grassroots movements to demand change and push for good governance.
With the mess Nigeria’s judiciary has become, with its operatives even more corrupt and partisan than politicians, only organized opposition can work towards strengthening and supporting independent institutions like the judiciary, media, and anti-corruption agencies to ensure they can effectively check executive power and promote accountability.
The mistake the opposition makes in Nigeria is waiting for an election year to start the process of taking power and, by so doing, providing an enormous advantage to the ruling party.
To upstage and uproot a ruling President and his political party like Tinubu and APC with some mastery in electoral manipulation, as bad and unpopular as they are in a democracy requires sustained effort, collective action, and a commitment to democratic values. Democracy is not just a system of government; it’s a way of life that requires active participation and vigilance to thrive. Docile and divided opposition especially in a corrupt political environment like ours where poverty is weaponized, waiting for God or outsiders to fight for them may just be a tactical surrender.
Finally, Nigerian opposition politicians must embrace the facts very well articulated by Virginia Burden that “cooperation is the thorough conviction that nobody can get there unless everybody gets there.” God help us.