Tinubu’s Crises, Wike’s Dilemma

By Etim Etim

Every week, President Tinubu faces a new problem. His Tinubu administration seems to be walking from one crisis to another every now and then.  Is it negligence, incompetence or just bad luck? While security challenges are surging, the US is breathing down on him. At the moment, he’s dealing with a serious diplomatic spat with Burkina Faso. Eleven Nigerian military personnel are being detained in that country days after the plane in which they were travelling in made an ‘’unauthorized’’ landing in the south-west city of Bobo Dioulasso.

The problem started on Monday when Nigerian military cargo plane, a C-130, travelling from Lagos to Portugal was forced to land in Burkina Faso. Burkinabe authorities described the landing as ‘’unfriendly act carried out in defiance of international law’’ in a statement that evening. But Nigerian air force said technical problems had forced the plane to divert to the nearest airport ‘’in line with standard safety procedures and international aviation protocols’’.

That the landing came within 24 hours of Nigerian troops helping to thwart a coup attempt in Benin, which borders Nigeria and Burkina Faso, was enough to frighten the junta in Ouagadougou and spurn torrents of  conspiracy theories.   Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger officially broke away from ECOWAS regional bloc in January, forming a military alliance.

They now belong to a new bloc known as Alliance of Sahel States. As ECOWAS Chairman in 2023, President Tinubu had, in a moment of indiscretion, threatened to use military forces from ECOWAS countries to invade the three countries, remove their military leaders and reinstate the deposed democratically-elected civilian governments.

The threats created panic in the sub region, frightened the new military regimes and forced them to break away from ECOWAS. It was Tinubu’s first diplomatic crisis since he assumed office as Nigerian leader. Many more were to come. There have been reports of severe underfunding in foreign missions; negative impacts of non-availability of ambassadors; the President’s frequent travels and managing Nigeria’s reputation amid mounting economic and security problems. The President’s firm stand against the military juntas in Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso was met with a less cohesive West African response, weakening ECOWAS and challenging Nigeria’s traditional leadership role in the sub region.

 With the detention of the Nigerian Air Force personnel and their plane, the Burkinabe authorities are essentially exacting a revenge against Nigeria and thumping their nose at President Tinubu. Capt. Ibrahim Traore, 37, has not forgiven President Tinubu for leading ECOWAS to issue those threats and imposing a raft of sanctions after Traore deposed President Paul-Henri Sandaogo on September 30, 2022.  Burkina Faso is spoiling for a serious diplomatic squabble with Nigeria. I will not be surprised if Traore asks the Nigerian government to apologize to him.

This is not the time for the Nigerian leader to dawdle as usual. Tinubu should be prepared to handle this with all the deftness and skills he can muster. He needs help from other West African leaders and African Union (AU) to resolve this and secure the release of our soldiers and aircraft. He cannot afford to treat this with the same type of levity and casualness with which he handled our security challenges before Donald Trump posted his ‘’guns-a-blazing’’ threat on November 1.  

Nyesom Wike celebrated his 58th birthday on Friday, but immersed in a huge political turmoil, he has no reason to cheer. Days before, the Speaker of the Rivers House of Assembly and 16 other members as well as Gov. Sim Fubara had defected to APC, leaving the FCT minister practically all by himself in his own faction of the PDP. Of course, Wike will eventually move to the APC, expectedly within the first quarter of 2026, but for now, he’s facing a big political dilemma. If he defects now, the PDP would breathe a sigh of relief and begin to rebuild and prepare in earnest for the 2027 elections. That means Wike’s job, which was to kill the PDP, would not have beens done.

But if, on the other hand, he lingers a while and continues to make trouble for the Tanimu Turaki-led NWC, Fubara will have enough space and opportunity to consolidate as the leader of the APC in Rivers State. The other day, Fubara had exclaimed to a crowd that ‘’I am the number one person in APC in Rivers State’’, announcing that his agenda was to work for the reelection of President Tinubu. Do not forget that Wike has, actually, been expelled from the PDP and INEC has recognized that. The FCT minister is, in practical terms, no longer a useful political tool for the Tinubu strategists. The game is up!