“When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right” – Victor Hugo
When someone gives you a dirty slap on the chick and you warn him never to try that again or else? And he gives you a second and a third, and your else never came; all you could do is shout abuses; the man may have secured a license for more slaps and even more beating since he has sized you and discovered that you can do nothing but woof. What happens going forward between you and such a man is that he will be freer with his slaps knowing that there will be no significant challenge other than yelling.
When a gang of house burglars discover that there is a barking dog without a teeth in their targeted home they will move in audaciously and undaunted.
That’s the exact picture of Nigeria’s democracy 18 months after a self-proclaimed democrat, Bola Ahmed TINUBU, mounted the throne and used the power indiscriminately, knowing fully well that the people were docile and unable to offer any resistance.
Since last week’s blatant breach of the constitution by President TINUBU who unilaterally suspended an elected State Governor and the State legislators and even went ahead audaciously to appoint a Sole Administrator, the screaming has been in a way that produces much noise but no action.
The tattered Nigeria opposition team, struggling to wake up from their slumber, tried howling, but no bite. That was to be expected, as they were never taken seriously because they were the type that could only harm the flesh, not the soul, and therefore should not be feared.
Everybody has been screaming blue murder, even the gentle President Goodluck Jonathan pulled out of his cocoon to shout out. The most consistent Nigeria leader in holding leaders accountable, President Olusegun Obasanjo, was usually on duty in condemning the ultra vires action of President TINUBU. Nigeria Bar Association (NBA) described it as an affront to democracy.
Even the hitherto vocal Nobel laureate, who had been silent for 18 months while servicing his friendship with the President, suddenly unwrapped himself from the Jagaban clothes to attack the action.
The founders of democracy envisaged that some funny behaviours could come from holders of political power, especially the executive arm, and established layers of authorities to checkmate it. The legislature and the Judiciary arms were created to check the possible excesses of the executive arm. The media, as the fourth Estate of the Realm, was also established with no direct power but with the instrument of the mobilization of the civil society and the populace for accountability in governance.
But just 18 months later, President Bola TINUBU has successfully incapacitated all these catalysts of democracy and is now doing whatever he likes, daring everyone to do their worst. Why? Because he knows too well that they are all barking and are not biting dogs. The question that may direct our conversation going forward is, why is TINUBU succeeding even though mischievously? The direct answer is simple.
President TINUBU, having been in opposition trenches all his political life, knows a lot about the so-called opposition in the country. He knows what they eat, what disorganizes them, the food they cannot resist its aroma. He knows how and when to serve these sumptuous items to them.
President TINUBU is, therefore, very well equipped with the political skills and experience needed to meander the system. That is why I don’t entirely agree with the lady National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) member, Ushie Rita Uguamaye, who says that TINUBU is a terrible President; rather, I see him as a deviously skilful President doing terrible things with power. The populace may be going through terrible things as a result, but what the President is displaying is exceptional ingenuity to gullible and terrible people who cannot stand up for their rights.
As a journalist who has been an active player in the political arena in the past four decades, I intend to liken the current situation to what we experienced before and during the era of late military Head of State, General Sani Abacha. Some striking similarities can make one uncomfortable because TINUBU has a better political sagacity that could take him where Abacha could not reach.
What are these similarities? Like Abacha, TINUBU was not the heir to the throne as Abacha wasn’t as designed by their predecessors, Generals Ibrahim Babangida and Muhammadu Buhari respectively. Tinubu and Abacha dribbled their way into office by outsmarting their predecessors.
As unpopular as Abacha’s era was, he was able to draw a template for his transition into a civilian President, and he successfully manipulated the politicians in five different political parties to endorse him, and they were all cooperating, including national football stars leading million marches for him.
Just like Abacha was between 1993 and 1998, very unpopular, TINUBU’s 18-month regime has been detesting, but strangely some stakeholders are instead succumbing to him, losing hope in the opposition that he helped to frustrate and dismantle.
The parliamentarians who are designed to checkmate him, are instead picking instructions from him and executing them without question or reference to their own political agenda or their constituency needs.
Today, Nigeria is run by one political party called Bola Ahmed TINUBU. The President is the Alpha and the omega. All ambitious politicians are moving in droves to this one political party that has the power to make and mar. Even governors in opposition who are in their first term have been sending emissaries, ‘We are with you, we are coming’
In the two chambers of the National Assembly, the Senate and the House of Representatives, four political parties are present but none can get the required two-thirds standing alone, but the unregistered TINUBU party has taken over and can easily produce at least 85% in the two chambers.
The geopolitical North, which has been priding itself as the political hub of the nation with a comfortable majority to override any issue that is not amenable to the region, has been unable to raise a single voice. Two top leaders of the North in the Senate, Senators Abdul Ningi and Ali Ndume, were thoroughly flogged and humiliated, and nothing happened. Another Northerner from Kogi, a lady for that matter, Senator Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan, could not even get a single voice of protest from Northerner or the opposition. The Ethics Committee that rushed her trial and recommended her six-month suspension is headed by an opposition Senator.
On tax reform, when the North tried to raise a voice, TINUBU just raised his head, and the music changed. The Northern Governors who started the noise with Vice President Kashim Shettima had since apologized to the king. But as reprimand, the Vice has been placed in a cooler almost a lame dock number two citizen exactly the way Abacha deputies were, for daring to lead a gang up against the king.
Before the hand of God came on Abacha, Generals retired and serving had run away for their safety. The politicians had all surrendered and the media and the civil society were being defeated by Wada Nas and his propaganda machine. The judiciary was technically non-existent. The picture today looks similar: TINUBU appears to have conquered everybody. The opposition is staggering. The media is noisy but has no impact. The judiciary is caged, and the military and other security agencies are willing tools. 2027 is turning like 1998 before the serendipity set in on Abacha.
TINUBU, as a significant witness to the Abacha era that forced him into exile, shouldn’t want to go that ignoble route. Even though there may be some visible similarities between TINUBU’s way and Abacha’s, he has the opportunity and vintage of history and, having been a huge beneficiary of democracy, will try not to follow the Rivers State trajectory in his subsequent actions by allowing the separation of power to function effectively as designed by its founders.
Today, under TINUBU’s watch, as seen in some off-cycle elections, Nigeria’s democracy has been at a critical juncture, facing numerous challenges that threaten its stability and progress. The country’s democratic system has been plagued by issues such as electoral malpractices, violence, and insecurity, which have undermined the trust of citizens in the democratic process.
One of the significant challenges facing Nigeria’s democracy today under TINUBU’s watch is the lack of electoral integrity. The country has experienced several instances of electoral violence, voter suppression, and manipulation of election results, which have eroded the confidence of citizens in the electoral process.
Furthermore, the country’s democratic institutions, such as the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), have been criticized for their lack of independence and impartiality.
To address these challenges, Nigeria’s democratic institutions need to be strengthened, and for the country to promote a culture of democracy, transparency, and accountability.
TINUBU can place himself well in the history book of democracy by implementing reforms that promote electoral integrity, such as the use of technology to enhance the voting process and reduce the risk of manipulation. But his body language is more of Abacha’s than that of a Jonathan who was ready to reform the electoral process and allow the will of the people to prevail even at his expense. Ultimately, Nigeria’s democracy can only be strengthened if all stakeholders, including citizens, politicians, and institutions, work together to promote a culture of democracy, transparency, and accountability and stop being a willing tool for selfish goals. God help us.