By Olufemi Adegbulugbe
The President of the most powerful country on Earth, President Donald Trump, has taken a position on Nigeria in a very clear and loud voice.
The summary of his message to the Government of Nigeria is that Stop the killings in Nigeria or we will do the job on your behalf.
When I read the response of President (Bola Ahmed) Tinubu to Donald Trump’s message, it was very clear to me that President Tinubu has no idea about the gravitas and seriousness of the matter at hand.
President Tinubu’s statement was very shallow and a big diplomatic blunder. It was an empty statement with no added value. Simply speaking, it was a childish statement that made mockery of Statecraft.
My objective is to present analysis of what is ahead of Nigeria vis-a-vis USA invasion of Nigeria to address and terminate terrorism.
The Costs Vs Benefits
The Costs are humongous and it is debatable if the benefits of a USA invasion of Nigeria outweighs the Costs.
Going by the history of USA intervention in Syria, Libya, Afghanistan etc, should USA invade Nigeria, regime change is a potential outcome. Fragmentation of the country is also a strong possibility.
Other costs include the fact that Nigerians will be divided. We have never been united anyway.
On the economic front, our economy will suffer and the common man will be impacted. The gains we have made on the route to economic recovery could be reversed in a matter of days.
We expect to see rapid Naira devaluation and drop in FDI.
It is for these reasons that President Tinubu must take the DJ Trump statement very seriously and this is beyond the type of watery statement issued by the Presidency.
A big cost is that Nigeria is on the international radar for the wrong reasons.
The description of Nigeria as a “disgraced country” calls for serious self examination by our leaders.
The step and statement by DJ Trump has the impact to isolate President Tinubu. Not even France will want to associate with the Government of Tinubu for now.
A government that can not secure its citizens I believe is not welcome in most civilised countries.
The benefits of course including the fact that Jihadists and terrorists will be defeated and decimated in the short and medium term. Lives will be saved and the impunity of senseless killings in Nigeria will be addressed and the message of accountability will be delivered.
Unfortunately, no one can predict the timelines.
The Impact Analysis
Regime Change and Instability leading to civil war and fragmentation are potential outcomes of a USA military invasion of Nigeria as mentioned above.
Establishment of the rule of Law in Nigeria is also a potential outcome.
The roadmap and Next Steps
The statement by President Trump should be seen as a serious wake-up call to our leaders to wake up from their slumber on duty and seize this opportunity to do the right thing, to fight terrorism in Nigeria. All forms of peace negotiations with terrorists must stop immediately.
I expect that the Tinubu administration will admit mistakes and shortcomings in the handling of insecurity in Nigeria without giving excuses.
Tinubu should request direct meetings with President Trump to discuss further.
I doubt if Trump will agree to meet with Tinubu at this stage but perhaps a meeting at the ministerial level will be a good start point.
To avoid the Libya, Iran and Syria experience, I advise strongly that the Government of Nigeria collaborate with the Trump administration to end insecurity and killings in Nigeria and to avert a potential Jihadist movement in Nigeria.
We have a big opportunity to end insecurity in Nigeria with the help of President DJ Trump. We must exploit and enhance this opportunity if we are a serious country.
It is my opinion that both Christians and Muslims will benefit from the Trump action plan for Nigeria.
There are more Muslims in IDP (internally displaced persons) camp than Christians.
There are more Muslim farmers out of jobs than Christians.
With the help of America, both Christians and Muslims can return to their homes and farms.
This matter is beyond religion. It is about doing the right thing to save human lives, and to restore the dignity and territorial integrity of a nation.
Thank you for your time.
Olufemi Adegbulugbe is a concerned citizen of Nigeria