By Zagazola Makama
The recent attack on Chad’s Presidential Palace has revealed the fragile nature of governance and security in the Sahel region.
While initial reports from the government described the assailants as a “disorganized group” armed with rudimentary weapons, or Boko Haram terrorists, emerging narratives suggest that the incident may have been an attempted coup involving disgruntled military officers.
This divergence in accounts underscores the opacity and mistrust that often shroud such incidents in politically unstable contexts. Conflicting Narratives Government Spokesperson Abdelrahmane Koulamallah characterized the attackers as an incoherent band of individuals armed with knives and machetes. Yet, eyewitness accounts and videos circulating online hint at a more organized effort.
The attackers reportedly breached the outer perimeter of the Presidential Palace, an achievement unlikely for a disorganized group armed with makeshift weapons. Speculation about their military background raises questions about the loyalty and morale within Chad’s armed forces.
The attack occurs against the backdrop of widespread instability in the Sahel, where military juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger face similar governance crises. These regimes, often born from coups themselves, struggle to consolidate power while managing external threats and internal dissent.
The incident in Chad could inspire further unrest in the region, signaling the difficulty of maintaining security under military rule.
Chad’s leadership under President Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno has been a subject of contention since he assumed power following his father’s death in 2021. Critics argue that his administration lacks legitimacy, fueling resentment among both civilians and elements within the military.
The Déby family’s decades-long grip on power has led to calls for democratic reforms, which remain unfulfilled. The attack, whether a coup attempt or a terrorist act, reflects growing discontent with the status quo. This event underscores the precarious balance of power in Sahelian states.
Military rulers often focus on fortifying their positions in capital cities while neglecting rural areas, leaving vast swathes of territory vulnerable to insurgents and rebel groups. The absence of robust democratic structures compounds these challenges, as populations grow increasingly disillusioned with governance systems dominated by military elites.
Chad’s strategic position in the Sahel makes its stability crucial for regional security. The country plays a key role in counterterrorism efforts against groups like Boko Haram and the Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP). However, internal instability threatens to undermine these efforts, weakening collective responses to extremism across the region.
Additionally, tensions between Chad and international actors, such as France, complicate the prospects for external support. As Chad’s government works to regain public trust and stabilize the political environment, it must address the underlying grievances that fuel dissent.
This includes implementing clear transitional plans toward civilian governance, strengthening institutional frameworks, and addressing economic inequalities that exacerbate unrest.
For regional actors like Nigeria and international partners, the attack serves as a reminder of the urgent need to support governance reforms in the Sahel.
Without proactive measures, Chad and its neighbors risk descending further into cycles of coups, insurgencies, and instability. In the wake of this incident, the question remains: will Chad’s leadership seize the opportunity to pivot toward inclusivity and reform, or will it continue to navigate the treacherous waters of military dominance and political fragility? The stakes, not only for Chad but for the entire region, could not be higher.
Zagazola Makama is a Security Analyst and Counter Insurgency Expert, Lake Chad, West Africa