By Colonel Timothy Antigha (rtd)
When President Bola Ahmed Tinubu was sworn in on May 29, 2023, Nigeria faced 7 major, overlapping security threats. Two years later, the metrics show a shift from crisis management to threat degradation. The performance is satisfactory, and the data supports it.
- Command & Budget: Political Will Measured in Naira
Political will is easiest to measure by budget and structure.
- Budget allocation: Defence/security spending rose from ₦2.98 trillion in 2023 to ₦3.25 trillion in 2024 and ₦4.91 trillion in the 2025 budget. That’s a 64% increase in 2 years, showing prioritization.
- Structure: The June 2023 replacement of all service chiefs, NSA, and IGP created reinvigorated the armed services. Since then, the National Security Council has met over 22 times as of Sept 2026, vs an average of 8-10 times yearly pre-2023.
Outcome: Faster approvals. The CDS-led joint operations model reduced inter-agency response time from 72 hours to under 24 hours in Northwest operations, per DHQ briefings.
- Northeast: Insurgency Containment by the Numbers
Boko Haram/ISWAP remain, but their operational space has shrunk.
- Territory: By NBS and SBM data, number of LGAs with active insurgent control dropped from 17 in 2022 to fewer than 6 in 2025. Maiduguri-Damaturu-Monguno roads are now passable by day without military escort.
- Surrenders: Over 104,000 ex-combatants and family members have surrendered under Operation Safe Corridor and MNJTF pressure as of Q2 2026, per Office of NSA. That’s 3x the total surrenders recorded 2019-2022.
- Fatalities: ACLED data shows civilian deaths from insurgency in Borno, Yobe, Adamawa fell from 1,842 in 2022 to 623 in 2024 — a 66% drop.
- Northwest: Banditry Degradation
Banditry was Tinubu’s toughest test. The metrics now show containment.
- High-value targets: DHQ confirms that over 78 bandit commanders neutralized between June 2023 and Aug 2026, including Dogo Gide’s deputies and Kachalla Halilu factions. Air Force data: over 300 airstrikes under Operation Forest Sanity/Fansan Yamma.
- Kidnapping: SBM Intelligence “Nigeria Kidnap Report” shows total kidnap cases fell from 3,620 victims in 2023 to 2,198 in 2024. Ransom paid dropped from ₦1.04 billion in 2023 to ₦830 million in 2024.
- School attacks: Zero mass school abductions in 2025 vs 4 major incidents in 2021-2022. Kaduna, Katsina, and Zamfara states report 40-55% fewer attacks on rural communities in 2024 vs 2023. The recent incident in Oyo State is isolated to a large extent.
- Niger Delta: Oil Security = Revenue Security
Oil theft was costing Nigeria 400,000+ bpd. Tinubu treated it as a national security issue.
- Production: NNPC data shows crude and condensate output rose from 1.22 million bpd in May 2023 to 1.60 million bpd by July 2026. That’s +380,000 bpd added.
- Pipeline breaches: NNPCL “Pipeline Vandalism Report” shows incidents dropped from 2,187 in 2023 to 1,156 in 2024. Illegal refineries destroyed by Navy: 486 in 2024 vs 152 in 2022.
- Revenue impact: Extra 380,000 bpd at $80/barrel = ∼$11 billion annual forex gain. That directly eased pressure on the naira.
- Police & Internal Security: Manpower and Tech
- Recruitment: 10,000 constables recruited yearly in 2023, 2024, and 2025. Police strength moved from ∼370,000 to ∼400,000, improving police-citizen ratio from 1:650 to 1:600.
- Welfare: Consolidated salary increase of 25-35% for rank-and-file implemented Jan 2024. Police Trust Fund projects completed: 32 new barracks and 18 forensic labs 2023-2025.
- Tech: NPF “E-Policing” portal logged 89,000+ digital crime reports in 2024. FCT and Lagos CCTV command centers now integrate over 3,200 cameras.
- Intelligence & Precision Operations.
The May 2026 strike in the North East that eliminated ISIS-SA deputy “Abu Bilal” with US AFRICOM support is proof of capability. Under Tinubu, Nigeria’s drone surveillance hours increased 4 fold from 2022 levels, per NAF data. Precision strike success rate rose from 41% in 2022 to 67% in 2024. - Troop Morale: The Human Index
Security fails without morale. Measurable changes:
- Allowances: “Operation allowances” arrears for troops in Northeast/Northwest cleared within 6 months of Tinubu taking office.
- Casualty insurance: Group Life Assurance claims for fallen soldiers paid within 90 days in 2024 vs 12-18 months previously.
- Training: NDA and foreign training slots increased 30% 2023-2025. Counter-IED training reduced military fatalities from IEDs by 28% in 2024 vs 2023.
- Root Causes: Development as Security
Security indices improve when livelihoods improve.
- Agriculture: FMARD reports 2.1 million hectares of farmland reclaimed in Borno, Katsina, and Niger under “Food Security Frontline” program 2024-2025.
- Infrastructure: 12 federal roads in conflict zones reconstructed 2023-2026, cutting travel time and ambush points. The Gusau-Funtua road saw bandit attacks drop 70% post-rehabilitation.
Bottom Line: What the Data Says.
No government ends insecurity in 24 months. The test is: Are threats being degraded, and are institutions stronger?
By 6 measurable indices — budget, territory controlled, kidnaps, oil output, police strength, and troop welfare — the answer is yes under President Tinubu:
- Budget up 64%. This is evidence of priority
2.Insurgent-controlled LGAs down 65%. This shows containment - Kidnap victims down 39%. This is evidence of public safety gain.
- Oil output is up by 31%, indicating economic security
- Over 30,000 police personnel recruited, in addition to improved tech, these have led to internal security reform
- Troop morale indicators improved, resulting in improved fighting force.
The work is not finished. But the data shows Nigeria is no longer losing ground. Under President Tinubu, the security sector moved from reactive to proactive. That shift, measured in numbers and not just narratives, makes his performance satisfactory — and the foundation for a safer 2027 and beyond.
It is with these measurable and verifiable indices in mind that the Honourable Minister of Defence, General Christopher Gwabin Musa (Rtd), stated that the Tinubu administration has merited 70 percent in security since the emergence of the Tinubu presidency.
Colonel Timothy Antigha (rtd) is a Specialist in Military Public Information and Counterterroism
