As Hamas Considers A Peace Deal, The Man Most Palestinians Want To Lead Them Sits In An Israeli Jail

By Leonie Fleischmann

• The Palestinian activist, jailed more than 20 years ago, tops the polls as Palestinians’ preferred leader

Since the White House released Donald Trump’s plan to end the Gaza conflict on September 29, the chances of an end to Israel’s war on Gaza is as high as they have ever been. If it succeeds, the idea of a Palestinian state being established alongside Israel will also be on the table for the first time in decades.

Palestinians were notably excluded from drafting the plan, and no measures exist to hold Israel accountable for the destruction it has caused. But the 20-point plan includes clauses that could eventually lead to Palestinian self-determination.

Under the terms of the plan, Palestinians will be allowed to remain in Gaza and there will be an amnesty for militants who commit to peaceful coexistence once the deal is agreed. Israel has committed not to occupy or annex Gaza. The plan also acknowledges the Palestinian people’s aspiration for self-determination and statehood and says a pathway to achieve that may be achievable under certain conditions.

Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he supports the plan. But on his return to Israel, he said Palestinian statehood was not written into the agreement and that Israel would “forcibly resist” the establishment of a Palestinian state. The US president’s deal will have to be approved in a vote of Netanyahu’s cabinet. It has already come in for severe criticism from at least one cabinet member: Bezalel Smotrich. Smotrich described the deal as a “resounding diplomatic failure” that will “end in tears”.

For Hamas, too, the plan crosses a number of red lines. Reports suggest that Hamas faces an existential dilemma. On one hand the plan explicitly removes any role for Hamas in the future governance of Gaza. On the other, the US president has said that a Hamas rejection would give Israel the green light to continue their military onslaught.

So, whether the next steps are a ceasefire or the continued destruction of Gaza, what has become clear is that time is running out for Hamas as rulers of the Palestinian people in Gaza. This raises the question of who could take over the reins of government for Palestinians.

The obvious answer is the Palestinian Authority (PA), which holds leadership of the Palestinians in the West Bank. The PA was formed by the Oslo Accords to administer the West Bank and Gaza. Since 2005 it has been led by Mahmoud Abbas of Fatah. In 2007, a brief civil war between Fatah and Hamas left Hamas in power in Gaza, creating a deep division between the two parties and the Palestinian people.

While the PA argues it should be the sole governing authority in Gaza, Fatah and Abbas are deeply unpopular among Palestinians. In a recent poll conducted by the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research, just 6% of Palestinians said they would vote for Abbas in an election.

The waning legitimacy of the current PA leadership puts into question its ability to rule. Corruption, lack of democracy and Abbas’s age has led for calls for someone new to lead the Palestinians into the next chapter of their history. One name has resounding popularity: Marwan Barghouti.

‘Palestinian Mandela’

Barghouti has long been seen as the key to uniting the Palestinian factions and achieving Palestinian statehood. He was described in a 2009 article in Foreign Policy magazine as “Palestine’s best hope”. More recently, in July 2024, The Economist described him as “the world’s most important prisoner.”

Despite being imprisoned in Israel since 2002, Barghouti has consistently topped polls of potential future PA leaders. His supporters have named him the “Palestinian Nelson Mandela” in the hope that he can emulate the South Africa leader by transitioning from political prisoner to the man who can unify a divided people.

Born in the West Bank in 1959, Barghouti rose to prominence as a youth leader in the years leading up to the first intifada and was elected to the Palestinian Legislative Council in 1996. But in 2002 he was arrested by the Israeli security services at the height of the second intifada and convicted in 2004 for involvement in the murder of five people. Barghouti refused to recognise the authority of the Israeli court and offered no defence at trial. He was subsequently handed five life sentences.

Barghouti’s appeal lies in his ability to garner broad support among different stakeholders – Palestinian, Israeli and international.

He gained respect from militant Palestinian factions for his armed resistance and his incarceration. Hamas reportedly placed him at the top of previous potential prisoner swap deals. Alongside this, his declared preference for unarmed resistance and his vision for democratic Palestinian governance garner him support from the Palestinians who have grown tired of PA corruption.

He is supported by Israeli peace activists as the Palestinian solution to ending the cycle of violence. Veteran activist, Gershon Baskin, explained in the Times of Israel, in April 2025, that Barghouti is “still committed to Palestinian Israeli peace based on the two-state solution”.

Voices in Israel’s security establishment also see the value of Barghouti as the Palestinian leader. Ami Ayalon, the former chief of Israel’s Shin Bet intelligence organisation, argued in January 2024 that it was time to release Barghouti and initiate negotiations with him as the popular leader of the Palestinians.

But it has been reported that PA leaders, mindful of the political threat Barghouti poses to them, have consistently opposed his release as part of potential Israel-Hamas prisoner swaps.

Unsurprisingly, for different reasons, Netanyahu is vehemently opposed to his release, stating in 2017 in response to an opinion piece by Barghouti published by the New York Times that “calling imprisoned Fatah leader, Marwan Barghouti, a Palestinian leader and parliamentarian is like calling Syrian president, Bashar Assad, a paediatrician”.

Barghouti could be an important missing piece in the unfolding puzzle towards Palestinian statehood. And it should be up to the Palestinian people who leads them. But it seems the keys to his cell are held by people who don’t want to see the Palestinian Mandela set free.

Leonie Fleischmann is Senior Lecturer in International Politics, City St George’s, University of London

@The Conversation