By Halima Nuhu Sanda
In the past five years, West Africa has drifted into a dangerous political landscape. Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Niger, and now Guinea-Bissau are under military rule. Even Benin, long considered one of the region’s most stable democracies, has just faced an attempted coup. When a region of 16 countries records six coups and coup attempts in five years, it is clear this is not the result of chance or individual ambition alone. A deeper structural fragility is at work, affecting governance, regional institutions, and the social contract between governments and citizens.
The pattern is now too obvious to ignore. Public frustration is rising, democratic institutions are weakening, insecurity is intensifying, ECOWAS is faltering, and the military is stepping in. What is emerging is not a series of isolated events but a regional trend that threatens to redefine political transitions for the next generation. At the centre of this crisis is the weakening of ECOWAS, the shrinking leadership role of Nigeria, and the failure to build resilient governance systems that can withstand insecurity, economic hardship, and political opportunism.
Citizens across the region are experiencing severe governance fatigue. Leaders are elected with promises of reform but govern with the same corruption, inefficiency, and disregard for accountability. Public institutions have been hollowed by mismanagement. Legislatures are often mere rubber stamps, and judicial systems are politicised or unreliable. When democracy consistently fails to deliver security, economic stability, and social services, people stop defending it. Militaries, presenting themselves as disciplined and decisive, step into the vacuum, claiming to restore order and protect the nation.
Insecurity has been a major driver of recent coups. The Sahel region has become a graveyard of weak states. Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have lost control over vast territories to insurgent groups, including jihadist networks and organised criminal gangs. Governments that cannot protect citizens from violence, extortion, and forced displacement lose legitimacy rapidly. When the state fails to maintain even the basic monopoly on violence, the military becomes the default institution people look to for stability. This dynamic has created a dangerous precedent where coups are justified not as power grabs but as necessary interventions to preserve national security.
ECOWAS has played a complicated role in this crisis. On one hand, it publicly condemns military coups, suspends member states, and issues sanctions. On the other hand, it has tolerated constitutional coups carried out by civilian leaders. Leaders who manipulate constitutions to extend terms, rig elections, or weaken oversight mechanisms often face little consequence. By allowing civilian abuses of power to go unchecked, ECOWAS has inadvertently signaled that military intervention is the only reliable way to protect democracy or enforce order. The result is a dangerous double standard that encourages military adventurism.
The recent crisis in Niger illustrates the problem. ECOWAS threatened military intervention and mobilised forces publicly yet failed to act decisively. This sequence of threats followed by inaction sent a clear message across the region: the organisation is divided, predictable, and unable to enforce its own rules. Military leaders observing this pattern concluded they could act with minimal risk of meaningful regional retaliation. Every junta in West Africa has taken note of this strategic vacuum, emboldening them to consider coups as viable political solutions.
Nigeria, traditionally the anchor of West African stability, has not provided the leadership the region desperately needs. Domestic challenges, including economic hardship, political polarisation, insecurity in multiple regions, and governance issues, have distracted Nigeria from its regional responsibilities. Nigeria’s preoccupation with domestic affairs has left ECOWAS weakened and allowed instability to spread unchecked. Without a decisive Nigerian voice advocating for the protection of democratic norms and enforcement of ECOWAS regulations, the military has found opportunities to intervene across multiple countries.
The attempted coup in Benin should be viewed as a warning shot to the entire region. Benin was considered a model democracy in West Africa. Its political institutions had earned respect for stability, peaceful transfers of power, and adherence to constitutional norms. The fact that an attempted military takeover could occur there suggests that the contagion of instability is no longer confined to the Sahel. Coups are spreading toward the coast and threatening the very idea of stable governance in West Africa. If Benin, one of the most politically stable countries in the region, is vulnerable, no country is truly safe. ECOWAS and Nigeria cannot afford to treat this event as an anomaly.
To address this crisis, Nigeria and ECOWAS must take immediate and decisive action. Nigeria must reclaim its role as the guiding force of West Africa. The country has the economic, military, and diplomatic capacity to lead the region and stabilise fragile states. Without Nigeria at the helm, ECOWAS risks being sidelined, leaving the field open to military opportunism, external influence, and the erosion of democratic norms.
ECOWAS must also redefine its approach to governance. A new doctrine is urgently required, one that enforces term limits, condemns electoral fraud, sanctions constitutional manipulation, and applies rules uniformly across all member states. Civilian leaders should face consequences for undermining democracy just as military leaders face sanctions for seizing power. The organisation cannot maintain moral authority if it condemns military coups while tolerating civilian coups in practice.
Security stabilisation is another critical area. Insecure states are inherently prone to coups. ECOWAS, with Nigeria leading the effort, must prioritise programmes that strengthen governance, improve intelligence sharing, bolster border security, and assist states in reclaiming territories from insurgents. Addressing insecurity at its root will remove one of the primary justifications used by militaries for intervening in politics.
Finally, ECOWAS must restore its credibility through action rather than threats. Bold public statements without follow-through only emboldens military actors. Consistent, quiet, and firm diplomatic pressure, supported by enforceable sanctions and strategic interventions, will be far more effective at deterring coups than empty declarations.
West Africa is at a fragile moment in history. The region is split between democratic states and military-controlled states, and the line separating them is becoming thinner with each passing year. Nigeria cannot watch from the sidelines, and ECOWAS cannot continue reacting only after crises occur. If both do not step up now, military takeovers may become the default method of political transition in West Africa. This is a future the region cannot afford. Leadership, consistency, and decisive action are no longer optional; they are essential for the survival of democracy in the region.
Halimah Nuhu Sanda can be reached through alimahwrites@romzaibfoundation.org 08100000137 (Text only)