By ADF
More than 930,000 people have fled Sudan’s civil war for eastern Chad, the majority of them arriving in the Ouaddaï province, where locals already faced extreme poverty and ethnic tensions.
The Sudanese refugees are mostly women and children from North Darfur and West Darfur, whose capital, Al-Geneina, was the scene of abuses against non-Arab populations in 2023.
The large influx of refugees traumatized by the atrocities committed by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan is “importing new grievances against the Arab community, which are fueling the prejudices of Ouaddaïans,” according to a new report by the International Crisis Group (ICG).
These overlapping resentments “reinforce the community fractures already present in a region that experienced another major refugee crisis during the war in Darfur in the 2000s,” the report said.
The number of refugees in eastern Chad is likely to increase, but humanitarian aid already is insufficient to meet the needs of refugees and locals. The United Nations and nongovernmental organizations are offering emergency assistance at the border, but the cessation of imports from Sudan is causing higher prices in areas with low employment rates.
According to the ICG, the situation has prompted hundreds of young Chadians to “join armed groups in Sudan in the hope of getting rich.”
There also is the risk of conflict between Chad and Sudan as Sudan’s civil war grinds on. Chadian President Mahamat Déby has proclaimed neutrality in the war, but analysts say he has made business deals with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) that bring his stance into question. The UAE is the primary international sponsor of the RSF.
The deals include a $1.5 billion Emirati loan in June 2023 that included increased security, energy and mining cooperation between the two countries, and an October 2024 UAE loan of $500 million.
The ICG also reported that Déby’s government gave “tacit consent” for the UAE to supply the RSF with weapons and equipment from Chad. Emirati cargo planes regularly land in Chad after cutting off their transponders to avoid being detected, but Chad and the UAE deny they are arming the RSF.
In early November, Sudan filed a complaint against Chad over its support for the RSF with the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights. Chadian authorities responded by accusing Sudan of supporting armed groups in Chad.
Citing telephone interviews with security sources in October 2024, the ICG also reported that about 1,000 Chadian Soldiers have defected. This aligns with Sudan War Monitor reporting about desertions from the Chadian Army to the Darfur Joint Protection Force in Sudan.
Increasing threats of Boko Haram attacks in western Chad further strain its military.
In October, 40 Chadian Soldiers and an unknown number of civilians were killed in an attack on a military base in the Lake Chad area. The rebel fighters seized weapons as they escaped, according to Chad’s military. The attack prompted Déby to launch an operation to dislodge Boko Haram from the area.
Déby also appealed to the international community to intensify its support for counterterrorism measures in the Sahel and the Lake Chad Basin.
“Determined collective action is essential to eradicate this scourge, which threatens the stability and the development of the entire region,” the government said in a statement published by spokesperson Abderaman Koulamalla.
In mid-November 2024, Boko Haram killed 17 Chadian Soldiers in a weekend attack on a military post that also left 96 insurgents dead in the Lake Chad region, the Chadian Army said.
In March, an attack the government blamed on Boko Haram killed seven Soldiers, according to a joint report by Rédaction Africanews and The Associated Press.
Africa Defense Forum (ADF) is a professional military magazine published quarterly by U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM)